Two weeks of price cuts sees some premiums that have had slow starts to the year bottoming out already now that R1 and R2 low scores are leaving their three-week price cycle. Keep in mind, the players I’m listing are cheaper than their R1 tag, due to a slower than average start to the year. They’re performing below their expected output at the moment, but past seasons suggest they may be on the improve again soon. Of course, you’re more likely to grab some in-form jack-in-the-box at the moment, but these guys are listed to broaden your thinking a little. As the weeks roll on, The Fallen Premiums will become increasingly relevant to your trading strategy. Without further ado, let’s get stuck in to the first meaningful look at some ‘Fallen Premiums’ in 2015.
Corey Enright $461,800 (-$16,600; AVE 90.75; BE 69) Boris has been one of the most consistent defenders SuperCoach has ever seen. It’s a shame for everyone involved in the game that this is the last season he will be available for selection in our sides, after announcing he’ll be hanging up the well-worn boots at the end of 2015. The 65 he dropped in R2 has been an anomaly this year, with a 94, 95 and most recently a 109 making up his other scores to start the season.
Michael Hibberd $459,700 (-$31,800; AVE 81.75; 89) His R1 effort of 59 was a surprising start to the year considering his history of being a super consistent scorer, dropping below 80 just seven times over the course of 2013-14. He’s backed it up with a couple of 84s and a 100 on the weekend and comes over $30k cheaper than he was a month ago.
Fallen defensive stocks still on the decline:
Kade Simpson $474k (-$37k); BE 132
Shaun Burgoyne $468k (-$38k); BE 126
Matthew Jaensch $453k (-$28k); BE 111
Paul Duffield $452k (-$22k); BE 130
Nick Malceski $440k (-$125k); BE 148
Marc Murphy $540,300 (-$29,700; AVE 97.25, BE 89) SuperCoaches that have been around for 5+ years will remember Marc Murphy as one of the first picked each season in our midfields. At 27 years of age he should be smashing out his career best footy, but it’s been a tough road for him, struggling SC-wise in 2013 with an average of 92.3, but picking it up slightly in 2014 with a 106 average. A 64 in R1 has cut his price by nearly $30k. Those with Navy Blue jumpers in their wardrobes may look to bring him in, but I can’t imaging too many others jumping at the chance until he proves more.
Travis Boak $534,300 (-$33,900; AVE 100.75, BE 65) Boak’s performance of 147 points on the weekend would have had his 8,700 owners breathing a sigh of relief after posting scores of just 82, 68 and 106 across the first three rounds. Expect him to be inconsistent, as he can be subject to the taggers, but also has the potential to go very large on occasion, going 150+ five times in 2014 if you include the Elimination Final against the Tiges. Yet to break out of the 105 average mould that he’s held for the last two seasons. He could be the man once Port get rolling.
Nathan Jones $504,800 (-$76,400; AVE 87.00, BE 92) Always been a highly underrated player in my eyes, especially after owning him for the second half of last year myself. He was a wonderfully consistent performer last season, going under 89 just twice all year. A miserable 41 in R2 has sent his price crashing down. 99, 101 and 107 make up his other scores, which are respectable, but you’d want to see a bit more from him.
Mids still coming down in value:
Scott Pendlebury $632k (-$36k) BE 149
Joel Selwood $615k (-$34k) BE 128
Josh P. Kennedy $573k (-$39k) BE 160
Dayne Beams $571k (-$49k) BE 119
Adam Treloar $560k (-$17k) BE 142
Matt Priddis $547k (-$58k) BE 137
Patrick Dangerfield $534k (-$33k) BE 140
Michael Barlow $530k (-$70k) BE 195
Bryce Gibbs $522k (-$48k) BE 137
Luke Parker $505k (-$77k) BE 139
Stefan Martin $558,400 (-$41,800; AVE 100, BE 95) A 140 against West Coast reminded us just how good Stefan was last year. Scores of 98 and 95 after his first round slump of 67 say he’s a decent option for your ruck stocks. Despite being still relatively pricey, he’s been slashed by over $40k.
Ivan Maric $508,100 (-$27,800; AVE 95.50, BE 90) A slow start saw 82, 90 and 86 over the first three weeks before satisfying his owners with a 124 on a wet night against the Demons. Could this be a sign of things to come for the flying Mullet? I hope so.
Patrick Ryder $503,200 (-$40,200; AVE 90.25, BE 95) You’re probably not jumping up and down about looking at blokes with averages around 90, but he’s $40k down and his scores are trending upwards: 77, 82, 93, 109. Keep an eye on him.
Rucks still coming back down to earth:
Sam Jacobs $569k (-$50k) BE 159
Shane Mumford $538k (-$75k) BE 160
Aaron Sandilands $508k (-$72k) BE 161
Brent Harvey $517,500 (-$61,400; AVE 84.75, BE 112) A 54 in R1 has brought Boomer’s price down to a reasonable level after not many considered him at all during pre-season. 91, 90 and 104 since then and might be enough for you to at least watch him closer in the coming weeks.
Dayne Zorko $498,300 (-$33,600; AVE 92.50, BE 91) The Magician has been scoring reasonably well considering Brisbane’s dismal start to 2015. 105, 62, 115 and 88 are decent numbers. He’s playing the out of sorts Gold Coast this week, smashing them out of the grandstand last time with a 159 with 32 touches and 2.4 on the scoreboard.
Forwards still on the way down:
Robbie Gray $577k (-$19k) BE 157
Brendan Goddard $499k (-$48k) BE 114
Harley Bennell $485k (-$29k) BE 119
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