**You remember ‘Anonymous’? The contributor that wrote about Potentially UnderPriced DEFs & FWDs? That was MattyW…….and he’s back with some more great advice for us. Take it away, MattyW……….- Schwarzwalder**
(Written & Created By MattyW)
…it’s Thursday night and the first match of the JLT is nearly at an end. A mate who I consistently consult with regarding SuperCoach is blowing up my phone, “Newman.”
We’d spent the summer going back and forth..
Me: “you’re stupid not to start with Williams”
Mate: “Newman will score better”
Me: “I don’t even know why I bother with you”
Fast forward to Saturday; now I’ve just recently had my first child so I’ve conveniently swapped a Saturday faced with chasing a red leather ball for a Saturday on the couch watching the JLT with the occasional nappy change. Dylan Roberton who I’ve flirted with at D4 is getting plenty of the ball and just refusing to handball it. Lock him in.
Now as the showdown begins to start I’ve got my eyes locked on the three Power rookies currently sitting in my side. By the end of the 1st quarter, my eyes are firmly fixed on my phone looking at Brodie Smith’s scoring history.
The Sydney Derby holds no real interest to me but I watch the first quarter anyway to see my current D3 who’s been sitting there since SuperCoach opened. He has the ball on a string early……..I still don’t know how anyone could start without Zac Williams.
But you can’t start with them all……….
ZAC WILLIAMS $407,800
JLT 1: 82 (60mins)
Past season averages: 0, 94, 88, 70
After missing the entirety of the 2018 home and away season, Williams did exactly what you want an injured potential premium to do, showed his scoring prowess in the finals without rising up his price for the following year (117, 77).
Prior to his injury Williams was making his way towards a steady incline of SuperCoach relevancy an 88 point average in 2016 saw an 18 point rise from the previous year as he established himself in the Giants best 22, he then improved that to an average of 94 in 2017. One of the big draw cards to Williams is his ability to turn 100’s into big 100’s. With all 6 from his ‘17 season going 109+, with a high of 145.
Williams looks pretty safe to average 85 at a minimum while natural improvement would see him push his average towards 100.
NIC NEWMAN $394,100
JLT 1: 97 (108mins)
Past season averages: 73, 83
I should probably begin here with a little bit of honesty, I don’t like him. Not because I know him or have ever met him (I’m sure he’s lovely). But because on a cold Sunday in 2017, I was struggling for league wins in SuperCoach but had found myself in the drivers seat to take home the four points. A late change in an earlier game had left my opponent with just Newman to play and I was 147 points in front. I missed out on finals by two points that year.
A bit of a mini-SC pig, his rebounding game is perfect for SC when played off the half back flank. At Carlton he’ll be playing off the half back flank. His record consists of 12 games at 85+ from 28 career games. Personally, I can’t get over his betrayal in 2017.
BRODIE SMITH $332,500
JLT 1: 103 (80mins)
Past season averages: 88, 82, 75, 77, 94
Brodie is a bit of a SuperCoach enigma to me. Yes, he plays that much lauded half-back role. Yes, he’s a metres-gained beast……..but he doesn’t really have the scoring history you want.
He is underpriced though, and what he is, is someone who can go very very large. His 2014 season (94 average) saw 7 games over 118, but also 5 games under 70. A quick start with some big 100’s could see Smith’s price rocket up in the early rounds. But one year with premium defensive status doesn’t fill you with confidence. He’s a roller coaster ride, don’t be afraid to jump off early (low scores since 2014; 59, 32, 54, 45, 16, 50, 43, 22, 47, 42, 48, 35, 46*)
*first game back from long term injury
DYLAN ROBERTON $297,500
JLT 1: 103 (98mins)
Past season averages: 69, 93, 77, 91
Looking at all four players they all share similar qualities…….an ability to go large, but also to pull out a stinker. Roberton is no different but his seems more to do with the role he’s playing.
Unfortunately for us, Roberton is actually one of those pesky defenders who is actually quite good at defending, meaning he can sometimes be asked to play as a stopper. When freed up he’s a premium as shown by five big 100’s in 2015 and 8 tons in 2017.
His heart scare is of course a worry but I don’t think it’s enough to disregard him. No Carlisle for Saints certainly dampens his selection but hopefully after round 1 we see the Saints line up with Austin & Brown which should free Roberton up.
…I’ve probably gone on too long so I do apologise for those that are still reading as I’ve written this in the hope of creating a discussion, so firstly let me tell you my current situation.
I still believe Williams is a lock and even if I go with a full guns & rookies side, I’ll still start with him. I’d rather have $100k sitting in my bank than starting a premium I’m not entirely sure on.
I can’t fit Newman in at this stage but going through the numbers, he’s probably the most consistent and certainly underpriced.
Currently I have 2 versions of my team……Smith & Roberton together only cost $630,000. If that’s what you’ve got to spend, a $117-$124k rookie leaves you with enough for a Howe, Shaw, Hurley or Ryan at D4 OR a Steele or Taranto at M5/6 OR a Tim Kelly, Wingard, Walters at F3/4
Those D4 options don’t leave me with confidence, and if the rookies aren’t there come round 1, I’ll be planning to play Williams, Smith & Roberton with the hope that Williams is a keeper and Smith & Roberton are very quick sideways trades to premiums.
If we have plenty of good rookies in defence however, I don’t think I’ll have the stomach to start with all three. 😉
So who do you feel is best option?
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