The Fallen Premiums – R6

Written by MJ on May 3 2017

Defenders

Kade Simpson $492K (-$85.8K) AVE 93.3, BE 52 – 148 points was the answer to multiple inclusions to the Fallen Premiums category this year. Together with Docherty, Simmo tore the Swans a new one in defence. The significance of this performance is huge, as although it was against the bottom side in the comp, it demonstrates Simpson can still produce what we’re used to seeing.

Is Simpson back to his usual ways with a 148 last week?

Heath Shaw $483K (-$92.6K) AVE 90.3, BE 85 – Again, Heater has been occupying this space for a number of weeks, and finally he delivers with a tidy 111 last Friday night. His shin-knock affected 79 will fall from the 3 round average this week, so we won’t see him at this price for long unless another one comes around. History shows it’s rare for Mr. Shaw to fall below 80 points in recent years, occurring just five time across 2015 & 2016.

Alex Rance $469K (-$66.2K) AVE 86.8, BE 92 – Averaging 97 and 98 in the last two seasons, Rance has elevated his game to another level, being one of the exceptions to the usual rule of no key defenders. Two sub-60 games this season has sent his price south to value territory. It’s always going to be the case that Rance suffers the odd poor game, so smart coaches will capitalise on this and grab him at the right time. 106 last week signals price inclines are to come.

Coming down:
Boyd $447K; BE 130
Adams $546K; BE 126

Midfielders

Robbie Gray $548K (-$39.7K) AVE 102.2, BE 74 – Gray backed up his huge 139 v Carlton with 111 against the Lions. Averages over the last three seasons read 111, 110 and 108, so he’s started the season a little under par. The round 8 bye will put quite a few off at this stage.

Dan Hannebery $537K (-$79.6K) AVE 90.8, BE 103 – Hanners has pulled together two tons in a row for the first time in 2017, and his last four games hold an average of 105.5. Great value here if he can get back to 110+, but you’ve got to believe the Swans will get their mojo back.

Coming down:
Rockliff $616K; BE 209
Dangerfield $616K; BE 181
Murphy $545K; BE 167
Mundy $543K; BE 162
Merrett $551K; BE 155
Zorko $571K; BE 150
Shuey $575K; BE 149
JPK $551K; BE 147
Wines $548K; BE 146
Fyfe $559K; BE 145

Rucks

Nothing to see here!

Coming down:
Martin $557K; BE 155
Grundy $513K; BE 149
Goldstein $492K; BE 127

Forwards

Josh J. Kennedy $508K (-$23.9K); AVE 108.2, BE 83 – Kennedy actually rose in price this week on the back of a very strong derby performance (141), as we had anticipated in last week’s write up. Still under his starting 2017 price and the third best forward on total points. If he maintains an average of 108 for the season, his price will be pushed up higher towards the $540K mark.

Nick Riewoldt $549K (+0.3K); AVE 111.0, BE 135 – He’s returned back to his starting price now after a huge 161 in R3. Still has a relatively high breakeven, so you could hold off another week. There’s not that much else up forward with a lot of value at the moment (unless you want to chance your arm at Higgins, who is unders at $444K IF he continues his 100 average and runs out the season).

Coming down:
Lynch $541K; BE 131
Walker $518K; BE 129

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30 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – R6”

  1. Cheers MJ.
    If you and father dougal could get together and some how organise the cows to ripen when the premiums have fallen that would be much appreciated. I hate to miss a bargain.

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  2. I think the little master has been told perform this year and we’ll let you go back.At a BE of 43 and under 600k I’m thinking he won’t get any cheaper than this.Ideally wanted to get him after the bye but thinking he’ll turn it on for the Chinese with another double ton! Currently priced at 108ave, will get that with plenty of change in the pocket.

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    1. Gave Ablett a few runs in the FPs already and rose $30k+ last week. You’ve either got to get him now or well after the bye because that 210 will send him ridiculously high in price for at least the next month.

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  3. Held off bringing in Simpson last week, opting to give the DEF cows another week to ripen. This might be the last time he’s under $500k for a while. As long as there are no surprises at selection, I look forward to welcoming Homer into Team Schwarz (and don’t I need it!)…….

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    1. Which cow are you trading out? I’m keen as well but would have to trade one of Hampton/Otten/Marchbank/Newman and might need to wait until next week due to Nank and Parfitt issue forward.

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      1. Probably Marchbank at this stage. They all have some cash still to make but I don’t see Marchbank going too far past $360k before the Bye Rounds. Simpson is about to shoot over $500k and could well stay there for some time. Could still change after selections but he looks the one right now……

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  4. Pendles should probably have got a mention this week shouldn’t he? He’s fallen by his standards at least!

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    1. Did consider writing him up. Great value at $577k for one of the best players in the game. Can afford to give him another week with a 126 BE if you like. Another big game and he’s sure to be featured next week in this space.

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    2. Beams to Pendles could be a very popular trade.

      Two weeks at least out on Beams. Remember 2016 and how long he was out after only expecting a short sideline stint.

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  5. Buddy Franklin? Only $444 and serious value at that price.

    Still has a BE of 109 but is up against the Lions at home this week.

    He’s a bit of a yo-yo scorer and the swans have been ordinary but I expect them to turn it around starting this week.

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    1. Gave him a go last week and was disappointed with his 70 v the Blues. Underwhelming against a team with a young defence.

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  6. Been thinking the last few days I’d bring in Macrae for Parfitt but perhaps seeking value is the way to go this year with the limited cash generation…

    TU – Macrae (consistent, $30K more than start price)
    TD – JJK (large ceiling, $30K less than start price)

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  7. No Fallen Premium for me. Adams comes in this week – I waited to long to bring Z.Merrett in last year and I’m having massive FOMO at the moment.

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  8. I wanna snag one of the potential top 6 defenders via upgrading Marchbank next week or week after, my premos include Z.Williams, Laird, Doch..

    T/U: Pick up a cheap Shaw or Simpson in hope they surge
    T/D: Spend the money and grab a solid, T.Adams

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  9. Alright, I’m bringing in Simpson, Hibberd and a heap of rookies (Black, EVW, Parsons and McNeice)

    Just have to figure out how to do 6 trades!

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    1. Let me know when you do…

      I’m sort of hoping Parsons wont get recalled straight away, but looks like he will…

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      1. El Greco’s right. Dusty will be sure to get a mention when his price bottoms out and he regains a run of form.
        Pendles still has that low score in his three week cycle for another round, so you’ll see him here next week.

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