The Fallen Premiums – Rd 10

Written by Chillo on May 29 2019

Round 11 is upon us, and marks the last time that all eighteen teams will play on the same weekend for the next month. I’ve made my feelings on the bye rounds known before (hint: I think they should burn in hell), but the truth is that the bye rounds represent an incredible opportunity to make up lost ground. If you can trade wisely and balance your team out across this tricky three week period, you can find your team firing up the rankings…of course, the other side of that particular coin is that poor planning here can see you plummeting right out of contention for league finals. So consider your trades carefully this week, and ensure you weigh up your target’s bye round, as well as all the other usual criteria.

Here are the Fallen Premiums!


Jake LLOYD (SYD), $560 300 (-$47.9K), avg 115, BE 77 – No you’re not mistaken, and there is no echo in here. Lloyd was a fallen premium last week, but this week represents your absolute last chance to get him at a somewhat affordable price before those bye rounds. Lloyd had a massive last quarter against the Pies, and most notably spent a bit of time in the midfield after JPK and Hewett left the game injured. The possible future absence of both of those players only makes Jake an even more attractive trade target. There are still over 120,000 teams that don’t have the Swans’ backline distributor in their defence and his price tag is set to start zooming back towards $600K this week, so jump on now and enjoy all those uncontested possessions!

Harris and his primary weapon.

Harris ANDREWS (BRL), $421 200 (-$58.9K), avg 86, BE 54 – Fast rising to become one of the premier defenders in the AFL, Andrews was on fire in the thriller against the Dockers. 11 intercept possessions and 10 one-percenters, as well as 93% efficiency with the footy in hand, saw Harris post a season-high 118. Remembering that he was averaging 97 last year right up until he was KOed by a flying elbow from Jeremy Cameron, Andrews is incredible value at this price point.

Backing it up….
Kade Simpson, $427K, BE 145
Zac Williams, $505K, BE 144 (injured)
James Sicily, $504K, BE 133


Scott PENDLEBURY (COL), $533 400 (-$28.6K), avg 105, BE 92 – Pendles’ performance against the Swans last Friday night would be a career highlight for most players, but the man is a victim of his own consistent excellence. 29 possessions, nine tackles, a goal and 146 points for the Pies’ skipper, who has gone from an uber premium a couple of years ago to an incredible point of difference at only 5% ownership. He may not have the consistency of yesteryear, but he has gone 120+ four times already this season, and should definitely be on your radar on reputation alone.

Limbo land….
Clayton Oliver, $586K, BE 180
Patrick Cripps, $575K, BE 160
Matt Crouch, $510K, BE 152
Lachie Neale, $619K, BE 141
Stephen Coniglio, $478K, BE 133


Max GAWN (MEL), $655 100 (-$37.0K), avg 124, BE 96 – Brodie has his go last week, this week it’s Super Maxy’s turn. The past two weeks have seen Gawn amass 144 and 149, and you should expect him to dominate again this week against the promising but inexperienced O’Brien.

Just quickly: He’s not a fallen premium, but Rory Lobb ($478K, avg 91, BE 84) was magnificent against the Lions, especially when the game was on the line. Lobb has shown solid form all year at his new club, and is the standout option for a R/F swingman this year. He may be a popular trade target in round 13 after Freo’s bye.


Yeah, let’s just not talk about this one, OK?

Jack DARLING (WCE), $379 700 (-$92.0K), avg 71, BE 51 – Darling was the worst of Supercoach mistakes, the misfiring POD, earlier this season when he could only manage 31 points across rounds 5 and 6. Jack has since bounced back to show signs of the form that saw him post seven hundreds last season. West Coast do not face a top 8 team for the next month, so the opportunity may be there for the Eagles’ key forwards to kick a few snags too. Definitely worth considering as an F6/7 option for the run home!

Robbie GRAY (PTA), $392 000 (-$133.5K), avg 78, BE 90 – Everyone knows what a class act Robbie is, but of course it would be remiss of me not to mention the usual risks that come with his selection: injury and role. Gray returned from a broken hand against the Hawks on Saturday, and encouragingly for potential buyers, he roamed all over the ground in compiling 27 disposals and 89 points. He would’ve scored higher but for unfavourable conditions and probably a bit of rust too, so there is certainly upside here. Cheap, DPP and a proven performer, what more do you need to know?

Forward thinking….
Mitch Robinson, $492K, BE 147
Travis Boak, $515K, BE 123


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12 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 10”

  1. Nice one Chillo.
    I can’t take any R13 players right now.
    I know a few are considering R Gray, but I have doubts myself. 71% (of 230 votes) on Twitter, gave a resounding NO!
    What about Kade SIMPSON?
    TU: genius trade in when he bottoms out
    TD: he’s a trap whatever the price


    1. K Simpson:
      Inclusive of injury affected game 2019 is the 1st time since 2008 he has averaged below 20 disposals and exclusive of injury affected game is the lowest disposal avg since 2008.

      Inclusive or exclusive of the injury affected game it is Simpson’s lowest marks avg since 2005.

      Inclusive or exclusive of his injury affected game 2019 is his lowest TOG avg since 2009. 5 games below 85% TOG in 2019 (4 excluding the injury) in comparison to 4 below 85% TOG between 2015-2018 (85 games) and 5 games below 85% TOG between RD11 2014 to RD23 2018 (98 games).

      Will likely fall below 400,000 in the next fortnight and for coaches with limited cash gen he should be a great value option but I wouldn’t sacrifice Hore/Duursma for him instead utilising Clark/Answerth.


  2. Just so everyone knows, Robbie was carrying a shoulder injury earlier in the year. If you listen to Hinkley on SEN yesterday he talks about how Robbie’s weeks off with the finger were really a blessing in disguise because it let him rest up the shoulder.

    Is definitely on my radar at that price


    1. Agree Duffer. I know everyone likes to target the expensive players, but that is just not a feasible strategy unless you want to finish the year with rookies on the field. If Gray plays well this week, he’s going to be very hard to ignore in round 13.


    2. had him couple of yrs ago , never forget him pouting on the bench like a child ,
      don’t think he can mentally sustain a season any more
      on my never again list,
      could work for those desperate for a 70 pt av player


  3. I just don’t know what to do with Lloyd. I’m tempted to bring him in now and he would absolutely destroy my bye structure or I wait until after his bye and pay the extra 60k.
    I am missing out not having him but feel I’ve left it too late


    1. +1 Tebs. I’m just hoping he doesn’t go bananas in the next couple of weeks, and I can pick him up after the bye for roughly the same price. Wishful thinking?


    2. Are you also struggling on other lines for R13 Tebs?

      I’m planning on getting rid of ALL R13 rookies except Hore and Hinge before that bye. That leaves me with 19 on field, 13 premos, with NO rucks and one DEF short.

      Obviously there may be carnage between now and then, but I’m content with that given the other two bye weeks I’m looking very strong in terms of numbers and premos.

      Wouldn’t worry too much about it, if you’re in a similar position. Figure one more rookie than premo is likely gonna cost me 50pts that week, but the other two byes should more than compensate.

      Good luck!


      1. You make some excellent points and I think once I trade Clark and Moore I’ll actually be in a pretty good position. I’ve done a bit more playing around with the excellent Macca’s bye planner and I think I can make it work.

        The complicating factor is Z Williams. I think there is a high chance he won’t play again before the bye which will really cost me over the first two rounds. I’m now contemplating trading him to Lloyd this week.


        1. Make sure you nominate any players you don’t think will play and also check the checker lower down to make sure you don’t have more players on any one line than can be on field!! This catches people out when they think they have 18 only to then see all 3 rucks are included etc!!

          Good luck!!


  4. Is it worth trading in boak if it means not fielding someone like Corbett on field this week?
    TD: yes
    TD: no


    1. Probably not, however if you have lots playing in rd 12, and afford to carry boak next week so you and trade in others after his bye I don’t actually mind it



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