The Fallen Premiums R15, 2015

Written by MJ on July 16 2015

There are some massive names to choose from this week, and some that may have you reconsidering the obvious.

Defenders:

Kade Simpson $470,500 (-$42,300; AVE 93.33, BE 89, PTA 94) It’s been nothing but positive progression for Simpson in his last month. Scores of 76, 88, 90 and now 100 after the bye now leaves him sporting a 100.1 average since returning from injury in R8. He’s always been good for a 95 average in the past, so at this price he should return good value.

Josh Gibson $441,900 (-$55,300; AVE 92.69, BE 78, PTA 88.2) He’s just pumped out a 131 against the Dockers. Put him on your watchlist and take a punt on him if you’re backing some more numbers like that!

Tom McDonald $437,100 (+$56,000; AVE 101.21, BE 52, PTA 87.4) A few shockers in recent weeks has sent Tommy’s price south at a rapid rate. The 141 on the weekend has put a serious halt on any further decreases and now is the time to buy one of only four defenders averaging 100+ this season.

Wait for:
Corey Enright $509k; BE 137
Rory Laird $520k; BE 131

Midfielders:

Gary Ablett $669,800 (-$64,800; AVE 120.75, BE 119, PTA 133.8) The old Gary that we have come to know so well is back, but this time with a rugged beard and a fiancé! Still the most expensive player in the game, but that’s not going to deter many.

Ollie Wines $523,700 (-$15,500; AVE 107.40, BE 68, PTA 104.6) This kid is going to be something very, very special in years to come. With an average of 107.40 that includes an injury affected game, he’s well under priced and coming off a 145.

Tom Rockliff $510,100 (-$199,400; AVE 83.13, BE 74, PTA 102.0) Some coaches may be looking at getting Rocky for the second or third time this year alone. Polled yesterday and most are backing him to be over his injuries. It’s hard not to take the risk again at such a tantalising price.

Steele Sidebottom $488,200 (-$120,000; AVE 101.63, BE 59, PTA 97.6) There’s no doubt Sidebottom will be flying under the radar amongst the Ablett and Rockliff hype this week. Coming off a 107 and 122 and averaging 113 last year to start 2015 at over $600k, he’s going at a factory run out price.

Jordan Lewis $458,300 (-$129,900; AVE 98.55, BE 53, PTA 91.6) Let’s be honest, he has been far less impressive than last year’s stellar season, but you can’t do much better for this amount of coin.

Wait for:
Nat Fyfe $633k; BE 206
Brad Ebert $502k; BE 159
Luke Parker $571k; BE 152
Lachie Neale $523k; BE 122

Rucks:

Matthew Kreuzer $416,600 (+$45,700; AVE 84.40, BE 54, PTA 83.2) His last three weeks have yielded 108, 92 and 100, which is similar to the scores we were becoming accustomed to pre-injury. In 2013 he averaged 97.8 and could make for a sneaky POD selection.

Wait for:
Aaron Sandilands $576k; BE 125
Nic Naitanui $603k; BE 117
Sam Jacobs $506k; BE 117
Stefan Martin $556k; BE 115

Forwards:

Robbie Gray $522,300 (-$74,600; AVE 112.00, BE 73, PTA 104.4) If you’ve been waiting for Robbie to bottom out, now is your time to snap him up. So far undervalued at the moment, it’s a no-brainer if you’re one of the few who are missing his points week in week out. Nine games of 110+ speak for themselves.

Luke Dahlhaus $476,400 (-$16,300; AVE 101.29, BE 108, PTA 95.2) He hasn’t been under $500k for a while (last week was the first time since R3). I’d still expect the Doghouse to carry on his 100 average for the remainder of the season, so he’s looking a good semi-unique selection in a little over 10% of sides as the 5th most points scored of any forward.

Marcus Bontempelli $443,700 (+$21,400; AVE 97.00, BE 39, PTA 88.6) 142 points against the Gold Coast was what we’d come to anticipate from the Bont earlier this year. A lean patch in the middle of the season has brought his value down to just about R1 levels. Priced nearly ten points below his actual average.

Wait for:
Jimmy Bartel $498k; BE 173
Brent Harvey $466k; BE 165
Lance Franklin $493k; BE 147
Dustin Martin $538k; BE 137
Brendon Goddard $453k; BE 132

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19 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums R15, 2015”

  1. Thanks MJ!

    Looking at trading out M. Wallis/D. Rich and bringing in either R. Gray/S. Sidebottom or R. Gray/T. McDonald (swing L. Hodge back into MIDS).

    Leaves me with 6 trades, $50k and depending on which combo 1 DEF/1 FWD or 1 MID/1 FWD to fill… but only have J. Steele generating cash!!

    T/U R. Gray/S. Sidebottom

    T/D R. Gray/T. McDonald

    Comment for another suggestion.

    TIA everyone.

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  2. I’m bringing in Ablett for Shiel and Thinking about either trading Lever, colquhon or hamling to McDonald in the backs. Or Boston to Sidebottom in the mids.

    T/U – Sidebottom
    T/D – McDonald

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  3. Bringing in Priddis and Rockliff for CEY and Cripps.
    Would love it to be Gaz and Rockliff but i’m $20k short!

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  4. Thinking of trading Kaveneagh or Hamling and Pittard with some money in the bank… Bring in Rocky, Higgins, MacMillan, McDonald or Simpson? Upper limit is about $510k for premo as I will bring a $124k rookie, like Riley Knight, in too, obviously. What do you, the SC community, reckon?

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  5. Really like the look of a number of these options MJ. Geex i wish i had more trades up my sleeve. How did we used to cope before they bumped our trades up to 30? What was it again? 22 or 24?

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  6. With limited funds and 5 trades left, is it worth ditching Selwood for Sideboob? I’m $1k short for Rocky.

    T/U Get Sideboob
    T/D Save the trade

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  7. Just need 1 more defender and another mid to replace Shiel to complete my team, with a tad over $1.1m to pick up the two players. Have narrowed it down to 2 combinations of players, but boy its hard to split them.

    T/U – Hodge and Armitage
    T/D – McDonald and Ablett

    Team currently is:
    Def: Shaw, Simpson, Docherty, Gibson, Roberton, ?? (Hamling, Pearce)
    Mid: Fyfe, Pendlebury, Dangerfield, JPK, Wines, Steven, Rockliff, ?? (Dumont, Steele, Kavanagh)

    Thanks

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  8. Hi Guys,

    OPTION – 1:
    OUT: J Selwood & A Saad
    IN: T Rockliff & L Hodge

    OPTION – 2:
    OUT: J Selwood & A Saad
    IN: Gazza & N Malceski

    Thumbs Up: OPTION – 1

    Thumbs Down: OPTION – 2

    Thanks,
    Raj

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