The Fallen Premiums – R4

Written by MJ on April 20 2017


Heath Shaw $499K (-$77K) AVE 84.8, BE 126 – The former Pie has not started the year as his owners would have liked. At a lofty price of $576K, coaches were not deterred in purchasing one of the most reliable SC defenders in the last decade. In just two rounds of price fluctuations his dollar value has already plummeted below $500K, which presents real value if he can return to his usual 100+ average (105 and 112 in previous two seasons).

Kade Simpson $489K (-$88.9K) AVE 80.3, BE 131 – Is age catching up to the Carlton veteran? The last time Simpson averaged less than 90 points in a season was way back in 2008. He’s also only missed five games over that same time period. A 33 disposal game in R1 gives me confidence he’ll continue to pump out big scores on occasions this year.

Coming down:
Matthew Boyd, BE 134


Ablett and Kennedy have both lost a bit of value since the start of R1, but have been finding plenty of the footy in recent weeks.

Gary Ablett $564K (-$56.2K) AVE 99.5, BE 122 – Responding to the critics with a 70 touches and 3 goals in the last fortnight is true GAJ style. Unfortunately it hasn’t translated into massive SC scores, with just 112 and 99, but you’ve got to think it’s on the way. Ablett’s lost over $50K off his starting price if you’d like to take a gamble on the little master now. We all know his capability.

Josh P. Kennedy $583K (-$33.2K) AVE 110.8, BE 125 – I’m going to focus on the better performing of the Sydney midfielders today, with Parker and Hannebery also losing a stack of dough in the last two weeks. JPK did score an uncharacteristic 89 points in R2, when he was held to just 24 disposals v. the Bulldogs (his first time below 90 since R1 last year!). In the meantime, he’s scored 107 and 113 in R3 and R4 to average above 110 thus far and now the 89 drops from his 3 round rolling price calculations.

Coming down:
Patrick Dangerfield BE 183
Robbie Gray BE 172
Scott Pendlebury BE 156
Adam Treloar BE 153
Dustin Martin BE 151


The only Fallen Premium ruck of note is Todd Goldstein ($547K), but with a breakeven of 176, definitely hold off and grab him when he’s a bit cheaper if you can!


Tom J. Lynch $488K (-$18.6K) AVE 99.8, BE 33 – Big Tommy was monstrous against the Blues, kicking an impressive haul of 7.0, leading the Suns to their second successive win and 161 SC points. This is the last we’ll be seeing Lynch below $500K for a little while, so if you were impressed by his performance and want a bit of Tommy Lynch in your side, I suggest you act now. Despite the huge score on the weekend, he’s valued at less than what he was at the start of the year.

Coming down:
Jack Gunston BE 145
Lance Franklin BE 140
JJK BE 127


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