The Fallen Premiums R11, 2013

Written by MJ on June 11 2013

This week I’ll only be looking at players who have just had their bye, as I don’t believe it is wise to trade in any R12 or R13 bye premiums this round, when there are already bye-free players available.

Defenders:

Grant Birchall ($417,800; -$88,600, Ave 96.8, BE 104) Many have labelled him the burn man this season, but for those who don’t have him it’s about as cheap as he’ll come. Hit back to form with a 118 against Melbourne last match. Has Carlton this week and I’m slightly concerned about the potential Armfield forward tag, but has scored well against them in the past with 113 and 91 in his last two against the Blues.

Hamish Hartlett ($413,300; -$75,700, Ave 90.2, BE 69) At the bottom of his price curve now. Like Birchall, many coaches picked him up at well over $500k. It’s a ballsy move, but if you think he’ll start shrugging off the tag it could pay off, and may well be a risk worth taking at this price. I’d get Birchall over Hartlett though.

*Pearce Hanley ($516k, BE 161) & Paul Duffield ($515k, BE 122) can also be bought this week, however may be able to be obtained for under $500k next week.

Midfielders:

Trent Cotchin ($550,700; -$71,400, Ave 111.6, BE 151) The Tigers captain has been slightly down on last years numbers, but that may have been due to an injury niggle in R5, before he was given a rest in R7. Was very quiet against the Eagles in R10, but Richmond’s next 5 games are against bottom 8 sides. Can be bought cheaper next week though.

Brett Deledio ($549,400; -$74,700, Ave 110.2, BE 129) Flip a coin between him and Cotchin really. Deledio’s worst four scores this season have come in Richmond’s losses. On the contrary, he’s averaged 130.3 in Tiger victories. With that favourable run of games to come, I’d expect him to pump out some big numbers in the next month.

*I can’t class them as ‘Fallen Premiums’, but I would definitely have a very good look at the Freo midfield trio of Fyfe, Barlow & to a lesser extent Mundy. It’s no secret how good Fremantle’s run home is, and I’d expect a few of these to feature in Motts’ Movers articles in the coming months.

Rucks:

Ivan Maric ($454,000; -$152,900, Ave 93.4, BE 114) The rest might be just what the doctor ordered for the Flying Mullet. Started the year off with 4 straight hundreds, before averaging 80.4 in his last 5 games, looking tired and weary from that ankle problem he’s been carrying.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-05-31/maric-fresh-deledio-fit
This article validates Maric as a decent pick for mine. If he could return to average anywhere near the 113 per game he achieved last season, he’d be the bargain of the year at this price.

*One of Motts’ favourites, Will ‘Tonneson’ Minson ($572k, BE 103) is your other ruck selection I would consider this week. At the top end of his price curve, but at least you can be sure of what you’re getting.

Forwards:

Lance Franklin ($458,400; -$159,600, Ave 88.9, BE 97) Still hanging around at this price. For lack of other options in the forward line this week, Buddy gets another run in the Fallen Premiums.

*Popular picks Dustin Martin ($530k, BE 175) and Tom Rockliff ($527k, BE 165) are both bye free, but could both be under $500k next week. Also look for Stevie J ($594k, BE 163) and Jimmy Bartel ($565k, BE 132) post-R12.

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67 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums R11, 2013”

  1. Great write up there MJ. Tigers fans will be keen to see improvement from three of their guns in the second half of the season.

    I need your advice MJ … I am looking for an mid upgrade this week. I am looking at Barlow, Fyfe, Lids, S.Mitchell and Griffen. I already have Cotch. I am leaning towards Barlow as I like his consistency while the others seem to have had price dips this year. Any advice as to who I should choose?

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  2. I’m looking at getting in Cotchin next week, but feel like I’m relying on his BE of 151 a bit too much. I need JOM to be within $128k of him next week. At the moment the difference is $135.6k.

    AC projects he’ll drop $18.2k with a 110, and JOM will drop $1.1k with a 87. So I’d be able to afford it with $9.5k left over.

    Is this too risky? Screws me over if Cotchin smashes it and JOM hits the wall.

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  3. I planned to get Cotchin in this week (along with Minson and Birchall) .Then planned on getting Jobe in after his bye. However, I am now considering getting Swan this week and Cotchin next, thus completing my midfield a week earlier. This would leave Jobe on the outer (Jobes BE is too big to consider him this week).

    Mids would then be GAJ, Pendles, JPK, Danger, Murph, Priddis, Cotchin, Swan or Jobe (Mitchell, Hrovat).

    Thoughts?
    T/U Jobe
    T/D Swan

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  4. Which trades look more beneficial for this week:
    Thumbs Up:
    Terlich – Barlow (move Goodes to DEF)
    Jacobs – Minson

    Thumbs Down:
    Terlich – Birchall
    Jacobs – Minson

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  5. Has Motts ever mentioned he bought a car off Will Minsons Dad? I’m sure he has at some point… 😉

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  6. Hey guys,

    Looking at my final upgrade in the forward line. Getting rid of JJK and looking at either Jarryd Roughead or Jordan Lewis. Both should average around the ton for the year and both are fairly durable.

    Lewis is a bit cheaper, however Roughy allows me Ruck DPP with Cox or Nic Nat. Can I get your thoughts on this one please.

    Thumbs up: Roughead
    Thumbs down: Lewis

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  7. Hey guys,

    Should I go Whitfield to Barlow, Cotchin or Griffen? Or instead of Griffen, I could go Boyd as a cheap pickup and he would be my M6 or 7.

    However, if I end up going Griffen, I wont be able to get in Jelwood next week.

    Thoughts?

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  8. After MJ’s last minute panic trade in getting a problematic JS Ben Kennedy in last week to beat me, I’m looking at three upgrades this week.

    Welcome Birch, Cotchin and LilNat.

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  9. Earlier I thought I’d upgrade Vlastuin or Goodes to Hartlett. But now, why waste a trade? Goodes is averaging just as much and Vlastuin has been better than most ‘premiums’ over the last four weeks. Plus Richmond has a fairly easy run home and he’s unlikely to get tagged (Cotch, Lids, Dusty). Will upgrade Thurlow or Clarke in a couple weeks instead……

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  10. I’ve got round 400k to do whatever I want. Was thinking to get rid of JOM for either Ball or anyone else (Barlow, Fyfe?).
    T/U – JOM -> Barlow/Fyfe
    T/D – JOM -> Ball/Gibbs
    Rd 13 will not be a problem.

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  11. Hey guys, just a follow up on my other question, would you go barlow or fyfe for JOM.
    T/U – JOM -> Fyfe
    T/D – JOM -> Barlow

    Both their numbers are extremely consistent with barlow probably copping more tags in the future. The only thing you could say is that maybe Barlow is more solid than Fyfe in that he is less likely to get injured (Fyfe shoulder concerns?). Easy late draw makes them both very appealing.

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  12. Terlich – Birchall
    Rowe – Nicholls
    Kommer – Hrovat

    going to get J Selwood, JP Kennedy and Duffman next week. Not sold on Swan this year and already have 6 prem mids – Ablett, Pendles, Danger, Jack, Dellidio and Cotchin. Team pretty much done then.

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  13. hey guys already have nic nat and roughead
    hoping on having 1 fwd and 1 ruck to alternate if needed.
    upgrading hannath or macaffer shortly to either a FWD or RUCK premium
    rucks: will minson or ivan maric, who would you decide?
    forwards: opting for dustin martin given richmond’s run home.
    thoughts on who you would choose???

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  14. Hey I got an idea for a segment use could do if youse had the time or could get ahold of this knowledge
    Like say the most traded in/out players of the week ?

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