Those of you who have been at this caper for a while now will know that there are a few things you just don’t do in Supercoach. You’ve heard of the Josh Glenn Rule, we all know about burnmen (Rocky and Higgins strike again!), and we know to try to avoid key position players at all costs. And of course, there’s the inevitable phenomenon of Late Season Carnage. No-one knows where it will hit, but you can bet London to a brick that a bunch of premiums will suddenly do an incredible disappearing act at some stage in the next seven weeks.
So, right now we try to conserve trades and save some for those Supercoach finals….or do we? Is it better to spend all those trades and get some decent players on your bench as cover? We don’t really have any hard information on which tactic is better, so what do you think?
Loading ...Here are the Fallen Premiums!
DEFENDERS
James SICILY (HAW), $437 700 (-$132.7K), avg 97, BE 36 – The textbook Fallen Premium this week, Sicily is an example of how circumstance can affect a player’s Supercoach viability. Pushed into an unfamiliar role in the forward line, Sicily looked more lost than an Amish electrician. Clarko pushes him back into defence, and behold! ‘Sis’ puts in a dominant, best-on-ground performance against the Pies, smashing out 141 points. He’s a top 10 defender, but you only have to find $80K to swap him in for the unfortunate Marty Hore.
Backing it up….
Lachie Whitfield, $564K, BE 155
Luke Ryan, $467K, BE 148
Jake Lloyd, $552K, BE 143
MIDFIELDERS
A lot of midfields look pretty similar by now, and if I named a dozen of the best midfielders, there’s a good chance you’ll have seven or even eight of them in your team. Lachie Neale ($571 700, avg 124, BE 51) and Clayton Oliver ($575 100, avg 110, BE 80) are popular picks that are available this week for a lower price than they started the season. But here are a few lesser lights for those strapped for cash, or looking for an M9 option….
Dylan SHIEL (ESS), $483 500 (-$3.5K), avg 100, BE 52 – The Bombers are back, and their prized recruit is leading the way. Back-to-back wins over the Sydney teams has Essendon looking towards September, and Dylan has played his part with scores of 112 and 123 in those two wins. Shiel bursting away from the stoppages with ball in hand is one of the more exciting sights in the modern game, and in good health and at just 6% ownership, he could be an exciting part of your Supercoach team too!
Ed CURNOW (CAR), $427 900 (-$124.3), avg 79, BE 36 – After handing over the Blues’ tagging duties to Jack Silvagni, the elder Curnow has rediscovered the form that made him an interesting Supercoach POD in 2018. Scores of 107 and 111 in the past fortnight have shoved Ed back into calculations if you’re looking for a value pick for a midfield loop. Currently in just over 1000 teams, which is remarkable for a player who averaged almost 102 ppg last season!
Lachie HUNTER (WBD), $449 300 (-$106.2K), avg 95, BE 82 – Recent upset wins over the Cats and Power have the Doggies smiling again, and the little ball magnet on the wing is playing a huge part. With Caleb Daniel out for a month, I fully expect Hunter to regularly fold back into defence and take up some of the slack as backline distributor. Very Supercoach friendly! Lachie has a huge ceiling and is fresh off a 132 point outburst against Geelong. In the words of 1980’s Mitsubishi advertising execs: Please consider!
Jack STEELE (STK), $432 800 (-$79.8K), avg 93, BE 85 – Eighteen tackles? EIGHTEEN TACKLES??!!! Now is the time to bring him in! Sure, Jack has been a bit quiet lately, but I fully expect his renowned fitness to allow him to punch on for the rest of the year while others are fading. Extremely well-priced for someone who started the year with four tons in five games.
Just quickly: Marc Murphy ($423 100, avg 83, BE 27) was recommended last week and produced 99 points against the Dees. Still a great option this week.
Limbo land….
Mitch Duncan, $527K, BE 168
Elliot Yeo, $562K, BE 163
Zach Merrett, $522K, BE 163
Luke Parker, $614K, BE 161
Josh Kelly, $614K, BE 154
RUCKS
Justin WESTHOFF (PTA), $406 600 (-$142.9K), avg 78, BE 26 – It’s been a strange old season from a true footy enigma. After five goals and a spectacular 149 point effort first up, The Hoff then produced 7 sub-80 scores in his next ten games up until the bye, and then he got dropped to the SANFL! But the Bearded One returned last week with 125 points in an impressive Showdown performance from the Power, and he now shapes as a perfect budget-priced swingman for the run home. As we saw last week, ruck cover can be slightly useful at times…
Timberrrrr….
Max Gawn, $690K, BE 212
FORWARDS
Kane LAMBERT (RIC), $465 600 (-$16.2K), avg 91, BE 78 – A constant source of consternation and bewilderment in Supercoach circles, the Tigers’ wingman has done it again in 2019. In the nine games Kane has played since round 3 (he missed a month with an Achilles complaint), he has either tonned up….or scored in the 70s. Absolutely nothing in between. I reckon that could be frustrating for owners at times…but then again, at barely 1% ownership, in those ‘good’ weeks Lambert could single-handedly win you league finals!
Forward thinking….
Michael Walters, $542K, BE 145
Josh Dunkley, $599K, BE 141
Patrick Dangerfield, $605K, BE 130
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Great work as always, Chillo.
Thumbs-up for the mental image of an Amish electrician alone!
Yep, always good to get a giggle in the morning. Strange times this time of year, trades are thin, team balance is important. I have 5 trades left and Fort, Young and Scott looking less likely to get game time.Looking for a cheap solid JS DPP forward, does Zac Bailey fit the bill?
Jack SILVAGNI DEF/FWD does. Since Teague has moved him into the guts as both a soft and hard tagger his scoring has gone through the roof. If you have Gardner and/or Darcy Moore, he could prove very valuable indeed as a loophole.
I was looking at Silvagni this week. Need an F6/F7 to loop Jezza Cameron with and have Burgess up in my backline. Currently looking at Daniel to Silvagni and Logue to Hurn. Thoughts?
TU for Daniel & Logue – Silvagni & Hurn
TD for Daniel & B Smith- Simpkin & Hurn
Whichever defender I don’t trade will end up being my D6
Thanks all
Thanks Chillo. Had to read the Amish Eectrician line to the wife this morning. Lambs and Tigers too. Love it.
On your poll, as a relative newbie to the subtle nuances of SC (second season with a basic handle on it) I am struggling with the best approach. This time last year I had one trade left. That lesson I have learned. I now have six, but I also have Hore and Jelly!
I’m placed 1642nd overall and just want to finish as high as I can in the overall and help a lot of the Leagues I’m in to finish as high as we can. Finals will be a bonus, but has never been my aim.
I’ve $135K in the bank and I am going to trade both Hore and Kelly this week. Do I,
TU: just follow the herd and go Sicily and Bont or ANO
If I do this Sicily will be D5 and D6 will be DMoore and Logue loopholed thru Naish. My current MIDs are Macrae, Jelly, Fyfe, Oliver, Cripps, Neale, MCrouch and Heeney
TD: take a risk and get Silvagni and my beloved Jack Steele
Playing back Silvagni’d be loopholed with Logue at D6, forward with Greene at F6. This move gives me more flexibility/cover for future carnage, but doesn’t look as strong on paper. It would also leave me with a massive bank for BOTH Whitfield and trading Greene, via Heeney for another gun MID. Long-term much better but with so few rounds left does that really matter?
I’ve a feeling going TU, the right move will likely be Whitfield IN for ZWilliams.
It’d be more exciting to take the risk, but probably get a better overall result following the herd. This is where I follow the thumbs to conformity and regret not taking the risk 😉
I was undecided when I started to answer your question but by the end, I had developed a definite opinion…
You’re right, with 7 rounds left, trades need to be BIG point upgrades to make it worthwhile. From this round, you’re looking at 14 points a week on the high end (assuming a premium misses one week and you don’t have coverage) to 6 points a week on the low end (you have rookie coverage that scores ~ 60).
Short answer is Steele and Sicily cancel each other out (cash-wise and points-wise), so who is better to have, Silvagni + cash or Bont?
Long answer…
Hypothetical best case with the Silvagni and Steele option – 1,260 points:
– Silvagni plays lights out, averages 80 (has only 2 scores over 80 so far this year) = 560 points.
– Steele averages 100 (his average from his 10-best games this year, which ignores his 4 or so crap scores) = 700 points.
Sicily + Bont = 1,505 points
– Sicily stays down back and gets his yearly average (minus the 40) = 700 points.
– Bont does his thing, keeps his 115 average = 805 points.
Difference is 245 points, which breaks down to 35 per week over 7 weeks.
Hore + JKelly out leaves you with 1.1 million and 4 trades.
Sicily + Bont = $1,008,300 (~100k in the bank)
Silvagni + Steele = $712,200 (~295k in the bank)
Can you make up 35 points per week with other upgrades you can do with the $296k that you save? Without knowing your full team, it is tough for me to say. But keep in mind that THOSE future upgrades would have to wait another week (because you’ve already got your two trades for this week), so they would actually have to net you 41 points for the final 6 weeks of the season. That means you’d have to be going from an on-field player averaging 80 to one averaging 120 (or two 90’s to two 110’s, if you want to use up two of your last 4 trades).
Little Help,
Last Prem upgrade, Should i get Sicily this week, or wait 1 week and get Hurn.
TU – Hurn
TD – Sicily
Thanks fellas.
This has blown my mind, was leaning Hurn for sure
Go with your gut, Liebs
Don’t want to confuse you even more Leibs, but since Stephenson has been out for COL, they dish out large scores to premo DEFs, like Sicily last week.
And who faces them this week at home. Shannon HURN!!!
I think most coaches are looking at that 100k that could be used for something else. Sicily and Hurn should average around the same from here – I think some are expecting Hurn is / will slow a bit (hasn’t cracked 105 in 4 games) and Sicily to not play forward (averaging 100 if you take out the forward experiment).
$10K short of going Lockhart-Whitfield in one trade.
Whitfield has a high BE (155) so could wait a week but so does Lockhart (90) so every chance I can’t afford next week either.
TU – Wait and hope I can get Whitfield next week, or use two trades to get him
TD – Go Lockhart-Stewart this week in one trade
This is my last premium spot required and will push Logue to D7. Currently have 6 trades.
If they both score their average this week (111 and 57), the gap closes but it’s only by about 4-5k. You basically need Whitfield to score below his average and / or Lockhart to score above his average – 105 and 70, respectively, would get you there. Those scores don’t sound too unrealistic, so if I were in your spot, I would see how they go this week and hope it is enough to get Whitfield in. If he goes bananas (or Lockhart boofs it), just bring in Stewart next week (his average and b/e are pretty close).
You can play with the stats a bit on the TooSerious website for different scenarios, it’s a pretty cool feature.