The Fallen Premiums – R11

Written by MJ on June 8 2017

Defence

Michael Hibberd $472K (+$70.6K) AVE 101.1, BE 55 – Surely your last chance to jump on the Hibberd train. He’s still at a discount to his current average of 101.1, so if he can continue the form it’ll still be a great purchase. Likely to be over $500K soon. With a history that shows him averaging 90+ in two separate seasons before, you’ve got to back the new Demon in that this form isย here to stay.

There’s not too much more on offer in defence at the current point in time, however with Lloyd and Laird succumbing to head injuries in their last game, they’ll bounce back with a handy price fall to bring them in reach for our final defensive upgrades.

Coming down:
Lloyd BE 165
Laird BE 164
Hurley BE 143
Rance BE 135

Midfield

Tom Rockliff $591K (-$12.4K) AVE 123.4, BE 50 – Despite being nearly $600K, this is the lowest point Rocky has been all season! He’s just one of three players averaging 120+ this year, in reputable company with Dangerfield and Sloane. A shoulder injury late in R8 didn’t stop him amassing 147 points to add to the 148 points in R7. His value is about to go through the roof.

Marc Murphy $542K (+$109.9K) AVE 113.8, BE 115 – Made it to $570K after R5, but has since cooled off a bit, dropping nearly $30K in price. Only scored 83 in his last game before the bye, but you can’t deny he’s been in just about career-best form in 2017, averaging a tick over 30 touches per match. Scoring 110+ points per game across the 2009-12 seasons, Murph is right back where we were used to seeing him in the SC fraternity. Other bye-free options around the same price includeย Bontempelliย orย Oliver, but both have higher breakevens at this point in time.

Coming down:
Neale BE 187
T.Mitchell BE 159
Bontempelli BE 158
Cripps BE 145

Ruck

Let me guess, you’ve come here to replace Sandilands, looking for a cheap ruck fresh off his bye round? Unfortunately, there’s not much to offer here unless you pay near enough full/fair price for Stefan Martin $521K, or Matthew Kreuzer $525K. Both are averaging in the low hundreds. The former faces some price falls in the short-term, scoring 62 in his last game, while Matty Kreuzer has been tearing up the track and has risen $127K since R1.

Coming down:
Martin BE 137
Mumford BE 128

Forward

Wallis and Dahlhaus snapped at Sovereign Hill ready to uncover some gold for your side.

Mitch Wallis $473K (-$0) AVE 110.5, BE 58 – Big risk having only seen him play two games of footy this year. A breakeven of just 58 points will see him rise in value, so we could find this is the cheapest he’ll be. Averaged 98 in 2015, before breaking his leg in 2016 in a horrific accident. Played midfield in both games, collecting 26 and 28 disposals. He’s there waiting for you if you’re ready to run the gauntlet.

Luke Dahlhaus $478K AVE 99.5, BE 114 – For those who don’t have him, you’re in the minority. One of the most popular picks from R1, Dahlaus has been on a downward price trend for a little while now, falling over $100K in the last month! Anyone withholding from purchasing, must be considering taking a position in the Dahlhaus stock. What comes down, will certainly come back up in his case.

Coming down:
Kennedy BE 157
Ryder BE 141
Heeney BE 136

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19 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – R11”

    1. I’d be wary of picking players who have been KO’d. In recently years Stef Martin, Riewoldt, Bartel and Brodie Smith have all struggled for the rest of the season after a big hit. Turns out Smith is just a spud, but the rest were inconsistent at best.

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  1. Cheers for that article, just wondering should I get hibberd at a discounted price and then wait for docherty to drop a bit in price or docherty at full price?

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    1. I have a feeling the only way we’ll see Docherty drop in price is if he sustains a concussion or other injury like Lloyd or Rockliff.

      That being said, he isn’t likely to go higher than 600k, so there’s no urgency to get him in immediately.

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    2. For overall rank then Docherty, league wins Hibberd (but does depend on your cash cow situation).
      Hibberd this week will probably put you in the same position next week with though with J Lloyd (value) vs Docherty (premo)
      Fortunately its both Hib & Doc in for me this week.

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      1. If I get hibberd this week, docherty next week and then Lloyd round 14 I’ll have a full premos team only thing is Adams will be moved into the mid as a ‘premo mid’, not sure if Adams shouldstay as a top 2 def though or as a m7(Fyfe ATM m8) Based on averages

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    1. I’ve heard over here in the west that it’s raining swans and dogs in Syd, if J Lloyd goes sub 100pts (more likely than unlikely imo) then might be too early $ wise but most will pull the trigger given R13 bye structure.

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  2. One midfield spot left.

    TU Rockliff this week (high price, big scores, injury risk).

    Or

    TD Bontempelli next week (value pick, extra cash, may not recover his early season form).

    Bontempelli will leave me with an extra 70k -80k, which will help with my remaining three upgrades.

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