….. Well it’s a ‘theory’, put together by avid reader Catblitz. He’s gone to a lot of trouble and I thought worthy of it’s own post….. so feel free to analyse, comment…. or pick apart.
I truly believe this year going with a mid-ranged could pay of quite handsomely
At the moment, I’m thinking in Defense, your mid-range hopes are:
Grimes, Connors, Urquhart, N Krakouer, Astbury, R Tarrant (if he stays away from injuries)
If they steer clear of injuries, all of the above are genuine players who will start in their prospective 22’s and will improve as the year goes by.
I’ve gone with Grimes and Connors and I’m considering N Krakouer and R Tarrant.
Through the midfield, your mid-ranged options are as follows:
Rockliff, Beams, J Kennedy, Cotchin, Dalziell, Sloane, Anthony, Zaharakis, Dangerfield, Higgins, Duncan, Gysberts and A Krakouer.
I went with the mid-range forward/midfield DPP’s: Dangerfield, Higgins, Duncan and possibly A Krakouer, I also went with Kennedy – I’m pretty sure he could average around 25 disposals a game this year which means he will break into the elite. I expect a 100 average by mid-season.
Dangerfield, Higgins, and Duncan could all increase their averages in my opinion if they don’t get injured.
Dangerfield from 69 to 85
Higgins from 78 to 95
Duncan from 58 to 80
Kennedy from 81 to 100
Obviously there are no guarantees but if it pays off, you’ll save a ton of dough and still match it with everyone on the scoreboard as well.
In the ruck:
Zac Smith is a no-brainer
Derickx for me a good chance to be Richmond’s second ruckman with Vickery to play most of the year in the foward line.
In the forward line your mid-ranged players are as follows:
J Grant, Zaharakis, Higgins, Dangerfield, Duncan, Astbury, Petrie, Veszpremi, Krakouer, and Gambl.
Keeping this strategy in mind, what you want to do is work out what you could spend with the money instead. For example:
I want to buy Higgins and Kennedy through the midfield as i have mentioned above. I want Kennedy to score 100 and Higgins to score me 95 so together they are worth 195 points (at least i hope they are). Together they cost me about 790k so with 790k i could also buy Ablett for 632k + a rookie. While Ablett might score me 125 points a week, a rookie will only score me say 70 points a week on average. Higgins and Kennedy will be more consistent than a rookie meaning they’ll score high most weeks while a rookie will score a low score here and there so points-wise I don’t lose anything for going with Kennedy and Higgins but that said they need to perform to my standard of 100 and 95.
So now i have the option to keep or sell my midranged players. By Round 10, Kennedy may be worth 455k and Higgins 445k. I can choose to sell both for 900k or just sell one or I may choose to keep both. While if I went with Ablett and a rookie, I would only have maybe 260k to spend. With 260k I can’t buy a gun so I’m forced to sell off another rookie so i have 520k while I have 900k the other way. I’ll also get that 250k free so i could have 1.15m to spend and at Round 10, midfielders will drop in price so I’ll save money there. I’ll have two keepers regardless of which way I go: either for Ablett and a rookie or Kennedy and Higgins but i will possibly save myself some money.
The other hot topic is rookies:
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