The +10 Club #5

Written by Thommo on February 19 2019

Every season we search for the one or two premium players who will jump in average sharply and set our teams aside from the competition. Picking the same premium midfielders as everyone else can be handy for winning your Supercoach Leagues but to win the overall prize you need an edge on the competition.

So this season I thought I would look at those players just below the elite level who look primed for a break-out or are under-priced due to injury. These players will make a 10 point, or greater, improvement for their Supercoaches and shall therefore join the indomitable +10 Club!

The fifth inductee is an obvious and much discussed option:

Awwwww! Who doesn’t like a mid who likes dogs?

Name: Dustin Martin
Team: Richmond
Position: MID
Price: $563,800
Bye round: 13
2018 average: 103.9ppg
2018 games played: 21

Why will Martin improve by 10 points?

Obviously, Dustin Martin has played at the elite level before, averaging 120ppg in 2017 before he suffered a considerable fall from grace in 2018. So let’s consider why his performance suffered last season.

The most publicized reason was that Dusty spent more time forward which resulted in a drop in his disposal count. After averaging 30 possessions and 4 tackles in 2017, Dusty only averaged 26 possessions and 2 tackles in 2018. What was particularly annoying was that this extra forward time wasn’t effective given he kicked 2 less goals in 2018 than he did in 2017. To make matters worse, although he spent more time forward (29% of game time), it wasn’t quite up to the required 35% of time required to achieve forward-midfield dual status.

The Tigers’ game plan also hurt Dusty’s Supercoach scoring. Their amazingly efficient game-style involved a ridiculously low number of possessions per goal and subsequently very low Supercoach scores. As a result, few Tigers’ premiums improved their Supercoach averages in 2018.

Finally, Dusty also appeared to spend many games in cruise control. Often when the Tigers were controlling matches and they didn’t need him to perform, he didn’t bother. He made reference to this in a recent Herald-Sun article where he stated that he was “going through the motions” after the great heights of 2017.

I know these all seem like reasons why Dusty won’t improve, but I can see things changing in 2019. After falling to the Pies in the Preliminary Final, Martin should rediscover some of that drive he lacked in 2018. He claims he is a “motivated person” so he should feel the burn of defeat a driving force.

The arrival of Tom Lynch should also change the Tigers forward structure and free him up. With Lynch and Riewoldt sharing forward and centre-half forward, Dusty will still spend time forward but Richmond will finally be able to kick a competitive total without his talents. Hopefully that will add up to more midfield time.

Why won’t he improve?

6-6-6

No, not the devil, unless you wish to consider Gillon McLachlan and his rule tampering satanic. Instead I am referring to the new starting positions where 6 players must start in the forward line, midfield and backline. In 2018 Richmond actually started with 5 forwards, 6 mids and 7 defenders 71% of the time, the most of any side. Could the new starting positions see Dustin Martin moved forward at centre bounces more often or am I overthinking things again?

The other two factors that worry me are Dimma Hardwick’s mindset and Dusty’s motivation. Like most coaches, Hardwick doesn’t want to be too reliant on one player and he seemed quite satisfied for the Tigers to win without Dusty racking up possessions. If you watched Hardwick’s press conferences in 2018, he was very defensive of Martin’s performance all season, happy to be winning without Dusty dominating. With that mindset, you would expect that Hardwick will again send Dusty forward for a decent percentage of game time, even without the new 6-6-6 starting position rule. Will that limit his scoring ability again?

As mentioned above, Dustin Martin struggled with motivation in 2018. He makes reference to how winning and success is fun, but friends and family are more important. A good life lesson, but not exactly the words of man on fire! In 2017 he “don’t argued” through tags like they weren’t there but in 2018 he didn’t seem prepared to fight them off. Martin was held to sub-100 scores by taggers on 4 occasions, the worst of them 45 points by Levi Greenwood in the Preliminary Final. (To be fair, he did carry an injury into the Preliminary final which clearly hampered his performance).

With that result, surely the taggers will come for him in 2019 once more and early in the season: He has a rendezvous with Levi Greenwood in Round 2!

Prediction

115ppg!

While I am worried that Dustin Martin won’t ever return to the highs of 2017, he should at least return to uber-premium status. He has an awesome ceiling and only needs to fight through those pesky tags better than he did in 2018 to achieve a Supercoach scoring spike.

Worst case scenario he scores at his 2018 level and needs an upgrade!

Who likes to eat their Chinese with Chopstix?

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21 thoughts on “The +10 Club #5”

  1. Great write up Thommo, (That’s auto texted now!!) I had him, then didn’t have him, his been in an out the past month.Just think Merrett and Steele are better bets at this stage.2017 was an incredible year from him, he won everything , then the massive money came and kudos to him he stayed at the Tiges for less but still a lot!! I had a feeling then that the motivation would be off a % or 2. West Coast devised the ‘handflick’ last year which made him tackleable and other teams took note.The only thing that swayed me to have him was that he was carrying something the last half of last year but are we sure of what that was? Lynch will be an interesting addition.Maybe more midfield time for him.

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    1. Thanks Joestar (also auto texted). I am the same with Dusty, just not 100% sold on him. My concern is the scoring and price dip he has every season, including 2017, between rounds 8 and 12. I am starting to think I can wait to see how he handles Levi in round 2 and then grab him cheap around byes.

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  2. I think you’ve summarised what we expect perfectly – minimum is what he’s priced at, and 115ppg is acceptable. Loving the +10 club articles.

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  3. Hilarious!

    Locked him in at the end of last season. He took that knock in Rd4 or 5 last year that clearly affected his output. Family issues can’t be overstated. Lynch’s arrival has to be positive.

    I started him last year and while obviously disappointed, kept him til the end.

    Can’t see him going backwards. Can see him returning to uber status. Nothing to lose, lots to gain.

    Thanks Thommo. Very funny piece.

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  4. Absolutely love this! Wrote on twitter recently that I thought Dusty would be bouncing back this year, and for the same reasons. At his price tag he is a too hard to ignore option. Also having the VC for Rd1 against Carlton is hard to pass up. Great write up Thommo!!

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  5. Great write up Thommo! I’ve locked him up since the end of last season also, and although he may not be as consistent as guys like Merrett at the same price, I feel more comfortable knowing I have a guy who can deliver captain-like scores more frequently. And with the amount of Thursday and Friday night games early on, he is a great VC option

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  6. Neither Merrett or Dusty for me as I don’t feel they are in the top 10 mids…picking one or both will probably require a trade or two at some point…one argument for these two and Crouch for that matter is that they all play R13.

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  7. Top 10 Mids of SC relevance for me are Macrae, Fyffe, Kelly, Neale, Cripps, Oliver, Coniglio, Gaff, Treloar a bloke called Danger plus a couple of others before Merrett and Dusty. Have had them both in the past with mixed results. Each to their own I guess.

    I will be starting with the first 5 mentioned above and will target the next 3 or 4. Danger will get a gig in the forward line.

    Trying to avoid “group think” also at the start of the year. I like the idea of both Macrae and Kelly having only around 20 % or so ownership and in a small way depending on team structure become a POD early in the season

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    1. i see you don’t like thinking outside the box geronimo You’ve just named the exact top 10 most expensive mids and said they’re the top ten scorers and mids of relevance…. surely you can do better than that mate?

      Crouch to bounce back?
      The smooth operator of bontempelli?
      beams to wind back the clock to his 115+ avg days?

      Merrett & Dusty will be VERY close to top 10 one if not both will be inside it imo.

      Fyfe not durable enough will miss games through injury/suspension
      Oliver a double shoulder reco
      Gaff suspended for 3 rounds
      cognilio wont make the top 10
      treloar so many unknowns in that scary good midlfield with beams

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  8. Not only that Nateo, the SC gods have a extreme dislike for Treloar, I remember a game last year where Macrae played in a swamp and still managed to rack up 170 + and that was without hitting a target!! Treloar seems to dominate games but CD put the cue in the rack once he gets to 105-110.That’s why his so consistent with his scores.

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    1. Treloar has to learn to kick and tackle. Simple as that. But I like Geronimo’s list. We need to remain calm among all the noise to back the real premos. Dusty is in my team and Zerret is in my watchlist but the real reason is because I perceive them to be cheap at this price. Should that be enough reason to have them start?
      Good analysis Thommo but you are making me doubt even more

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      1. Interesting point Jennot, I guess that’s where the raffle is.We’d all like the top 22 players in our side at year’s end but alas 13 of the top 22 were all mids and we get to ‘guess’ who the top 8 are.We start that guess with 4 – 5 mids.It’s a fair guess that last years 13 won’t be this year’s 13. As Geronimo states trying to avoid group think has it’s Merrets (poor pun intended!)That’s Supercoach.

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        1. Is it too early for some polls?!
          Top 4/5 by position would be great. Should have a big enough sample of SCTers now to get some meaningful results.

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  9. Just a heads up … I’ve just heard from one of Tigers’ top members that Dusty is likely to spend as much as 40% up FWD in 2019. Has anyone else heard similar?!
    I’ve dumped Dusty on this!
    I do know another member who goes to EVERY training session so have just texted her. Will let you know if I hear different.

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