The Fallen Premiums – Rd 16

Struggled to find as much value out of fallen premium players this week, but you should be able to find at least one to contemplate trading in. For those who are new to the site, this column is aimed at identifying players who have recently dropped in price for one reason or another and now represent ripping value for the potential they hold as players who have delivered for many SC teams in the past. I also cover players who you may want to set aside a trade for in the coming weeks, who will most likely be dropping in price after this round.

Defenders:

Heath Shaw $501,000; 105.82, BE 59.

If he can continue to average over 105, at this price he is certainly undervalued. He and Deledio have been the standout defenders in terms of average points this season, and assuming everyone has Lids already, Shaw would be a great asset to slot alongside him approaching finals. Has dropped $77.5k since round 9 and would be my pick of the week if you’re looking for a defender in the higher price range.

Heath Scotland $478,400; 99.29, BE 109.

If your funds don’t allow for Heath Shaw or you just don’t like drafting Collingwood players, have a good hard think about this guy. You know what you’ll get from him, never dropping below 83 this season, and averaged 105.6 last season.

Chris Yarran $342,400; 66.18, BE 15.

If you haven’t got him in already, you’re probably not planning on making the move at all, as you could’ve got him for $85k less two weeks ago. Still a viable option, but certainly less attractive price-wise now. Has a 3 round average of 97.67 and still $131k under his starting price. I’d prefer to wait for Sam Fisher to come down to $350-360k in one or two weeks, before selecting Yarran at this price, but if you’re desperate for a defender under $350k this week, consider the young blue bagger.

There’s definitely more value on the horizon in the defenders over the next few weeks. Wait for these guys to come down a bit more:

*Brendan Goddard (MID) $475,500; BE 140*

Michael Johnson (FWD) $430,000; BE 132

Matt Suckling $424,500; BE 120

Chris Newman $382,900; BE 104

*Sam Fisher $380,700; BE 121* A 25 on the weekend will see his price go down further and will become a ridiculous bargain if he shows any sign being played as a loose defender. Watch with interest, but I feel Blake’s absence is negatively affecting his output.

Midfielders:

Gary Ablett $600,000; 132.38, BE 126.

If you traded him out over his short-term knee injury and have been waiting for his price to come down, now is the time to jump back on him. Would be worried going into finals without Gaz.

Marc Murphy $466,400; 105.11, BE 135.

Would usually chuck a guy with a BE of 135 on the waiting list, but at $466,400 if you’re in the market for a midfielder this week, look no further than this young gun. Averaged 116 against the Dogs in his career, but will no doubt get the Picken tag with Judd out this week. This is the only drawback I’d have on getting Murphy, as with Judd sidelined for the next couple it will likely limit his output, but he’s too good to pass up at such a ridiculous price. Was $639,900 Rd 1. Value pick of the round, but his price should drop with a decent game, or hold with a great game, so you can afford to see how he goes for another week if you’re not desperate for a mid this round.

Ryan Griffin $454,500; 102.79, BE 88.

A very left of field selection if Murphy is just out of reach and you’re needing someone this round. Has fallen $132,200 since round 1 after his 108.2 average last season, which was a breakout year for him. Has only averaged 90 over the last 7 weeks, but did pop up for a 118 against quality opposition in the Hawks on the weekend. Had a purple patch of 155, 152, 123 & 124 between rounds 5-8, but is susceptible to a hard tag. Has a tough finals run however, so is a risky proposition. Maybe try wait a week to see if Murphy’s price drops into the same price bracket or bring in Goodes as a midfielder.

David Mundy $377,800; 79.00, BE 49.

Anyone remember this guy? You’d probably be astounded to hear that last season he had an average of 118 before suffering a serious ankle injury against Essendon in round 12. Most players take a while to recover from such a terrible injury and many don’t ever return to the same player they were, but a 27 disposal (98 point) game against Melbourne last week showed signs that he’s on the right track. Keep an eye on him is all I’d say. Got GWS this week and Port the next.

Hold fire on these guns:

Dane Swan $625,600; BE 162

Jobe Watson $612,300; BE 159

Joel Selwood $606,300; BE 149

Scott Pendlebury $603,700; BE 142

Tom Rockliff $506,000; BE 150

*Nick Dal Santo $484,900; BE 116* Copped a knock to his knee against Brisbane so may want to wait and see how he goes against Sydney this week.

Rucks:

Very little value to be found in the rucks this week, with McEvoy, Jacobs and Roughead featuring in previous Fallen Premium articles have all jumped well over $500k. Jonathon Griffin, while not a fallen premium per se, is good value at $470,600 facing GWS and Port in his next 2 games. I’d still be wary of Mumford, who’s not scoring anywhere near last season’s output with Pyke in the side. Ben Hudson might be tempting, but Leuenburger is poised to return soon I believe. No other ruckmen under $500k look appealing, so you may just want to find some extra coin for one of the in-form top-dollar premiums.

Those with high breakevens include:

Ivan Maric $583,400; BE 163

Nic Naitanui $538,500; BE 144

Todd Goldstein $507,800; BE 129

Shane Mumford $425,100; BE 119

Forwards:

Patrick Dangerfield (MID) $501,500; 108.07, BE 99.

Has dropped $91,400 since round 10 after reduced output over the last month. He may be slowing down as he’s still only young and the long season is taking it’s toll, but if you have been waiting for Danger, now’s the time to strike. Has got an unbelievable run of games in SC finals, so if you don’t have any Adelaide players you may have cause for concern. Has not scored lower than 86 all season, but only averaged 95.8 in his last 5 games.

Adam Goodes (MID) $457,900; 94.44, BE 59.

Still a bargain after only scoring 75 last week. If you didn’t take him last round, I’d still be seriously considering Goodes as a selection.

Nick Riewoldt $455,100; 100.20, BE 70.

Haven’t watched many Saints games at all this year, but have heard Nick’s been playing with a little niggle (can anyone confirm? GG?), so you may want to look into that further before selecting him. This may have resulted in his 59 and 53 a couple of weeks ago, which have sent his price plummeting. With a 117 and 92 in his last two games, those 50s are out of his price system, so this is probably the cheapest he’ll come. Has pumped out 8 tons this season and has a very favourable finals draw.

Dustin Martin (MID) $433,800; 89.15, BE 31.

Should be hungry to perform well and make amends for his recent two game suspension which sees him back in action this week. Richmond play Port Adelaide at home in the SC GF and every fixture from here on in is winnable for the Tigers. Most have already got him, but consider buying him this week if you don’t. Has scored 96, 168 & 126 in his short career against North Melbourne, whom he plays this week.

Attractive cheap forwards in the coming weeks:

Steele Sidebottom (MID) $510,700; BE 142

Kirt Tippett $407,200; BE 124

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