The Fallen Premiums – R7

Written by MJ on May 10 2017


Alex Rance $471K (-$64.3K) AVE 87.6, BE 81 – Followed up last week’s 106 with a 92 in the Tigers’ loss (robbing) to the Bulldogs. Hasn’t been amazing thus far in 2017 from a SuperCoach perspective, but history shows that he’s capable of pulling a 140/150 out of the bag at any given moment (twice each in 2015 and 2016).

Jason Johannisen $469K (-$44.1K) AVE 93.7, BE 102 – Was a revelation in 2016, tonning up in all three pre-season matches, R1 and R2 before succumbing to a hamstring injury in R4. He stood up when it was needed for the Dogs last week. A 67 v the Giants a fortnight ago has sent his price down to very reasonable levels and could be seen as an attractive POD.

Coming down:
Howe $488K, BE 158
Montagna $502K, BE 130


Scott Pendlebury $564K (-$81.7K) AVE 113.1, BE 93 – Quieter in R7 (91) after a monstrous R6 of 149. No one will doubt his ability in this game. If you don’t have Pendles yet, you’ve surely got to be having a serious look in at this price. With a breakeven of less than 100, it’s bound to be one of his lowest price points this year.

Zach Merrett $543K (-$63.2K) AVE 108.7, BE 99 – Scored his highest for the year in the loss to the Dockers with 133 on Sunday night. Bypassed due to his forward eligibility being stripped this year, Merrett has for the most part continued his good work from 2016. A recent run of 83 and 89 has brought his price down to a level that screams value for a bloke who averaged 111 and played 22 games in his breakout season.

Zach Merrett roared back to form this week with 133 points and presents himself as an under the radar selection.

Coming down:
Selwood $593K; BE 183
Wines $515K; BE 177
Gray $530K; BE 171
Sloane $658K; BE 170
Danger $586K; BE 170
Zorko $545K; BE 165
Treloar $525K; BE 165
Fyfe $541K; BE 160


Todd Goldstein $486K (-$102K) AVE 88.0, BE 100 – Our old friend finally raised the bat down in Tasmania in the unexpected win over the Crows (111). It’s been the first time since R1 this has occurred, so you may want to see him do it again this week to prove it wasn’t a once off. Let us all take a moment to remember Goldy’s great 2015 season which fruited 128 points per game. Those were the days.

Coming down:
Mumford $574K; BE 168
Martin $531K; BE 154


Lance Franklin $467K (-$46.9K) AVE 98.7, BE 34 – Buddy beautifully done on Sunday with an 8 goal performance that announced to the AFL world that Lance Franklin is back in form and with it, the birth of the Swans’ 2017 season. They’ll face a tougher test against North this week, but I can still hear Anthony Hudson’s voice echoing from the ground after his ‘THIRTEEN’ goal haul on Scott Thompson not too long ago.

Coming down:
Cameron $482K; BE 138
N.Riewoldt $520K; BE 128
Lynch $532K; BE 122


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22 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – R7”

  1. Thanks MJ! I need a defender this week and the obvious option is Shaw. But I have so much ground to make up, I think I need to be a bit more adventurous.
    What does everyone think of Hurley? $488K, averaging 94 and form trending up nicely. Only 3.3% ownership.


    1. Chillo if Zak Jones fits with your bye structure he is worth considering. Not a fallen premium though. 3R ave 117 5R ave 105 low ownership. R 11 bye.


    1. I’m sure Lynch, 2m Pete etc will fly prem economy or exit row but still amazed they couldn’t partner up with anyone to at least fly the whole Team Business Class or work out a better schedule than 23 hrs door to door.


      1. Nope, the Suns can’t afford the $50 upgrade to the emergency aisle. Jam the string beans in the cramped row next to the dunnies!


  2. Thanks MJ. Prompted me to take a look at my side and just realised I can do this:

    Steele – Franklin

    Is it worth it?

    TU – Yes, do it. Perfect stepping stone moves.
    TD – No, hold Steele in particular for a while yet.


  3. Hi guys, first post here as I just joined up.

    Like the look of Rance as a fallen premo but not convinced…

    TU – Otten>Rance
    TD – Otten>Z Williams or J Lloyd



    1. I wrestled with that last week Matteo, I went with Heeney and although he was very good, Buddy went nuts!
      I’m bringing Buddy in this week, you can’t go wrong with either I think given Sydney’s draw. R11 bye is the only downside.


    2. There is a Heeney poll scheduled for tomorrow morning. I’m sure Schwarzwalder would be happy to add Buddy in there!


  4. Is Vince worth a punt at $422k?
    T/U – yes he will be atop 10 Def
    T/D – stay away he will not get better this season


  5. I feel like Pendlebury is too good to pass up but people keep talking about him maybe being a late out, what’s wrong with him?



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