MJ is back for another season folks, and will be bringing the well-received ‘Fallen Premium’ articles again this year! Over the course of this week, I’ll be releasing a series of preseason editions and will give you all a taste for what’s to come from me in season 2013. For those who weren’t following SCT last season, I term Fallen Premiums as guys who come with a discounted price tag in 2013 after injury, poor form, tagging, or being played out of position (FURL) held them back in 2012. Despite having a relatively poor year, they have demonstrated the ability to score consistently at a high level in past seasons.
Brendan Goddard $541,500; 2012 average 101.2, 2011 average 107.8
Just about every man and his dog have had this SuperCoach warhorse in their side all pre-season, so there’s really not much to say about him. Last year he had his worst SC season since 2007, however it is anticipated that he’ll spend more time in the midfield at his new life in Bomberland and if he returns to an average anywhere near the 130.2 of 2010 you’d have no chance if you went without him.
Bryce Gibbs $509,800; 2012: 95.2, 2011: 103
Frustrating many coaches last season, Gibbs dropped his output by 8 points per game in 2012 after Brett Ratten tormented us all by playing him in defence. The silver lining is that we can list him as a defender once more in 2013 and if Malthouse continues to play him in midfield as he has done through the NAB Cup, I have no doubt this young man will return to his 100+ average we saw in 2009-11.
Sam Fisher $444,100; 2012: 83.0, 2011: 99.2
One of the first picked in any SC team for so many years, Sam Fisher held a 90+ average for six successive seasons before dropping substantially to 83 in 2012. It’d be a brave man to suggest he’ll return to such a level turning 31 this year, but Heath Scotland is a testament to the fact that old blokes can still average well in defence after plenty doubted him last season.
Greg Broughton $441,900; 2012: 82.6, 2011: 92.6
I know many won’t touch him again, but without Ross Lyon there to haunt him, Greg may have a new lease on life up on the Gold Coast. Hasn’t set the world on fire in preseason, so I’d still tread with caution, but definitely one to watch in the early rounds, as we can’t forget he averaged 98.6 in both 2010 and 2011. Also a FWD.
Chris Newman $412,000; 2012: 77.0, 2011: 98.8
Newman may well see a change of role this season. From what I’ve seen and according to reports, Hardwick looks set to play the former captain on the wing and up forward, kicking 3 goals in the final quarter against Hawthorn last week. Matthew Richardson nearly won a Brownlow when released onto the wing in the latter stage of his career! With 4 years of 98+ averages under his belt, the man knows how to score well in the SuperCoach game. Nearly squeezed his way into my side at this price.
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WELCOME BACK, MJ!!!!!!
As usual MJ, exceptionally well written!
Goddard/Gibbs locked & loaded for me
Fisher seems slow to me……not this year!
Broughton………..would have to do something super special for me to put his name back in the hunt ever again when talking fantasy footy
Newman has been in & out of my side all pre-season….at the moment it’s Heppell taking his spot.
MJ, not that Adcock is a fallen premium he did average 110 in 2007 playing 22 games, the consistenancy of playing 20/21 games in 2011/12 gives me thoughts he may just pop back over the 100 average…..since 2007 110 ave, he’s evaraged 75.5 in 08/ 87.3 in 09/ 68.4 in 2010 ( but had injuries & only played 9 games ) but averaged 90.4 in 2011 & 89.9 in 2012…..with him being co-captain & at $482k I wonder what your thoughts are on him for 2013??
Cheers Catta
Fantastic right up MJ! Fisher has been in and out of my side so many times and I still cant decide. But really think for his price I should have him in…
Nice post, MJ.
Fisher’s days are done I think. He has lost more than a step as he has aged and Watters’ showed last year that he wants him playing as a KP defender. His ability to score in the past (when I used to grab him every year as well!) was due to Lyon’s confidence in him to zone of at will, something that is now gone. Interestingly, as much as we all attack him, losing Dawson also helped to hurt Fisher as a SC scorer, as Zac always took a KP forward before Fisher…
Newman is the one that intrigues me. As you say, he used to be an elite (and highly consistent) scorer from defense. He has said that he trained as a wingman all pre-season and that is where he has lined up every game of the NAB so far. Last year he got defensive tags most weeks and that is what killed his scoring. On a wing (so effectively with the midfield group) you have the likes of Cotchin and Deledio to be tagged before him and I don’t think any team will realistically tag three midfielders in one game, and therefore I see him scoring very well in 2013.
The only problem that I have is fitting him in. There are three-four decent rookie options in the backs and, personally, I believe that there are four other backmen that pick themselves this year. I don’t mind the idea of having five locked in backs from the start, but the issue is the complete dearth of forward rookies this year, meaning that many of us are spending extra on the low-mid priced players (your Varcoe’s, Byrnes’, etc). If only a rookie forward bolter or two had emerged them Newman would have been in my side for sure. Still trying to wrangle a way to get him in.
Can’t wait for the footy to start so the pre-season decision agony can end!
Have Goddard, Gibbs and Newman locked in.
After a quick poll:
TU – Newman
TD – Enright
Cheers.
Catta; I never considered Adcock at all. Yes, he did average 110 in 2007, but since then has never gone over 90.4, which suggests it’s unlikely he’ll return to such high output. A solid selection, but I reckon Pearce Hanley and Mitch Golby have more upside if you’re after a Lions defender. Both have been in my side at some stage this preseason, but have not made the final cut.
Welcome back MJ. Last year your advice to grab ROK at around $460k was gold … looking forward to more good advice this year.
my backline looks like
goddard, h shaw, gibbs, hepps, vlastuin, goodes ( docherty, terlich)
i really thought of newman but heppell is a local boy so im biased. He is just a cool character and will bring his game to the next level in 2013.
the extra 38 k would be handy though. especially if they are to average about the same through the length of the season. newman has a few years on hepps so he may be “managed” differently. dyson will play all games unrested where newman may get rested
A gem of an article straight up, good to have you back MJ. Managed to stay away much longer then the rest of us. Dunno how you do it personally 😀
Goddard and gibbs locked, newman would be great but no room for him
Goddard & Gibbs were 1st picked this year, will leave Heppell in the side but may burn a trade to get Newman if he’s the goods after the first 3 rounds.