The Fallen Premiums R6, 2013

Written by MJ on May 6 2013

Defenders:

Heath Shaw ($504,400; Ave 97.2, BE 45, -$36,900) If you missed him last week, this would be your last chance before he’s not considered a bargain price anymore. In great form with 130 and 125 the last two weeks.

Heath Scotland ($502,500; Ave 91.8, BE 95, -$33,100) Carlton’s great run of fixtures is well documented. His scores have been increasing ever since he played his first game in R3 (79, 83, 99, 106).

Corey Enright ($453,500; Ave 88.3, BE 69, -$48,900) It was the Corey Enright of old last week in his 250th game, scoring 113 with the Geelong faithful cheering his every last quarter possession. Only one score less than 80 this season. Those who brought him in last week to cover a defensive hole were duly rewarded.

*Some of the best performing defenders this season: Birchall $545k (BE 185), Hartlett $544k (131), Hanley $541k (160), and Goddard $541k (131) are all set to be reduced to around $500k in the next fortnight.

Midfielders:

Josh P. Kennedy ($570,900; Ave 113.7, BE 131, -$72,100) Still has a relatively high breakeven this week, but scored 173 and 126 against his old club Hawthorn last season, whom he faces this week.

Patrick Dangerfield ($571,000; Ave 106, BE 80, -$65,000) Back to the Dangerman we knew last season with 173. If you have the faith that he’ll carry on that form then this is a bargain price.

Marc Murphy ($551,400; Ave 106.3, BE 100, -$51,500) 131 against the Demons this week. His track record boasts 110+ averages across the last 4 seasons. His next four games are all against sides that lost this weekend.

*Wait one more week for Matt Priddis, currently at $485,000 with a BE of 170. I can see the most executed trade next week being the matured Wines > Priddis.
**Deledio $554k (182), Watson $595k (165) and J.Selwood $598k (165) are all elites set for the drop.

Rucks:

Jarryd Roughead ($487,400; Ave 87.5, BE 94, -$67,400) Roughy has been picking up the slack that Buddy’s left, with 110 and 117 in two of his last 3 games. Plenty of better options on the horizon though.

*Naitanui’s price will be slashed after his third game in R8, whilst Maric $530k (160), Jolly $476k (160) and Jacobs $459k (141) are also set for big drops.

Forwards:

Dale Thomas ($428,200; Ave 72.8, BE 47, -$87,600) Early signs say he’ll be the #1 traded in player this week.  Averages of 94, 109 and 96 in his last 3 seasons illustrate how much of an unrivalled bargain he is at this price. Does go very large on occasion, evidenced by the 150 on the weekend. He’s also gone 130+ 14 times in his last 59 career games. Don’t worry about his first few scores this season, as he’s just been working into form after injury. Dayne Beams showed a similar progression at the start of last season, and we all know how he turned out! The only knock I have on him is that he’s only played a full 22 game season once in the last five years.

Mitch Robinson ($427,900; Ave 74.7, BE 61, -$46,800) Your alternative to Thomas this week for the same price. Not many would vote for him in a head-to-head poll against Daisy though.

*Lance Franklin $512k (204): Who would have thought Buddy would drop below $500k! Absolute steal worth waiting for if you’ve only got one forward line spot left and you’re lucky enough not to have started him in your side!

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68 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums R6, 2013”

  1. Really hoping NicNat gets the vest again this week. Could be a chance too as I think they rushed him back for last week and only got the Lions.

    Get him down under $550k and JJK to NicNat for next to NixNats would be nice.

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  2. Too many choices this week! I should of taken shaw last week. My plan is Dwyer and viney out for Thomas and vlastuin. But I want shaw. Should I just go a double upgrade or is vlastuin someone I need to have?

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  3. Do we look at Cox to Nic Nat in a couple of weeks? Will massive have his score affected once Nic Nat hits his straps?

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  4. Was tossing up between H. Shaw & C. Dixon last week – finally decided on Dixon as $10k cheaper and higher average. Needless to say, was swearing after Shaw’s 125 and Dixon’s 52, but still ended up with a score of 2124, a win and no donuts, so can’t complain too much.

    Thinking I’ll try and get Shaw this week.

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  5. Very good article thanks MJ, those side notes were a great help. Time to set sail on some of those peaking rookies. Already got some the likes of Neade and Stevenson who may struggle to hit their BE’s. Most others still good for a week or two. When Franklin and Priddis are going to be more then welcome onto the team. 🙂

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  6. Daisy has only had one decent score though.

    I’m backing both buddy and jpk to further plummet this weekend. Given hawthorns run from there he represents good buying, even for an unreliable key forward.

    Might hold off on the hale trade until nicnat is available. Or might burn him now for daisy and keep rioli on the Pine to swap for nicnat. … at least he isnt going down in price.

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  7. Took Shaw last week so wrapped on that one.

    Beau I did not play Waters should be a fallen premium for not getting on the Park.

    My Team is like being in a Theme Park.

    Start Pav (Never Started the ride) Gone,
    JJKennedy (Shot me out like the Superman Ride),
    Rioli had me upside screaming delight until the ride broke AGAIN.
    Buddy What more do I need to say been going down hill faster than any wet n wild ride.
    Hartlett, Selwood, Thrown up with the amount of ups and downs there.
    Murphy started like the kids Gee Whizzer, hopefully may get a go soon on the cork screw.
    Beau Waters, pay your entry fee and the ride is always broken or out of order.
    Mumford About has good as the dodgem cars never out of first gear.
    GAZZA pay my 10 bucks for your ride everyday and happily wait one hour in line.

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  8. Have gone Neade and Stevenson -> Shaw and Docherty (swinging Goodes onto the mid bench), still have $75k in the bank, so assuming Buddy doesn’t pump out a 150+ this week, I’ll be doing the following:

    Wines/O’Meara -> Priddis
    JJK -> Buddy

    Will leave me with 19 trades, and only 4 required upgrades (1 Def, 2 Mid, 1 Fwd) with a couple of wait-and-see’s (Goodes and Leuenberger). All in all, I’m fairly happy with how the team is shaping up, but it’s gonna come down to the mid-season rookie picks that will determine how many trades each of those upgrades takes.

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  9. what do people think of Jarrod Harbrow. Looking at his stats seems to get plenty of it but must not be the best user of the ball?
    Also anyone thinking of bringing in Boomer this week?

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  10. Great write up MJ i would love too get Daisy in my fwd line this but i think my backline needs more work. So i think i might have too slot Shaw in. Then the following week will be Kennedy>Buddy

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  11. Welcome to the Domianators Daisy. Looking forward to the rookie review, I cant see any value unless Docherty gets named. Vlaustin awkwardly priced.

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  12. T/U: Dale Thomas and $347,800 in the bank.
    T/D: Steve Johnson and $221,400 in the bank.

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  13. what do guys think of lester? averaging 120 out of defence. fair to say he’ll see a lot of the ball playing there for brisbane.
    and crozier? averaging 88 after a 92 on the weekend and heavily rated by freo apparently so as far as getting a game he should be no worries. both have neagtive b/e’s 🙂
    lester may be a good downgrade option for an under-performing back or a sort of sideways trade. i dare say he will continue to be picked if he keeps playing well. i havent seen any of his games but getting 111 & 130 in his first games suggests he may be one to look at?

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  14. Hey guys
    Im wondering what to do with viney? i know his BE is high this week but once that 7 is out of the system he is expected to rise another 40k or so

    T/U – hold him
    T/D – trade him

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  15. I love your post MJ, thanks.

    MJ I would love to hear more of your thoughts on JPK. I wanted him from the start but went with Cotch instead and thought ROK would be a good POD after a stellar finish to 2012 (been ok but not great … yet). What I think I have seen is ROK and JPK’s scores go from amazing last year to quite good this year. What I am also seeing is very impressive scoring from Jack, Hannebery, Parker and McVeigh. Maybe Horse is using the start of the year to share the ball around? Maybe he has decided ROK and JPK will play different roles this year? Maybe he wants to be less predictable and have more and more mids who can be game-breakers on any given day.

    Do you have any thoughts? Who do you think will be the best scoring Swan mid this season?

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  16. Who is more important to bring in this week… Daisy or Danger? Danger has GWS this week and will likely smash his BE!

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  17. Trading out Dwyer and the injured Cyril for one of two options.

    T/U – Daisy + A.Walker

    T/D – Daisy + Heater

    Concerned that Shaw struggles against Freo (never scored over 94 against them), so while he should still crack his BE it may not be by as much as people think.

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  18. Is Dale Thomas really worth it ?
    He’s never been a huge scorer in this game and Friday night was a fluke. He won’t get that away with that against good sides and with Ball and Beams returning soon I don’t like his chances.

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  19. I have kept Zorko from the start. Perfect swap to Thomas given Brisbane’s fixture. But they seem similar this year in that they both score average totals then belt out a 150+.

    TU Get on Thomas

    TD Keep Zorko and hope for 2012 form.

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  20. Never trade Premiums!!

    I did Roughead – Westhoff, expecting the big price rise from the Hoff.

    Roughead bounced back and is averaging 102 in his last three unlike Westhoff who is averaging 83 in his last 3 (including the 149 a few weeks back).

    Another rule I have just understood:
    Never trade in players who are not known for being premiums because they will burn you. e.g Westhoff.

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