The Fallen Premiums – R16

Written by Chillo on July 12 2017

Last week’s Fallen Premiums were a bit of a mixed bag. Parker, Buddy and Silk all raised the bat, but Gawn and Rance were outplayed by their respective opponents, and Cripps sadly went down with a broken leg. Hopefully this week is better, as we look to complete our teams in the run to the finals.

Here are the Fallen Premiums from Round 16.

Defence

Kade Simpson $498,000 (-$80.7K) AVE 95, BE 93 โ€“ In the twilight of a wonderful career but still getting it done. The Blues veteran may not be quite as consistent as he once was, but he has put up a couple of 140+ games this year and overall his numbers remain very solid. A top six defender with less than 8% ownership, Simpson is a POD worthy of consideration.

Simmo, the long sleeved version. You’re welcome Motts

Rory Laird $477,500 (-$49.3K) AVE 103, BE 93 – A couple of quiet weeks for the Crows rebounder has seen his price drop almost $90K from its season high. 119 against the Dogs was a good reminder of what he’s capable of, and he remains the second highest scoring defender of the year behind the prolific Docherty. A must-have.

Coming down:
Z Williams $491K; BE 181
D Robertonย $457K; BE 133
T Adams $464K; BE 132

Midfield

Callan Ward $547,300 (-$27.2K) AVE 97, BE 58 – Admittedly one of my favourite players, Ward has seemingly overcome an uncharacteristically slow start to 2017. After only tonning up three times in the first nine rounds, Ward has five scores of 100+ in his last six games, including a season-high 136 last start against the Hawks. Get on the Giants skipper for the Battle of the Bridge this weekend!

Nat Fyfe $483,600 (-$89.9K), AVE 101, BE 65 – It’s been a pretty rough year for the 2015 Brownlow medallist so far, but despite that he is still averaging 101, and is currently super-cheap for someone of his scoring potential. He was back to his dominating best with a BOG performance against the Roos last week. Maybe Freo and Fyfe have one last charge for the finals left in them?

Coming down:
J Selwood $483K; BE 165 *blue light special next week*
D Martin $597K; BE 160
Z Merrett $594K; BE 153
A Treloar $523K; BE 148

Ruck

Todd Goldstein $537,700 (-$50.7K) AVE 100, BE 91 โ€“ Unfortunately, certain sections of the media seem to be on Goldy’s case at the moment. Certainly his form doesn’t stack up to previous years, but he remains elite in his position, and was one straight kick away from a massive score last weekend. Definitely a POD at this stage of the season, but Goldy is too good to count out just yet.

Coming down:
M Kreuzer $608K; BE 169
S Martin $490K; BE 140

Forward

Tom J. Lynch $391,800 (-$115.4K) AVE 86, BE 25 – The Suns spearhead gave us a brief glimpse of what he’s capable of in the the first quarter against the Swans, with three goals and 39 points by the first break. Rampe kept him quiet after that, but Lynch has a huge ceiling and at this price, could be a tempting F6/F7 option to finish off your forward line.

Coming down:
J Billings $509K; BE 158
M Wallis $435K; BE 128
J Cameron $458K; BE 127

Hands up if you’re an undervalued gun?
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15 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – R16”

  1. Great write up Chillo, If Greenwood doesn’t get selected this week is it worth spending the 50 k and upgrading him to Lynch ?

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    1. Possibly, but I think Greenwood will almost certainly play this week. He was listed as ‘rested’ and didn’t play SANFL last week. I love Scotty Thompson but he looked very, very slow against the Dogs.
      Lynch is definitely worth a look though. Hall and Hanley may be back this week, and GAJ can’t be too far away either. Better midfield, better delivery for the forward line.

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  2. Taylor Adams is not in my team. He has been on my radar all year but his scores this last month have been modest. Is it worth bringing him in for Newman, or stick with the young swan?

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    1. Newman’s outscored Adams over the last month, I see no reason to make the trade until Adams finds his feet again……..

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      1. I can understand ‘upgrading’ Newman if you’ve for the trades to do it but Adams is a sideways trade.

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  3. Well, Chillo……it was a brief but memorable stint with the Fallen Premiums. You managed it superbly! Thanks again for filling in!

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  4. While Goldy definitely isn’t the Goldy of old he’s still pumping out some decent scores. He was beaten in the ruck by a newbie and didn’t seem to have much influence on the game on Sunday but he still managed to score a ton. I’ve been spruiking him for a month or so now, but keep him in your calculations if your ruck goes down with an injury in the next month.

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    1. Yep…..ideally I’d love to have Kreuzer & Goldy in the run home but circumstances have prevented that……

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    2. I picked him up round 13 and has averaged 112 since then. Given the way the rucks have fluctuated this season (except Krooozer), a solid 90-110 week in week out with the odd biggie is invaluable. Currently running with a golden witts combo, and see no reason to change unless Gawn hits his straps or I can get Krooozer at a discounted price.

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  5. I may have some bias as a disgruntled Lynch owner, but there’s a valid reason he’s now priced below $400K. Yes, six 100+ scores (and two 120+) but also 4 sub-50 scores. CAVEAT EMPTOR!

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      1. Yeah, it’s a risk. Let me put this to you though – last year, Lynch was priced at $376K after round 14. He finished the year at just under $500K.

        I’m not saying that will happen again this year, but it has happened before. The Suns have a decent run home too.

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  6. Ok I’ve reversed my double upgrade and thought this might work better with just the one trade. SPP out Greenwood into the mid for
    TU T.Lynch (good f7 with big ceiling)
    TD T.Walker( slightly more consistent)

    They’re both very similar Tex seems to be hitting his straps.

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