The Fallen Premiums – R9

Written by MJ on May 24 2017


Michael Hibberd $437K (+$34.9K) AVE 98.6, BE 35 – His five games upon return from injury have seen three scores in the realm of 110+, providing us with plenty to like about Hibberd as a selection. He has proved (in a relatively small sample size, mind you) that he has still got what it takes to average at least in the mid-90s, as he did in 2013-14 at the Bombers. A meager 56 to theย Hawks has otherwise halted what would have been a barnstorming run up to $500K. Last chance to get him at the current price of $437K.

Jeremy Howe $453K (-$47.5K) AVE 93.8, BE 71 – His disposal numbers were down in R6 & R7, which has sunk his price to a more reasonable level for this high flying defender. Was in sensational nick last week with 25 touches and 13 marks across half back. It’s simply a joy to watch this man play footy. Buy.

Coming down:
Simpson $503K, BE 138
Shaw $468K, 126


Martin celebrates his recent return to prolific SC scoring.

Dustin Martin $526K (-$62.0K) AVE 111.9, BE 60 – Four games in succession under 100 halted what was a brilliant start to his 2017 campaign. An underrated string to Dusty’s bow is his ability to run out full seasons, missing just four games since debut in R1 2010. 23 kicks from his 35 disposals helped Martin on his way to 144 points (which would’ve been bigger if he’d nailed the match winning goal in the last quarter, which he missed!).

Dayne Zorko $534K (-$58.2K) AVE 108.0, BE 73 – It’s guaranteed this man ย will fly under the radar all season, despite his ability to keep on racking up consistent scores. R6 and R7 are his only games below 109 this year, which has sent his price south, but his most recent hauls have been 119 and 123. Currently the 18th best SC player for total points in 2017.

Josh P. Kennedy $524K (-$92.9K) AVE 104.2, BE 71 – With just the two massive scores this year, Kennedy has been one of many underperforming Swans. He has bounced recently, with 136 and 102 in the last fortnight. It would still be a bold move to grab him over other in-form midfielders, but could very well pay off handsomely if we see his mean revert to the average of past seasons.

Coming down:
Ablett $611K, BE 194
Gray $487K, BE 179
Bontempelli $588K, BE 165
Sloane $574K, BE 150


Shane Mumford $526K (-$9.7K) AVE 106.3, BE 87 – Two off weeks has brought his price back down to an undervalued level. Showing better season form than Todd Goldstein* for a similar price. Not many players can score 135 with just 1 kick and 4 handballs (a feat Mummy achieved against the Tigers last week). Imagine if he’d got his hands on the leather a bit more!

*Big Todd also has to get a mention for his recent run of form that has finally seen him justified as a Fallen Premium regular in 2017. Good on ya Todd!

Coming down:
None to note


Taylor Walker $408K (-$36K) AVE 89.6, BE 68 – Bit of a speculative option with quality forwards a little harder to come by this season. The big Texan averaged 99.6 in 2012, but that was a long time ago. Just wanted to alert you to the fact that he scored 24 three weeks ago, which has crashed his price to a value around $50K less than what his average suggests he should be.

Coming down:
Lynch $491K, BE 153
Yeo $548K, BE 144
Franklin $503K, BE 139


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16 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – R9”

    1. ….says the leader of the SCT Group. Here’s hoping you can crack the Top100 over the next few weeks. Good luck, Wognuts!


      1. Thanks Schwartz. I’m not sure whether to go early on Berry to get Hibberd this week. He’s my only rookie I can use to bring him in. It doesn’t effect byes but it means only WHE on field and the rest premo(including Steele Witts). I should have 19 available first bye barring injuries


  1. Great stuff, MJ! Better judgement tells me to take Selwood this week, but Dusty is tormenting me on a daily basis…… it just the yellow&black goggles maybe?


    1. He is really temptimg at current price. I kept tossing up between him and jpk for m7 last week with the plan to bring in Bont after rd 11 bye…..ended up going with jpk but am still considering bypassing bont and going for the value pick in dusty


    2. I picked up Jelwood last week despite his price and BE and rather happy with his output. He’s just steal this week.


    3. Yep. Those sleeve tatts are staring me right in the eyes! I’m thinking Marchbank to Dusty and finally swinging Adams back into defence. He should go 110+ from here so $526k is a steal.

      Still can’t wait for that cheap-ish Bont after his bye ๐Ÿ˜‰


  2. Want Bont before round 12, but not sure that Barrett (scored 87 on weekend, BE = 12) or Fisher (scored 63 on weekend, BE = 9) are going to be ready to cull?

    Been waiting for both of these guys (particularly Fisher) to get a “half decent score” to get their price moving, and now they have probably done it one week too late!!


  3. Struggling to choose between a fallen premium in Hibberd ($437K / Aver 98 / BE = 34) versus a super consistent Lloyd ($508K / Aver 100 / BE = 87) this week.

    After having a year off, I am questioning if Hibberd will be able to run out the season – and also will he be a top 6 to 8 defender?

    T/up A cheap Hibberd
    T/down A close to full priced Lloyd


  4. My eyes have finally caught a glimpse of Hibberd and I can’t look away ๐Ÿ˜

    With 2 spots left I really want Lloyd and Roberton but an extra $60-100k by forgoing one of them for him will go a long way when it’s time to upgrade Myers in a few weeks…


  5. Seems like nearly everyone of my starting so called premos have featured in fall premiums article this year.
    Might stay away from investing my money in shares for a while…



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