It’s the rookies that have captured much of the AFL limelight this season. Pubs, clubs and the Twittersphere have all played host to fierce debate: Is Sam Walsh a lock for the Rising Star? How did every other club pass on Sydney Stack? How good can Nick Blakey wind up being? Has there been a better rookie mullet than Bailey Smith? Connor Rozee, Gryan Miers, Jordan Clark; this years crop of newbies have certainly shown no nerves when it comes to big time footy.
And yet in this modern age of sports medicine, it’s a collection of old timers who just keep getting it done. Shannon Hurn looks to be a lock for All-Australian captaincy. Travis Boak is having a career best year, as is Ricky Henderson, while the Pies are still guided around the park by the ever reliable Scott Pendlebury. And as you’ll see below, there are a few other “senior citizens” who still retain their Supercoach relevance, despite their tender ages. Here are the Fallen Premiums!
DEFENDERS
Jack CRISP (COL), $457 500 (-$62.4K), avg 90, BE 63 – After a stellar 2018, this season has been a bit more of a struggle for Crisp. Whether it’s due to the Pies’ form or his own, Crisp has posted lower Supercoach numbers this year, despite recording more possessions. He has posted scores of 109 and 99 since the bye however, and may be an inspired choice for your D6 at this price if he can raise his game on the run home.
Backing it up….
Jake Lloyd, $575K, BE 174
Bachar Houli, $502K, BE 169
Lachie Whitfield, $564K, BE 154
Harris Andrews, $440K, BE 139
James Sicily, $435K, BE 135
MIDFIELDERS
Marc MURPHY (CAR), $379 100 (-$122.4K), avg 81, BE 1 – One of the more memorable match-winning goals in recent times was the cherry on top for Murph against the Dockers. After getting Mummified in round 9, that 18 drops out of the cycle now, and suddenly the Blues stalwart is a tempting proposition at M8 or M9. It’s been a while since Murphy averaged triple figures in a season and he is certainly in the twilight of his career, but the only question you need answered is this: can he put together eight good games for you, right now?
Jack REDDEN (WCE), $480 500 (-$36.9K), avg 91, BE 35 – Often overlooked for more highly fancied teammates such as Yeo and Gaff, Redden is quietly putting together a nice run of form of late, posting three consecutive tons. The ex-Lion is more than capable of sustaining that output, recording three seasons of 100+ at Brisbane, and posting 95 ppg last season, including 121 ppg in an outstanding finals series. Still under-priced and underrated, and somehow only in 795 teams!
Josh P. KENNEDY (SYD), $504 600 (-$21.0K), avg 106, BE 97 – Yet another veteran putting together a pleasing year, JPK is still a contested beast. However, in line with his team’s more free-flowing style this season, Kennedy has added more outside ball to his game in 2019. Whether that has contributed to a rebound in his SC scoring is uncertain, but you can’t argue with 7 tons in 11 games. Looked to be fully over a knee injury in compiling 125 last start vs the Suns, and the Swans have a friendly run of games coming up…
Just quickly: Adam Treloar ($529 100, avg 108, BE 60) and Marcus Bontempelli ($542 100, avg 113, BE 82) were both mentioned last week, and each hit big tons to back that up. Both are still excellent value, and are worthy of consideration if you’re looking for a mid upgrade this week.
Limbo land….
Josh Kelly, $630K, BE 141
Andrew Gaff, $537K, BE 140
Zach Merrett, $558K, BE 139
RUCKS
Stefan MARTIN (BRL), $470 100 (-$103.6K), avg 91, BE 33 – Thinking outside of the Bromax circle, Stef has hit two big tons in the past fortnight. His form prior to that was erratic at best, and there’s no doubt it would be a huge gamble to bring him in now. But with Max and Brodie both suffering niggles of their own in the past month, Martin is an experienced and accomplished budget alternative if you’re struggling to get to one of the big two.
Just quickly: Can anyone still afford Scott Lycett ($568 600, avg 100, BE -8)? If not, the whispers are getting louder that Justin Westhoff ($373 600, avg 75, BE 51) and Rory Lobb ($483 600, avg 91, BE 62) could return for their respective clubs this week. Those looking for ruck cover should consider the savings to be had here.
FORWARDS
Isaac HEENEY (SYD), $467 900 (-$61.3K), avg 93, BE 70 – Most coaches have had to grit their teeth and endure a frustratingly inconsistent season from the Swans tyro, who has mixed five tons with five scores below 80. Heeney has recorded 103 ppg in his past three starts however, so those bringing him in now may just be just in time to catch a late season surge. Here’s hoping!
Forward thinking….
Tom Hawkins, $432K, BE 161
Josh Dunkley, $624K, BE 158
Michael Walters, $570K, BE 157
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Thanks for the great work Chillo!
I’m not going to lie, Murphy is tempting me a bit because I’m having to budget a bit more than I’d like to.
Great write up Chillo, wouldn’t be the worst move d train, saw him on talking footy on Monday night claiming he’s the fittest his been in years,plus he had planter facia last year, throw in an attacking game plan from Teague and you might just be on a winner!
Yep to all of that. The other factor to consider is that the Blues play 3 of their next four games on Sat arvo. So the opportunity is there to put the E on Murphy, and loop if he plays well – mitigates the risk somewhat. I’m actually strongly considering getting him for Baker this week, have to wait for team sheets though….
Nice one Chillo.
Do think CRISP is a chance to go 100+ from here. After an interrupted pre-season, it is his ball use and efficiency that let him down until the byes; a tell-tale sign of being undercooked! He has since picked up and this is reflected in his improved scoring the last couple of weeks. Renowned for being a big back-half of season player, you could do a lot worse.
Depending on what your aims are, if you have a lack of cash for an uber MID, Jack REDDEN could just be a great POD with such low ownership. When he gets on a roll, he tends to pick up some massive scores on the journey (huge ceiling). I haven’t the cajones but could be a great pick; sh1t it bust.
QUESTION/CONCERN:
If a now reckless SYD elect to use Aliir in any capacity to fill that void, will it effect their back-six structure to the extent that we may witness a significant downturn in Lloyd’s output for the foreseeable future?
Yours
A concerned owner
* ruckless
I preferred reckless! Have to wait and see the extent of Sinclair’s injury, and who they replace him with. But either way, most people who matter have Lloyd anyway, so try not to fret too much!
You were right the first time 😉
Really agree with Crisp having a good 2nd half. Always does and has had form last 2 games, think I will get him as I don’t think I can get to Whitfield or Hurn
Dunno where to post this, but given this is such a popular thread, I thought I’d post it here 🙂
Lachie WHITFIELD and Zac WILLIAMS
Someone was asking in the ESSvGWS game thread or the How Did You Go Thread last week about the impact of Whitfield playing on Zac Williams’ output, so:
Zac WILLIAMS
when Whitfield plays:-
625pts from 7 games, at an ave. 89.3
High: 121, Low: 60, 100+s: 2/7 games
when Whitfield doesn’t play:-
597pts from 5 games, at an ave. 119.4
High: 143, Low: 82, 100+s: 4/5 games, 120+s: 3/5 games
The sample is small, but the differential is significant.
Whitfield has played 9 games this year, two of those injury-effected. In the 7 where he has played a full game, he has averaged 126.9 (888pts/7 games)! Williams’ presence, seemingly has no significant bearing on Whitfield’s output.
What to do?
As PJ rightly pointed out, Whitfield’s brittleness (he is very slight in stature) is becoming a little concerning, but when he’s fit there is no doubt he is the top-scoring SC DEF, bar none. If you have the trades and the cash, get him in straight away or watch his first game hoping for a price-drop.
If you own Williams (I do), I’d be holding him and watching that first game when Whitfield’s back. Then make a judgment call on whether you are gonna get Whitfield IN FOR Williams, or for somebody completely different.
If you don’t currently own Williams, now is probably not the time to bring him in. Waiting for Whitfield is probably the better option.
Thoughts?? Good call, bad call?!?
Crisp is a wanna be premium @ best