The Fallen Premiums – Rd 17

Most of us will have to resist the urge to trade this week with finals just round the corner, but for those who are facing must win games to make the 8 or even the top 4 to secure the all important double chance, trading may be your only option. Considering most of our budgets are strained to their limits, you’re probably not looking at the $500-$600k range, but rather searching for a bargain, who has the potential to produce 100+ games.

Defenders:

Heath Scotland (D/M) $484,400; 101.13, BE 77.

Showed why he’s been a Fallen Premiums favourite of mine with a 127 on the weekend against the Dogs. May be the last time he gets mentioned as his price looks set to jump over $500k again very soon.

Michael Johnson (D/F) $414,700; 92.38, BE 103.

Was averaging 98.7 for the season before Fremantle’s bye in round 12, which elevated him to premium status after never showing much in previous seasons. Despite a few quiet games since, he remains the 4^th highest scoring defender in terms of overall points this season. Falling $80,300 since his bye, he now represents great value for money for those who can tolerate Ross Lyon’s antics. Gives added flexibility if you still have Billie Smedts as D/F swingmen.

Alex Rance $388,100; 88.75, BE 53.

Was at the Richmond v North game on Sunday and was very impressed with Rance’s first 3 quarters, which he kept Petrie to a couple of touches and racked up plenty himself. Scored 91 and 96 in his last two and has fallen $97k since round 4. Scored 108 against the Blues in Rd 1, whom Richmond have this week. I like him as a selection and am kicking myself that I chose Newman last week over Rance.

Jack Grimes $379,900; 83.00, BE 13.

Went massive with a 138 on the weekend off 32 possessions and 11 marks. Averaged 94.3 in 2009, which was essentially his debut year after only 1 game in 2008. Has been a pretty good DT defender this year with a healthy 89 average, but only 83 in SC, which shows he’s winning plenty of footy but disposal efficiency could be an issue. I’d generally steer clear of Melbourne players, but if you feel like a punt, he certainly has the potential. Melbourne still have Gold Coast and GWS to play also.

Sam Fisher $366,500; 80.09, BE 111.

Played a key position role on Adam Goodes last week and still managed to pump out a 92. Should improve when Jason Blake returns to the side in a few weeks as it will free Fisher up as a loose man in defence. This price is an absolute bargain for a blue-chip defender over many seasons. Great potential to go big, and should score well enough for his price-tag. May not churn out the 100s like we’ve been used to playing full back though, so be wary. Has Melbourne and GWS to play in SC finals.

If you’re not keen on any of these, wait for:

Matt Suckling $402,400; BE 146

Shannon Hurn $440,600; BE 134

Brendon Goddard (D/M) $435,400; BE 132

Beau Waters $488,700; BE 130

Midfielders:

Scott Pendlebury $593,900; 125.08, BE 110.

Snuck Pendles in here in case you’ve got the funds for him. At less than $600k he is an absolute steal. Got GWS this week too so get on now if you’ve been saving up for him.

Tom Rockliff $490,800; 108.06, BE 95.

Young Tommy has dropped below $500k after that 69 three weeks ago. Cheapest he’s been all season after starting the year off at $615,600. Could be a handy POD in finals as he can go very large as witnessed by his 5 139+ games this year.

Marc Murphy $452,100; 105.40, BE 59.

Can’t go past this man at such a ridiculous price. Will get the hard tag while Judd is still out, but still scored 108 with Picken in his hip pocket all night. He’ll save you $150k over the top range midfielders, which can be used for another upgrade elsewhere. Gold!

Mids with massive breakevens:

Joel Selwood $574,800; BE 167

Nick Dal Santo $463,700; BE 149

Andrew Swallow $555,200; BE 144

Jobe Watson $583,900; BE 139

Dale Thomas $483,900; BE 137

Ruckmen:

Todd Goldstein $490,900; 94.43, BE 118.

Has been super consistent over the last few weeks while not setting the world on fire with his scoring. 90, 93 and 95 over the last three weeks isn’t amazing, but will keep your score ticking over. Got the best potential out of all the ruckmen under $500k. Jonathon Griffin is also an alternative, with a similarly consistent scoring pattern.

Tom Bellchambers $377,000; 85.09, BE 18.

Not a premium in any sense of the word, but has scored 102 and 114 in his last two with Ryder out of the equation. Is an option if you want to finally jump off Shane ‘injury prone’ Mumford, but word is he should only miss the one week, maybe two with bone bruising in the knee. You never know with big men though, so Tommy Bellchambers could be your get out option if you don’t have the funds for a top-liner.

Rucks who’ll be cheaper in coming weeks:

Dean Cox $623,800; BE 237

Ivan Maric $552,900; BE 163

Nic Naitanui $521,500; BE 147

Jarryd Roughead (R/F) $540,900; BE 127

Forwards:

Steele Sidebottom (M/F) $493,500; 108.75, BE 120.

High breakeven, but plays GWS this week. Some suggest his young body is slowing down after an arduous season with some lower scores in his last month, but this can present value for canny SC players. Steelebutt tipped over $600k post round 9, and can now be purchased at less than $500k. If you still think he’s got what it takes to run out the season strongly, consider him.

Not too keen on many other forwards for under $500k this week. I’d have a look at Brent Harvey, Dustin Martin and Nick Riewoldt, around the $450k range as former 100+ averaging players if you’re in the market, but only Harvey showed any form out of those guys last week with a 107. Also, keep an eye on Stewart Crameri for $340,600 if you’re in need of a cheaper forward, averaging 100 up until round 10, but only returned 61 against Geelong in his first run back from injury.

Forwards with high breakevens to look out for:

Kurt Tippett $352,500; BE 192

Paul Chapman (M/F) $512,600; BE 182

*Nathan Fyfe (M/F) $484,500; BE 153* Watchlist him. Returns this week.

*Adam Goodes (M/F) $461,600; BE 139* Has been a disappointment for those, like myself who jumped on after his 148. 75 and 71 over the last two weeks will see his price tumble.

Travis Cloke $334,100; BE 137

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