Roo Bloke has taken the time to do some rucking analysis. So sit the ruck down, shut the ruck up, and read this. Thanks a ruckload, RB!
A lot of people have been on the site in the last 48hrs discussing the ruck scores from round 1. For those that aren’t across it, in 2015 hitouts that go to the opposition are treated like a clanger and the ruck actually LOSES points. Some coaches are even considering the worth of downgrading a premo ruck to a cheaper option with the idea of using the coin in a more points friendly position.
Across round 1 Goldstein was the only ruck that raised the bat with exactly 100.
Is this a glitch in the matrix and normal programming will resume in round 2 OR is it the start of something new, a new frontier in SuperCoach? Well, let’s look a little deeper at the data.
Using the stats at http://supercoachtalk.com/supercoach-statistics/ I broke down last season’s ruck data. I’ve excluded the bye rounds where there is a limited sample size and also round 23 (Nath clearly went on an end of season trip and didn’t punch this data in). [To be fair to Nath, he wasn’t able to get a hold of the data for the final round – Motts]
2014 ruck scores of 100+ per round – avg 7.4
2015 round 1 ruck scores of 100 – 1
2014 ruck scores of 90+ per round – avg 10.5
2015 round 1 scores of 90+ – 8
That seems a pretty compelling case that times are a changing. That the high scores may be falling out of the ruck department.
The only round in 2014 that seems to buck the trend of 6+ tons and 8+ 90 scores is round 4 2014. In that round there were only 2 100+ scores and 4 90+ scores. But in that round there were lots of scores in the 80’s and 70’s whereas the scores this past weekend featured a lot of 70’s and 60’s so it still supports the case that in 2015 the ruck scores are going to be impacted.
We will still see rucks scoring 100+ but it will be less consistent than in the past. I know some people are conservative with their trades but if you’re happy to roll the dice a little, downtrading a premium option to a mid-pricer like Blicavs ($371,900), Leuenberger ($358,000) and Bellchambers ($302,500) could be advantageous.
The other option that could apply to some people is if you have Bellchambers rolling in your forward line. Trade a premo ruck for a premo forward and wooshka, you’re away.
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