The Fallen Premiums R15, 2013: Bumper Midfield Edition

With Jobe Watson out for an extended period (listed as 6 weeks), chances are you’ll be searching for a new elite midfielder. In what is a Modified Edition of the Fallen Premiums this week, I have analysed a number of trade options for Watson below. These are the players I believe have the capability to average 110+ for the rest of the season at an affordable price for a Watson straight swap.

Ablett, Griffen, Pendles, Dangerfield, Barlow, Swan of course are all excellent options and are the cream of the crop in the midfield this year (as their price suggests). Most will not have the luxury of having $60k+ in the bank needed to grab them though, so is who I believe to represent the best dozen affordable options.

1) Joel Selwood ($528,700; -$100,800, Ave 108.5, BE 119) One of the in-form players in the competition. Duckwood has scored 151, 54, 135 and 137 in his last four games. As we’ve seen this season, even the best will be shut down by Ryan Crowley, so don’t worry about that 54 three weeks ago. Has an extremely inviting run of games to come, only playing one team in the top 7 (Sydney). Has played two seasons with a 117 average (’10 & ’12), of which no-one else on this list can claim. Only downside is his potential to be rested for one game later in the season, as Geelong have historically done this to their stars leading up to September. Finals run: Port(91), WC(-), Syd(163), Bris(135). *Scores against those opponents this season in brackets

2) Kieran Jack ($555,300; -$46,100, Ave 112.5, BE 129) Kieran Jack started the season at a tick over $600k and was overlooked by about 98% of the competition in our initial teams. Those who selected him from the get go would be patting themselves on the back, performing much better than the more popular Sydney midfielder, Josh Kennedy. Jack has scored 120+ on eight occasions this year, only going lower than 114 four times! You’ll get him in great form as well, with scores of 138, 72, 122, 126, 121 in his last five games. Facing GWS this week, he looms as a great prospect on debut for your side. Still in only 6.2% of teams. Finals run: Coll(96), StK(114), Geel(130), Haw(96).

3) Josh P. Kennedy ($507,500; -$135,500, Ave 109.6, BE 125) Has been somewhat disappointing since I traded him in just after his bye. Averaging 119 last season in what was a breakout year for the former Hawk, I had high hopes for JPK to finish the season strong. 107, 88 and 96 have been my returns so far, not what you want from your elite mids. Nevertheless, we all know what he is capable of as one of the best contested ball winners in the game (20 contested on the weekend). Expect a big one against GWS this week, as his last three against them have yielded 147, 123 and 137. Finals run: Coll(56), StK(109), Geel(80), Haw(143). Last 3 against the Hawks: 143, 126, 173.

4) David Mundy ($534,600; +$57,300, Ave 105.6, BE 68) One of the easiest finals draws, puts Freo players in high demand at the pointy end of the season. Mundy held a 118 average for the start of 2011 before succumbing to a serious leg injury in R12. Taking almost the whole of last year to really work back into form, Mundy has been a great find for those who took the punt in R1. Finished off last year strongly with an average of 115 in his last 6 games. Came back from a minor calf injury to pump out a 120 against the Saints last week, and look who Freo have in the SC Granny! You could only think Sandilands’ return could positively impact the Freo mids as well. Only 4.8% of coaches are running with him at the moment. Finals run: GWS(-), Melb(131), Port(-), StK(120).

5) Trent Cotchin ($495,500; -$126,600, Ave 108, BE 92) Warning signs for coaches is that the Richmond skipper hasn’t scored 110+ in his last six games. He is working himself back into form with a 107 and 104 in his last two though. Saves you a bit of cash for safe keeping and is way undervalued for a man of his potential, averaging 116.1 last season, coming home strong to finish 2^nd in the Brownlow. Has Gold Coast this week, followed by Freo, Sydney and Hawthorn, so immediate returns may be tough to come by, but that finals run is a plus. Finals run: Bris(-), Carl(119), GWS(-), Ess(104).

6) Brett Deledio ($512,500; -$111,600, Ave 106.5, BE 155) Had his best season to date in 2012, averaging 116.2 for the season. Usually an ultra consistent player, Lids has been a little bit up and down this season. Four scores under 90 will not entice potential buyers, however he does make up for it with some huge scores of 140, 163, 131 and 141. As with Trent Cotchin, his upcoming run of games dampens his appeal, but his high score ceiling still makes him attractive enough. Cotch and Lids separated only by price and form, as it’s a flip of the coin as to who’ll average higher from here. Finals run: Bris(-), Carl(116), GWS(-), Ess(73).

7) Ryan O’Keefe ($555,500; +$100, Ave 109, BE 71) Overlooked due to the age factor (32 years old) and that he’s lost his forward eligibility this season. However, ROK just keeps on keeping on, currently having his best season to date in terms of SC. He’s only gone below 90 once this year. Three massive scores of 152, 133 and 143 in his last six games tells you how good his form is. Never averaged 110+ for a whole season, but history tells us he plays the back half of the year better than the front half (Average from R16 onwards last season: 122).  POD factor (2.2% of teams) could influence many to get him this week, but I’d always pick Jack/JPK first, especially at this price. Finals run: Coll(143), StK(104), Geel(92), Haw(91).

8) Nat Fyfe ($497,900; -$900, Ave 104.4, BE 153) Has posted three dismal scores of 82, 68 and 77 in the last month, despite playing pretty good footy. Another who is ripping value for less than $500k, and who I can see averaging upwards of 110 if he reduces his clanger count. Shoulder has been fine this season, but is always a perennial concern and and risk for those burnt by him before. With limited trades in the bank my preference would be Mundy at this stage. That magical finals run justifies his selection ahead of others though. Finals run: GWS(-), Melb(128), Port(-), StK(82).

9) Sam Mitchell ($503,400; -$89,200, Ave 108.1, BE 63) In great form coming off 125 and 118 in his last two games. Has always been a solid SuperCoach scorer without being absolute elite, with a best season averaging 113.4 in 2011 followed by 110.7 last year. Having midfielders from winning team is usually a good strategy to abide by. Another on the wrong side of the aging curve, turning 31 in October. Not for me, especially with the Swans in the SC GF (Hasn’t hit the ton against them in his last four games). Finals run: StK(-), Coll(91), Nth(137), Syd(94).

10) Andrew Swallow ($498,800; -$86,300, Ave 105.1, BE 134) With averages of 111.9 and 109 in his last two seasons, Swallow has room to improve in the back half of the season. Very cheap at this price though and as durable as they come, not missing a game since 2008. Would be a left field choice, and has posted impressive scores against the opponents he matches up with in SC finals. Finals run: Adel(124), Ess(-), Haw(125), Coll (137).

11) Matt Priddis ($521,400; -$66,900, Ave 100.1, BE 86) Priddis has reward those of us who bought him for rock-bottom dollar after his concussion in R5. Remove the concussion game and his true average is actually 107. A 114 average in 2011 and 110 in 2012 gives you confidence that you can rely on. Lowest score for the year: 86 in R1. Downside is that tough draw the Eagles face: Freo, Syd, Ess, Geel, Coll amongst their final eight games. Otherwise he’d be positioned MUCH higher on this list. Finals run: Ess(103), Geel(-), Coll(-), Adel(129).

12) Marc Murphy ($425,300; -$177,600, Ave 92, BE 185) Lastly, here’s your smokie option. Would be more enticing if he’d shown a bit more on the weekend. Averaged 111+ in his last four seasons, but is well down on that this year, even when you drop out his injury affected game of 22 points. Will drop to under $400k next week, which would free up a huge amount of cash for an upgrade elsewhere. It’s a bold option, but if you can field Tom Mitchell for another week (against GWS) and trade in Murphy next week assuming he plays decently against the Saints this week, it could be a sneaky play. Finals run: WB(-), Rich(104), Ess(118), Port(130).

Took me a while to rank these from 1-12, with some very fine margins between them. Do you think I’ve got it right? How would you rank them given what you think they’ll average from here til the end of the season, also giving weight to their SC finals fixtures? Did I miss anyone who you think could finish off the year with a 110+ average?

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