The Fallen Premiums R8, 2013

Written by MJ on May 20 2013

Defenders:

Struggling for Fallen Premium defenders worth bringing in this week. It seems a timely opportunity to make downgrades in this position, with Thurlow, Webster and Staker coming through. All three look solid options.

I will give this piece of advice however:
Hamish Hartlett ($437k; BE 155) and Grant Birchall ($436k; BE 157) will both be unbelievable bargains and ripe for the picking for R12. Both players have their byes in R11, so R12 makes it a perfect opportunity to bring them in at their bottomed out price of under $400k each. One month ago these boys were the hottest defensive property on the market. Whilst both are struggling to overcome recent tags they are still premiums and will just about be straight swaps for the likes of Terlich and Goodes, who have their byes in R12.

Midfielders:

Jobe Watson ($571,300; -$75,900, Ave 118.9, BE 75, BYE R13) The Essendon skipper will have that 66 against GWS fall out of his price cycle this week. Has remarkably dropped $76k since R1, despite smashing out 6 120+ scores from 8 games. The only knock I’d have in selecting him is that his bye comes in the same week as the likes of Ablett, Swan, Pendlebury, Murphy, Dangerfield, O’Meara, Lonergan and Crouch, as well as key defensive players in Goddard, Gibbs and Shaw. Unless you’re intentionally taking a dive in R13, make sure you have a plan to get 18 bodies on the ground that week before selecting Jobe in your side.

Brett Deledio ($544,800; -$79,300, Ave 112.2, BE 46, BYE R11) This incredibly durable Tiger has not missed a game since R17 2007. As much as it is important getting the best averaging players in your side, injuries can ruin the best laid out plans, as many will have experienced this year. Lids stepped up into more of a midfield role last season, averaging 116 points. A very consistent performer, with only one score of under 91 last year, as most of the tagging attention falls on Trent Cotchin. A very good selection this week, scoring 131 and 153 against the Bombers last year.

Marc Murphy ($531,500; -$71,400, Ave 103.1, BE 131, BYE R13) Still has a relatively high breakeven so can be left for next week, but Carlton face the Lions this round, whom Marc has averaged a massive 123 in his last 9 games against them, not dropping below 100 in that time. The new Carlton captain has been one of the most consistent SuperCoach players over the last 4 seasons, dropping only 10 games under 90 points in his last 93 matches! The R13 bye the only deterrent.

*Joel Selwood ($545k; BE 144) scored just 83 on the weekend, so will drop in price further over the next two weeks. Has the R12 bye so poses as an attractive selection for most coaches, except Motts who hates duckers. Dane Swan ($593k; BE 176) is also one to keep in mind for a few weeks’ time.

Rucks:

Nic Naitanui FWD ($575,000; -$36,000, Ave 94.7, BE 101, BYE R12) That match winning mark and goal meant he only dipped $36k and has prevented his price from dropping below $550,000. I can’t see him sustaining his current price over the coming month, so he should become cheaper once that 142 drops out of his cycle, but he’d be a massive POD for your team in league matches, with only 4.8% ownership. Not so much a value pick, but you’d be getting what you paid for.

Sam Jacobs ($422,400; -$123,900, Ave 87.2, BE 76, BYE R13)
Gave him a wrap last week, advising those who had him to hold fire on trading him out. He duly delivered this week with a 101 against tough opposition in Big Boy McEvoy. I’ll raise this stat again for you: 2012 Ave 91.2 pre-bye, 110.4 post-bye. $422k is very cheap for a player capable of averaging 100-110. Take a good look at him this week if you want to save a few dollars.

Forwards:

Dayne Zorko MID ($476,400; -$58,600, Ave 90.4, BE 91, BYE R11) The magician was up to his tricks again last week with a crucial 3 goals against the Bombers, yielding 124 SC points. I just feel he’s on the verge of some strong form again, but has dropped 5 scores below 80 this season, so I can’t suggest him with too much confidence.

Lance Franklin ($443,100; -$174,900, Ave 88.8, BE 71, BYE R11) BUY OF THE ROUND! You simply must purchase Buddy at this once in a lifetime price at nearly $200k off his starting tag! Even if he doesn’t get back to his usual goal scoring antics, it’s enormous value. Kicked just 2 goals against the Giants last week for 107 points. Plays Gold Coast and Melbourne in the next two weeks.

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51 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums R8, 2013”

  1. Heys guys

    I was thinking this week to go moloney to either JPK or Watson, accept to go to JPK i need to do another downgrade, so i was thinking daisy to staker. or should i hold on to daisy for another week and trade goodes to thurlow?

    T/U – Moloney > Watson
    T/D – Moloney > JPK, and a downgrade

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  2. Hey everyone!
    Long time reader first time poster.

    Anyway, I have a problem, I want to get Franklin in but don’t really have a perfect candidate.

    T/U – Macaffer > Franklin
    T/D – Daisy > Franklin

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  3. Wonderful writeup. There’s a few premiums here that I am thinking about and you’ve definitely put a few thoughts in my mind. I wonder, as you say whether nic nat is good enough value.

    Atley to Thurlow & Neade to Nic Nat. (137,000 left)
    Alternatively,
    Whitfield to Watson & Neade to Staker (121,000 left)
    And I’ve also though about options with Boomer

    My questions:
    – What do I do with Atley?
    – Is it the right time to trade out Whitfield?

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  4. hmmmmmm

    R12
    Terlich $370k + Goodes $400k + $80k
    to
    Birch $420k + Hartlett $430k

    hope I can scrounge up the $80k

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  5. What’s up with Matt Boyd? He has been a proven premium over the years but has had a bad start to the year and should continue to drop value over the next few rounds. Is his poor start due to a lack of preseason or is age catching up to him. Not sure but he could be a good pod if he returns to his usual output.

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  6. Hey guys

    T/U – Mayes>Nic Nat (194k left)
    Leaving team
    (B: Goddard, Heppell, Gibbs, Goodes, Terlich, Vlastuin)
    (F: Bartel, Rockliff, Franklin, Nic Nat, Dwyer, Macafer)

    T/D – Stevenson>Hanley (231k left)
    Leaving team
    (B: Goddard, Heppell, Hanley, Gibbs, Goodes, Vlastuin)
    (F: Bartel, Rockliff, Franklin, Dwyer, Macaffer, Mayes)

    Thanks heaps!

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  7. I’m at a crossroads with Stanton, got him at the start of the season thinking Goddard will relieve some of the tag pressure, he started well but I don’t think they started tagging him til last week, he seemed sluggish and I don’t know if I wanna sit and watch him push out another 50. Any bomber fans think he’s a keeper? His BE this week is over 200. It’s very tempting to upgrade home to Gaz

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  8. Can anyone tell me why Ellis scored so low for the first four weeks, then so well for the next four? Different role? Was he the sub for the first four?

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  9. Looking towards my last upgrade in the midfield and want to get my hands on a mid/fwd (already have Rockliff and Martin in forward line) for greater flexibility. A couple of PODs have caught my eye in Chapman (should be back this week) and Harvey.

    Both have downsides; Harvey historically can’t handle a tag (Remember Clint Jones towelled him up a few years ago and Boomer posted a whole 25-odd points?), and Chapman is injury-prone sadly.

    Harvey is tempting in that he has come in flying fit as he has had an extended pre-season due to suspension. But Chapman is just so consistent, when on the park.

    THUMBS UP- Boomer
    THUMBS DOWN- Chappy

    Comment for Zorko, or even Stevie J.

    Alternatively, my last midfield upgrade could be to a mid/def, but it is pretty scarce pickings, only options are Scotland and Heppell…

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  10. hate the fact that about half of these guys are already on my team. shows how bad ive been going lately.

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  11. When do you think I should grab Nic Nat?

    Above it says he will drop, but if he scores another 140 he will go up massively!?

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