The Fallen Premiums – R2

Written by MJ on April 6 2016

With prices yet to change, today I’ve decided to fine tune our focus to those players who started the year at over $550k and are going to shed significant amounts off their price tags after Round 3. For one reason or another, these guys have started 2016 averaging under 100 points per game across their first two fixtures. Remember, these are our stars of last season, the best scoring players in 2015, and most have no reason to suggest they’ll continue scoring at such subdued levels.

Smart SuperCoaches don’t chase last week’s points, they chase tomorrow’s points, at cheaper than last week’s price.

No doubt you have a few of the following list. Now is not necessarily time to panic and rage trade them out. If you thought they were good enough to have in your team for 2016 two weeks ago, you need a significant reason to say something has fundamentally changed about this player that will mean they don’t average at least 100 points per game from this point forward (eg. seemingly permanent positional change). We don’t have enough trades for the year to be switching between premiums based on their last couple of performances. Having said that, I know many will be forced to sacrifice one of these guns to get a ‘must-have’, which is reasonable under some circumstances. Rest assured though, the vast majority of these guys will bounce back sooner rather than later and will be on Schwarzwalder’s Flavour of the Week list shortly.

Scott Pendlebury $627k MID (89, 110)

David Mundy $612k MID (82, 78)

Heath Shaw $607k DEF (87, 74)

Leigh Montagna $599k FWD/MID (83, 100)

Josh P. Kennedy $594k MID (75, 95)

David Armitage $591k MID (100, 87)

Sam Jacobs $582k RUC (64, 74)

Shane Mumford $570k RUC (65, 105)

Rory Sloane $569k MID (96, 81)

Joel Selwood $565k MID (105, 70)

Luke Dahlhaus $563k FWD/MID (98, 87)

Jack Steven $562k MID (101, 81)

Matthew Boyd $560k DEF (96, 74)

Andrew Gaff $560k MID (106, 84)

Marcus Bontempelli $557k MID (110, 79)

Max Gawn $550k RUC (95, 85)

Would love to know who you are eyeing off most closely to purchase at a reduced price once Round 3 rolls along!

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29 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – R2”

  1. Great to see Fallen Premiums back for another year.

    There’s a few decent rucks that will drop a few $ over the next few rounds, if Zac Smith can hold his price I might snaffle one them up.

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  2. I know there will be a more comprehensive recap of break evens later, but here’s just a few to consider (round 3 BE, projected round 4 BE, projected round 5 BE):
    Shaw 194, 166, 127
    Goldstein 185, 158, 128
    JPK 177, 131, 121
    Fyfe 174, 95(!), 146
    Pendlebury 167, 128, 128
    Dangerfield 139, 174(!), 128

    Clearly if you haven’t got Fyfe, the time to get him is after this weekend. He won’t be that much cheaper than he is now, but he’ll be even more expensive the week after when the 61 drops out of his price cycle. The alternate applies for Danger (and probably Priddis and NicNat too), who all smashed out big scores in round 1 and then bombed in round 2.

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  3. Thanks MJ for this. Your point of “seemingly permanent positional changes” . . . do we think this applies to Pendlebury at the moment or is he being hidden off half back because of injury? Any thoughts greatly received.

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  4. Great to see these back for another year!

    Barlow out for me this week…gotta go…

    Who am i bringing in??

    Buddy T/UP
    Stringer T/DOWN

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  5. Keen as on Dahl too. Watching with a keen eye he is doing all of the little things that help him generate points (doing a mountain of work at the coal face, leading the AFL in tackles – 13 on the weekend!, etc) without hitting the scoreboard or generating the possession numbers that form would indicate he’s going to get eventually.

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  6. T/U Rockliff to hall & Barlow to Papley, leaves 530K in the bank to get done fallen premos in the next few weeks

    T/D Rockliff to Ablett & Barlow to hall, leaves only 16K and miss the boat on Papley

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  7. Will bite my tongue and keep Rocky, but Barlow looks to be in a different level this year and not in a good way…. Papley and JayJoh are my choices to bring in for Barlow and Rich, giving me $449k for upgrades over the coming weeks. Is this smart? It would be my first two trades this year, and Libba plus any on the bubble reliable rookie for an LTI/Gresham/high BE rookie is next week, tentatively.

    T/U – sounds like a decent plan
    T/D – got my priorities wrong

    appreciate any thoughts… tough start this year, especially with the tongue being bitten so much over the guns. nice set of rookies, though. it’ll be all about WHEN to let them go and for who, as we all seem to have the same sub $220k players!

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  8. I would love to get Fyfe in as early as next week after his price drop. To do so i need to downgrade downgrade Barlow this week and upgrade Rocky next.

    Whats the community’s thoughts on Scully? Ripping start to the season. Only 450k. I know he is an elite runner so I can only imagine that the new sub-rule will work to his advantage. Played a 100games now, 26, huge POD. No ones seems to be talking about him. Zakka seems to get getting all the attention in the 400k mid market.

    Could this be his break out? Thoughts?

    Cheers.

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  9. Paying the price for sub-class premiums. Rich and Barlow out (set to bleed $60k – $85k between them this w/e). I have all the usual suspects as rookies with the exception of Hewitt and Davis. Other Fwds, Mids and Backs OK all things considered (thankfully I don’t have Rocky).

    TU: JJ and Zorko in
    TD: Another brilliant plan required

    All thoughts, criticism, spears and harpoons welcome.

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