The Big Bang Theory

Written by Big Sexy on March 7 2011

….. Well it’s a ‘theory’, put together by avid reader Catblitz.  He’s gone to a lot of trouble and I thought worthy of it’s own post….. so feel free to analyse, comment…. or pick apart.
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I truly believe this year going with a mid-ranged could pay of quite handsomely

At the moment, I’m thinking in Defense, your mid-range hopes are:

Grimes, Connors, Urquhart, N Krakouer, Astbury, R Tarrant (if he stays away from injuries)

If they steer clear of injuries, all of the above are genuine players who will start in their prospective 22’s and will improve as the year goes by.

I’ve gone with Grimes and Connors and I’m considering N Krakouer and R Tarrant.

Through the midfield, your mid-ranged options are as follows:

Rockliff, Beams, J Kennedy, Cotchin, Dalziell, Sloane, Anthony, Zaharakis, Dangerfield, Higgins, Duncan, Gysberts and A Krakouer.

I went with the mid-range forward/midfield DPP’s: Dangerfield, Higgins, Duncan and possibly A Krakouer, I also went with Kennedy – I’m pretty sure he could average around 25 disposals a game this year which means he will break into the elite. I expect a 100 average by mid-season.

Dangerfield, Higgins, and Duncan could all increase their averages in my opinion if they don’t get injured.
Dangerfield from 69 to 85
Higgins from 78 to 95
Duncan from 58 to 80
Kennedy from 81 to 100

Obviously there are no guarantees but if it pays off, you’ll save a ton of dough and still match it with everyone on the scoreboard as well.

In the ruck:
Zac Smith is a no-brainer
Derickx for me a good chance to be Richmond’s second ruckman with Vickery to play most of the year in the foward line.

In the forward line your mid-ranged players are as follows:

J Grant, Zaharakis, Higgins, Dangerfield, Duncan, Astbury, Petrie, Veszpremi, Krakouer, and Gambl.

Keeping this strategy in mind, what you want to do is work out what you could spend with the money instead. For example:
I want to buy Higgins and Kennedy through the midfield as i have mentioned above. I want Kennedy to score 100 and Higgins to score me 95 so together they are worth 195 points (at least i hope they are). Together they cost me about 790k so with 790k i could also buy Ablett for 632k + a rookie. While Ablett might score me 125 points a week, a rookie will only score me say 70 points a week on average. Higgins and Kennedy will be more consistent than a rookie meaning they’ll score high most weeks while a rookie will score a low score here and there so points-wise I don’t lose anything for going with Kennedy and Higgins but that said they need to perform to my standard of 100 and 95.

So now i have the option to keep or sell my midranged players. By Round 10, Kennedy may be worth 455k and Higgins 445k. I can choose to sell both for 900k or just sell one or I may choose to keep both. While if I went with Ablett and a rookie, I would only have maybe 260k to spend. With 260k I can’t buy a gun so I’m forced to sell off another rookie so i have 520k while I have 900k the other way. I’ll also get that 250k free so i could have 1.15m to spend and at Round 10, midfielders will drop in price so I’ll save money there. I’ll have two keepers regardless of which way I go: either for Ablett and a rookie or Kennedy and Higgins but i will possibly save myself some money.

The other hot topic is rookies:
Defence:
B Smith
Coad
Buckley
Mckernan
Toy
Duigan
Hibberd
Heppell
Tape
Lower
Batchelor

Midfield:
Swallow
Harris
Heppell
Hibberd
conca
Jacobs
Atley
Contin
M Wallis
Liberatore
Smith
Mzungu

Ruck:
Bailey
Moran
Derickx
Zac Smith

Forward:
Mzungu
Richardson
Michie
Prestia
Darling
Tapscott

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26 thoughts on “The Big Bang Theory”

  1. If you have Ablett from the start (Bad move imo) you wouldn’t be trading him out (unless he gets injured) because he’s a keeper. The real question is how many trades can you afford to upgrade these mid-pricers to keepers (Studs) during the year.

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  2. Your ‘theory’ about picking up mid rangers is a valid one, one I have had since this years comp started, but thankfully my selections ( I have 2 or 3 mids rangers that I think will be the difference for me) are not same as yours, I think you’ve overlooked a few players due to your ‘man-crush’ on Kennedy and Higgins ( I have Ken but not touching Higgins btw)

    Think I’ll keep my cards to myself for now, they might all blow up on me but you gotta gamble to win.
    Good article too, cheers for sharing.

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  3. Courtesy of Walesy at TS:

    Alright, we’ve been talking a lot about structures recent. Mainly because you can review teams until you’re blue in the face, but until you’ve seen the NAB, combined with what’s happened over the pre-season, it can all blow up in your face.

    Thank goodness that the NAB starting this weekend though!

    But! That’s not what I’m wanting to talk about here. No, what I’m wanting to do is discuss the merits of the Gun and Rookies (GnR) approach, over the mid-pricers approach.

    Now, I can already here some of you thinking- “But I plan to have a mixture of the two strategies”, but for the sake of this article, if you’re looking at running less than 4 rookies on the field, you’re mid-pricing.

    So, your typical GnR team is gunna look like this
    BAC- 5 prems, 2 rookies (Yes, Otten is cheaper than Swallow- he’s a rookie)
    MID- 2/3 Premiums, 3/4 rookies
    RUC- 1/2 Premiums, 1/0 Mid pricers (Hi Petrie!)
    FWD- 5 Premiums, 1 Cheapie, 1 Rookie.

    In short, you got a bunch of premiums and an absolute minimum amount of midpricers.

    Meanwhile, a midprice squad comes in two flavours, either they are stacked full of your true mid-priced players- your Foleys, Cotchens, Zaharakis’, Knights- or they are the hybrid team that still has a fair few rookies, but is cheaping out on the premiums, drafting a division of players know as sub-premiums (Or Jabroni Premiums, depending on what circles you travel.)

    Now, historically, these methods have both been viable options, but I want to run through a couple of numbers to show just how difficult it actually is to pull of a mid-priced squad these days.

    Ok, consider the following statistics-

    Last year, Barlow increase his average by a massive 95

    Pods increased his by 76.

    3 players increased by 60+, all rookies.

    17 players increased by 50+, The only non-rookies were Waters and Connors. Both however were cheaper than Swallow this year, so I’m gunna count them as rookies due to their pricing.

    28 players increased by 40+ points. The only non rookies were Malceski and Mumford. Both excellent picks.

    28 players increased by 30+, The non rookies were Staker, Hannebery, Macaffer, Leroy Jetta, Jack Mckenzie and Kepler Bradley.

    Now, this is where it’s interesting, picking these guys, while great- is really hard. And even then, the only keeper of the lot was Jack- and that’s as a #6 barely. Further to that though, how many of these boys were on anyones radar last year?

    55 players increased by 20+. A good half of them were genuine midprice improvers.
    Jacobs, Burgoyne, McDonald, Sidebottom, Hodge, Hunt, Ballantyne, Garlett, Logan, Hanley, Adams, Steven, Riewoldt, Rischitellu, McEvoy, Leuenberger, Hille, Edwards, Murphy, Ladson, Mayne, L. Brown, Thomas, Wells, Franklin, Daisy, Doughlas and Greenwood.

    Now, this is where the value lives. Finding the Sub-premiums that break into premiums. Some are obvious, ala Hodge and Franklin. But when you consider the amount of players priced between $300k and $500k, these guys are still just a tiny handful. And for the most part, these guys will *still* reqire an upgrade. So there is still value in picking up Jabroni Premiums, but it’s difficult.

    Increase total Rookies Non-Rookies
    90+ 1 (1) 1 (1) 0
    70+ 1 (2) 1 (2) 0
    60+ 3 (5) 3 (5) 0
    50+ 17 (22) 17 (22) 0
    40+ 28 (40) 26 (38) 2 (2/40)
    30+ 28 (68) 21 (59) 7 (9/68)
    20+ 55 (123) 27 (86) 28 (35/123)

    In short, what we see here is that picking a genuine mid-price improver that is going to value enough to make your team some decent coin- or at least, do enough on the field, is a very difficult thing to do. In short, of the 500+ players who were priced above rookie price, only 1% of those are going to make it worth your while (30+ increase), with a whole 6% looking to increase by 20+.

    Meanwhile, you’ve got a 30% hit rate on rookies increasing by 20+, 20% at 30+ and over 10% of all rookies increasing by more than 40+

    Combine that with the fact that you also have a long line of bench positions to fill, and extra trades to fix any mistakes, means that you’re gunna have to mess up pretty badly to not hit a bucketload of gold in those rookies.

    Now, salary is one thing, but SuperCoach is all about points. So let’s take a look at the effect of points.

    Say I have a fairly golden run with a mid-ish priced strategy. All my Jabroni Prems (10) go up by 10 each and my 5 midpricers go up by 20. (I’ve also got a couple of real prems which keep their average, and a pair of the highest scoring rookies which cancel out with the other guy.)

    So in that, you’re looking at- on field, getting an increase of 200ppg on your initial spend. Keep in mind, it is extremely difficult to achieve this kind of perfection in a starting list.

    Next up comes our typical GnR guy. Now, let’s make his a little more realistic. He’s got 14 premiums, 2 midpricers and 6 rookies (though we’ll go with 4- again, taking out the top 2 that the other guy had.)

    Now, 14 premiums breaking even across the board is probably a likely thing to happen, some go up- some go down, we know they’ll lose salary but that’s ok.

    Next, the 2 mid pricers/Cheapies – we’ll give them a conservative 15 ppg increase each (considering they were the “pick” of the midpriced bunch)

    Next, we’ll take our 4 rookies, including the 11 that we have on the bench and apply the above logic to them. (keeping in mind that this is simply closing your eyes and picking rookies out of a hat- not hand choosing the best of the best.)

    Now, 30% of our 15 rookies will score an increase of 20+, so that’s 5. 20% will score more than 30+ – which is 3. while 10% is going to score an increase of over 40+

    So lets add that up. 1 40+, 2 30+ and a 20+ player all on the field.

    Combine that with the two midpricers and you’re looking at an increase of 150ppg. From closing your eyes and taking a random selection of rookies. Choose wisely and I can’t see why you wouldn’t be looking at 190ppg increase. Versus 200ppg from a near perfect selection of midpricers.

    Further adding fuel to this fire is the Gold Coast and the delicious rookies they are beinging to the table- with the offsetting nature that the Sub rule could be wrecking havoc on our rookies.

    All in all though, I think the idea of running a midpriced team is getting harder and harder to stay competitive with as everyone tries to squeeze every last inch of points out of their team.

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  4. i stopped reading halfway thru but i want an opinion on sharrod wellingham, seems to always bob up with a few goals while possibly pickin up 20 possies ala grandfinal replay

    any thoughts as him being a smokey/bargain in the mid price midfield range?

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  5. My structure is similar to Deano’s but with a twist:

    DEF- 4 Premiums, 1 Cheapie, 2 rookies (Yes, Otten is rookie price)
    MID- 2 Premiums, 2 DPP Premiums (Chappy and Lids), 2 rookies
    RUC- 2 Premiums
    FWD- 4 Premiums, 1 Cheapie, 2 Rookies.

    Same amount of rookies but use the DPP for coverage and flexibility. My plan is to swap them into Fwd and Def during the upgrade season (rd 10 – 15).

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