The Fallen Premiums – R14, 2015

Written by MJ on July 8 2015

Defenders:

Bachar Houli $476,300 (+$28,900; AVE 100.92, BE 104, PTA 95.2) He’s the third best averaging defender this season, with very few managing the magical 100 ppg figure in our 2015 backlines. Coming in as the just the 11th most expensive backman despite his high average has many realising his value this week after a few rounds on the slide. A big effort of 117 in the win over the Giants has Houli back in form and ready to serve your team for the rest of the season.

Alex Rance $418,000 (-$58,200; AVE 93.23, BE 15, PTA 83.6) A huge last quarter meant that Rance finished with 111, coming to the elation of those who stole him at $402k last week. Still very cheap considering the average he’s sporting, priced ten points under value. A great selection if you’re missing the funds for his yellow and black partner in crime, Houli.

Wait for:
Tom McDonald $447k; BE 163
Luke Hodge $526k; BE 136
Josh Gibson $435k; BE 117
Nick Malceski $334k; BE 117

Midfielders:

Josh P. Kennedy $510,500 (-$101,700; AVE 107.00, BE 46, PTA 102) It would’ve been nice to jump on before last Thursday’s 143, but hindsight’s a wonderful thing isn’t it!? With two big tons behind him we have some degree of confidence that his three consecutive rounds of below-par performances (73, 62, 97) are out of the way now.

Steele Sidebottom $481,900 (-$126,300; AVE 98.71, BE 108, PTA 96.2) Many were shelling out more than $600k for him after R9 as a result of his 116 and 120 returning from injury. He’s since put in 59, 83 and 70, but rallied on Friday night with a 107 in the loss to Hawthorn. Would make for a big POD with plenty of potential. Let’s not forget his 113 average last year.

Jordan Lewis $444,000 (-$144,200; AVE 99.20, BE 58, PTA 88.8) It’s a big risk considering some of the games he’s come up with in 2015, but if you believe they’re mere anomalies, he could be a real bargain ready to be snapped up. 125 was impressive against the Pies and if there’s more of that to come he’s going to ourperform that price tag by a ridiculous amount (Currently priced at 88.8).

Wait for:
Gary Ablett $688k; BE 197
Brad Ebert $551k; BE 180
Brandon Ellis $527k; BE 139
Dylan Shiel $498k; BE 134
Callan Ward $572k; BE 128

Rucks:

Sam Jacobs $527,000 (-$93,100; AVE 101.50, BE 116, PTA 105.4) There’s really been not too much to get excited about in the ruck department for Fallen Premiums this year. In a week where some may be looking to cover the suspended Eminem duo in Maric and Martin, everyone’s essentially at top dollar! Jacobs is the cheapest premium ruck I’d consider at this point in time. You’re either going to have to spend big, or look at filling the void with McKernan as a FWD/RUC swing or Leuenberger as a BIG risk!

Wait for:
Patrick Ryder $407k; BE 117

Forwards:

Dayne Zorko $478,300 (-$53,600; AVE 90.46, BE 39, PTA 95.6) This will be his last mention here, as the spellbinding Dayne Zorko is about to rise above $500k. With the third highest 3-round average of any forward at 111.33, his stocks are rising rapidly.

Shane Edwards $449,100 (-$6,600; AVE 97.64, BE 78, PTA 89.8) As a Richmond supporter, I believe Edwards has been the Tigers most improved player this season and is a big chance at the Jack Dyer Medal. Once maligned by the Tiger faithful for his errant disposal, Shane has developed into a classy midfielder, as agile as anyone in a contested situation. This is now the cheapest he’s been all season after a few disappointing games after the bye. Coming out with a 121 against the Giants he’s got some form back and is well unders now.

Wait for:
Jimmy Bartel $549k; BE 229
Robbie Gray $528k; BE 178
Dustin Martin $583k; BE 170
Brendan Goddard $476k; BE 157
Luke Dahlhaus $489k; BE 148
Lance Franklin $515k; BE 138
Brett Deledio $568k; BE 129

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25 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – R14, 2015”

  1. I jumped on Burgoyne last week, came out with a 110. If you don’t have the cash for Hodge then Silk is still good value at $420k imo………

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  2. Waiting for Ryder, i’ll watch him closely tomorrow night and if he plays alright he will be my R/F. Only problem I need Hamling to play 1 more game and earn a bit more money.

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  3. Need to upgrade Cripps this week

    TU Heppell
    TD Lewis +100k

    Got Fyfe, Pendels, JPK, Wines, Joelwood, Armitage and Rocky

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  4. My midfield atm
    Fyfe, Pendlebury, Heppell, Griffen, Cripps, Wines, Sloane, Rockliff, (Ellis-Yolmen, Boston, Dumont)

    Will upgrade Griffen, Cripps, Sloane and Ellis-Yolmen to Ablett and 3 others.

    Which 3 are must haves
    Hannebery, Priddis, Beams, Dangerfield, Cotchin, Kennedy, Parker, Jack?

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  5. Keeping a keen eye on Ryan Griffen this week. A risky RISKY trade in but 450K-ish with a low BE. If he plays a lot of that half back flank/rebounder role like he did against Richmond it might help bump up his scoring back to consistent 100+ territory. Would still be under 500K next week.

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  6. Tonight’s sporting smorgasboard has got me more excited than a preschooler at a Wiggles concert, so I’m considering this ill-conceived long-term strategy:

    This week: Cripps -> Rance via Hodge
    Next week: Hamling or Pearce -> Daniel via Hodge and Krakouer
    The week after: Krakouer -> Ablett, which will give me

    Hodge, Murphy, Rance, Higgins, Gibson, Hibberd (BSmith, Hamling/Pearce)
    Fyfe, Pendles, Priddis, Parker, Ward, Ebert, Wines, GAJ (Steele, Lambert, Glenn)
    Goldstein, Naitanui (O”Brien)
    Dusty, Dahlhaus, TMitchell, Swan, Gray, Bontempelli (Daniel, Byrne)

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  7. Solid, Diz, pretty solid. Hold Hamling as bench cover, he looks fairly safe at the minute…….

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  8. Whats the latest on roughy? Worth holding or should we be looking to trade?

    Any feedback would be great, cheers!!

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  9. I think all 3 are risky options IMO, Brian. In saying that, risky selections can become very rewarding selections. Zorko’s lowest score in the past month has been a 91 against the doggies and has been in some great form. I know that MJ got on him a few weeks back and has been very pleased. His price is nearing the 500K mark, so I think it’s now or never for the great Zorko. As we all know, Rocky is an elite SC scorer – my concern is that he will struggle to reach his lofty standards of last year, as he has missed so much football. Lewis looked like a great POD at the start of the year when he produced scores of 154, 111 and 107. However, his last month has produced scores of 63, 57, 78 and 125. With a cheap price and a low b/e, now is the time to get Lewis into your team. But remember – be prepared for some low scores and don’t expect a great amount of consistency. Good luck with everything mate

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