The Fallen Premiums R4, 2015

Written by MJ on April 30 2015

Two weeks of price cuts sees some premiums that have had slow starts to the year bottoming out already now that R1 and R2 low scores are leaving their three-week price cycle. Keep in mind, the players I’m listing are cheaper than their R1 tag, due to a slower than average start to the year. They’re performing below their expected output at the moment, but past seasons suggest they may be on the improve again soon. Of course, you’re more likely to grab some in-form jack-in-the-box at the moment, but these guys are listed to broaden your thinking a little. As the weeks roll on, The Fallen Premiums will become increasingly relevant to your trading strategy. Without further ado, let’s get stuck in to the first meaningful look at some ‘Fallen Premiums’ in 2015.

Defenders:

Corey Enright $461,800 (-$16,600; AVE 90.75; BE 69) Boris has been one of the most consistent defenders SuperCoach has ever seen. It’s a shame for everyone involved in the game that this is the last season he will be available for selection in our sides, after announcing he’ll be hanging up the well-worn boots at the end of 2015. The 65 he dropped in R2 has been an anomaly this year, with a 94, 95 and most recently a 109 making up his other scores to start the season.

Michael Hibberd $459,700 (-$31,800; AVE 81.75; 89) His R1 effort of 59 was a surprising start to the year considering his history of being a super consistent scorer, dropping below 80 just seven times over the course of 2013-14. He’s backed it up with a couple of 84s and a 100 on the weekend and comes over $30k cheaper than he was a month ago.

Fallen defensive stocks still on the decline:

Kade Simpson $474k (-$37k); BE 132
Shaun Burgoyne $468k (-$38k); BE 126
Matthew Jaensch $453k (-$28k); BE 111
Paul Duffield $452k (-$22k); BE 130
Nick Malceski $440k (-$125k); BE 148

 

Midfielders:

Marc Murphy $540,300 (-$29,700; AVE 97.25, BE 89) SuperCoaches that have been around for 5+ years will remember Marc Murphy as one of the first picked each season in our midfields. At 27 years of age he should be smashing out his career best footy, but it’s been a tough road for him, struggling SC-wise in 2013 with an average of 92.3, but picking it up slightly in 2014 with a 106 average. A 64 in R1 has cut his price by nearly $30k. Those with Navy Blue jumpers in their wardrobes may look to bring him in, but I can’t imaging too many others jumping at the chance until he proves more.

Travis Boak $534,300 (-$33,900; AVE 100.75, BE 65) Boak’s performance of 147 points on the weekend would have had his 8,700 owners breathing a sigh of relief after posting scores of just 82, 68 and 106 across the first three rounds. Expect him to be inconsistent, as he can be subject to the taggers, but also has the potential to go very large on occasion, going 150+ five times in 2014 if you include the Elimination Final against the Tiges. Yet to break out of the 105 average mould that he’s held for the last two seasons. He could be the man once Port get rolling.

Nathan Jones $504,800 (-$76,400; AVE 87.00, BE 92) Always been a highly underrated player in my eyes, especially after owning him for the second half of last year myself. He was a wonderfully consistent performer last season, going under 89 just twice all year. A miserable 41 in R2 has sent his price crashing down. 99, 101 and 107 make up his other scores, which are respectable, but you’d want to see a bit more from him.

Mids still coming down in value:
Scott Pendlebury $632k (-$36k) BE 149
Joel Selwood $615k (-$34k) BE 128
Josh P. Kennedy $573k (-$39k) BE 160
Dayne Beams $571k (-$49k) BE 119
Adam Treloar $560k (-$17k) BE 142
Matt Priddis $547k (-$58k) BE 137
Patrick Dangerfield $534k (-$33k) BE 140
Michael Barlow $530k (-$70k) BE 195
Bryce Gibbs $522k (-$48k) BE 137
Luke Parker $505k (-$77k) BE 139

 

Rucks:

Stefan Martin $558,400 (-$41,800; AVE 100, BE 95) A 140 against West Coast reminded us just how good Stefan was last year. Scores of 98 and 95 after his first round slump of 67 say he’s a decent option for your ruck stocks. Despite being still relatively pricey, he’s been slashed by over $40k.

Ivan Maric $508,100 (-$27,800; AVE 95.50, BE 90) A slow start saw 82, 90 and 86 over the first three weeks before satisfying his owners with a 124 on a wet night against the Demons. Could this be a sign of things to come for the flying Mullet? I hope so.

Patrick Ryder $503,200 (-$40,200; AVE 90.25, BE 95) You’re probably not jumping up and down about looking at blokes with averages around 90, but he’s $40k down and his scores are trending upwards: 77, 82, 93, 109. Keep an eye on him.

Rucks still coming back down to earth:
Sam Jacobs $569k (-$50k) BE 159
Shane Mumford $538k (-$75k) BE 160
Aaron Sandilands $508k (-$72k) BE 161

 

Forwards:


Brent Harvey $517,500 (-$61,400; AVE 84.75, BE 112)
A 54 in R1 has brought Boomer’s price down to a reasonable level after not many considered him at all during pre-season. 91, 90 and 104 since then and might be enough for you to at least watch him closer in the coming weeks.


Dayne Zorko $498,300 (-$33,600; AVE 92.50, BE 91)
The Magician has been scoring reasonably well considering Brisbane’s dismal start to 2015. 105, 62, 115 and 88 are decent numbers. He’s playing the out of sorts Gold Coast this week, smashing them out of the grandstand last time with a 159 with 32 touches and 2.4 on the scoreboard.

Forwards still on the way down:
Robbie Gray $577k (-$19k) BE 157
Brendan Goddard $499k (-$48k) BE 114
Harley Bennell $485k (-$29k) BE 119

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47 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums R4, 2015”

  1. Are there any indicators that point to Leuey being out long-term? Because if he is, Stef becomes a must-buy for my squad. Along with Goldy, and Ryder in the Fwd line with DPP Read sitting manfully on the Ruck bench, they make for a very formidable set-and-forget package.

    Thoughts? And intel on Leuey’s future?

    Thanks fellas!

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  2. I’ve been waiting for Jacobs to bottom out, but Martin does seem tempting. He was super consistent last year once in the team

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  3. JPK & Rocky will certainly be following over next couple of weeks – cheers for above MJ. I’m looking forward to a month’s time when GAJ after 2 more weeks of rest & rehab + 2 weeks of playing (hopefully with limited game time or sub) will be up on MJ’s FP’s @ high 500K’s – could be a great POD.

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  4. Badger/Motts

    Can we please have the rookie review in the same structure as this article, in particular with the break evens.

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  5. All my rookies have cash to make.
    Considering TBC > krak or tarrant
    Then Salem > Ryder in a week or two
    Thoughts?

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  6. Two guys not listed here are my upgrade targets in a couple of weeks:
    Rory Sloane BE 169
    Brodie Smith BE 153
    The Crows have a pretty friendly draw over the next 6 weeks, hoping I can get these two for just over a mill and then ride that wave.

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  7. Im hoping everybody’s ignoring Michael Barlow. Gonna drop below 500k which is insanely cheap for a player of his quality and sc potential. Reckon hell make a very good POD!

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  8. All of the above are awesome options… is a shame they are mostly Mids and we can only have 8!!

    On a side note, who would I be best to cull this week…. Tex Walker, Dan Rich or Newnes?

    I have Goodes in the backline and IMO he is a better trade option than Newnes in the case that Newnes comes good (were all hoping!)…..

    Thinking of going Tex/Rich –> Tarrant, then Goodes –> McDonald/Hooker.

    Are these bad sideways trades, or a decent move to secure Tarrant and add another premium to my terrible backline?
    THUMBS UP or DOWN would be great.

    Cheers

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  9. Im losing sleep over Newnes !

    Currently have him out for Pittard who’s got an achievable 60ish breakeven, and feel he is a solid choice going forward.

    But I have less than 5k left…Backline of Simpson, Smith, Saad, Gibson, Oxley (McIntosh, Goddard)

    T/U: Stick to the Pitt
    T/D: Jump on Whitecross/Kelly and take the $$$ to the bank.

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  10. Nobody taking a Serious look at Michael Barlow? Averaged 112 last year and will drop under 500k in the next couple of weeks. Great POD that i will be looking at!

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  11. POD
    what do we think of Scott Thompson from Adelaide?
    low breakeven
    will benefit from the attention going to Rory solane and patrick dangerifeld
    1% ownership
    coming off the back of 138 and 132
    he averages 110+ in previous years

    appears to be floating under the radar a bit what our thoughts?

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  12. Went Bartel to Boomer last week and I hope it will pay off. Paid a little overs for him but wasn’t in a situation where I could wait the extra 2 weeks. I think he could be a top 6 or at least top 8 FWD by years end.

    With only 2 premos to include in my mids, I’m targeting Gaz and Rocky. Will have 200k in the kitty after this week so looking on track to be able to swoop on them when the time comes.

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