The Run Home – Part THREE

Written by Schwarzwalder on July 27 2017

Welcome to the final instalment of ‘The Run Home’, where we take a look at the remaining fixtures of all eighteen clubs from our Supercoach point-of-view. The last six clubs in our analysis are:

 

PORT ADELAIDE

Fixture: STK, ADE, COL, WBD(A), GCS

Four of the last five games at the Adelaide Oval and one trip to Ballarat (am I reading that right? Ballarat? The hell? Why?).  Only one of those opponents are currently Top8 and that’s the Showdown in Rd20.  If they’re good enough then they should feature in September.  Given their record against Top8 teams this year, it remains a question of ‘how far’ in September.  In any case, there are a few decent Supercoach options for the last few weeks.

Gun: Patrick Ryder – Ebert got a mention in Rare Gems this morning given his great numbers this season.  Ryder gets a mention for his form over the last six weeks where he has scored 119, 86, 127, 129, 105 & 111 to be the in-form FWD of the competition.  No reason he can’t hold that form over the next five weeks……..

Smokey: Robbie Gray – Not his greatest season due to constant injury niggles but has still gone over 110+ on six occasions.  Attended more centre bounces on the weekend & with Wingard on the sidelines, his output is likely to increase in the lead-up to Finals……..

 

RICHMOND

Fixture: GCS(A), HAW, GEE(A), FRE(A), STK

At first glance it seems like a decent run home with only one opponent currently sitting in the Top8.  Yet the Tigers have two interstate trips plus an appointment at the Geelong Fortress.  To top things off, they still have to face a resurgent Hawks unit and the Rd23 clash with the Saints might be a do-or-die game for a spot in the Finals.  If I know Richmond, there’s never a dull moment.  Strap yourselves in! 😉

Gun: Dustin Martin – Practically equal Brownlow Medal favorite with Dangerfield at the moment.  Having a fantastic season after a huge 2016 and hopefully will re-sign with the Tigers at the end of the year (fingers crossed).

Smokey: Bachar Houli – Returns this week after knocking back Lamb during Ramadan (Sorry Thommo, had to use it) 😉  Last 3-Rd avg of 129 has him as the 2nd most expensive Defender behind Docherty.  In only 1.2% of teams, Houli could provide a massive POD during upcoming Finals.

 

STKILDA

Fixture: PTA(A), WCE, MEL(A), NTH, RIC(A)

Last four games are played in Melbourne but the Saints are up against four teams that are currently higher up the ladder.  After missing the Finals on percentage last season, another narrow miss is looming if they don’t play to their best.  Montagna injuring his hamstring is a huge setback for the young side……

Gun: Sebastian Ross – Since his 36pts performance against Melbourne in Rd1, Ross has scored 11 tons in his last 16 games (three of those were 99, 99 & 94!).  Racking up the touches with ease, he’s one to watch for the coming years.

Smokey: Jack Billings – Can be very erratic with his scoring but when he’s on, he’s definitely on!  Between Rds7-14, Billings ran at a 110avg and his price soared over $500k.  Has only averaged 71pts over the last four weeks and his price has dived back to $431k as a result.  A bargain if he can strike form again over the last five weeks………

 

SYDNEY

Fixture: HAW(A), GEE(A), FRE, ADE(A), CAR

The Bloods should win their remaining two home games but have some very tough assignments interstate.  While they’ve been on a roll since Rd7, those three interstate matches will show where the Swans stand.  Still a big chance for a Top4 spot if they’re good enough.

Gun: Lance Franklin – Averaging 95 for the season……what could’ve been if only he could kick straight.

Smokey: Luke Parker – Has been a little subdued in comparison to 2016.  His last five Rounds have been more consistent at 105.6 avg.  In 6.6% of teams and always a chance to go large.

 

WEST COAST

Fixture: BRL, STK(A), CAR, GWS(A), ADE

If they’re going to play Finals then they MUST win their next three games, otherwise it’s all over.  Their last two games are going to be very tough so they’ll need to be at their very best.  Might just be out of reach…….

Gun: Elliot Yeo – His output has dropped off a touch over the last month but he is an important cog in their side.  Still the #1 averaging FWD for the season.

Smokey: Josh J Kennedy – Missed a number of games with niggling leg injuries.  Showed his importance to the side with six goals on the weekend.  Capable of a monster score or two over the last few weeks…….

 

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Fixture: ESS, BRL(A), GWS, PTA, HAW(A)

Tricky draw for the reigning Premiers.  In such an even season, there aren’t any easy games.  On current form (can’t play Suns every week) it’s hard to see the Dogs doing enough to play Finals football.  Luckily we just need them for their Supercoach points 😉

Gun: Jack Macrae – #2 averaging FWD.  As a midfielder only he’d probably be irrelevant but as a FWD, he’s been solid all year.  Only gone under 80 in one game & only under 90pts on four occasions.

Smokey: Mitch Wallis – 110 & 124 at his last two matches, Wallis seems to be hitting his stride at the right time.  Added value of dual position status.

 

I hope you were able to gain some information from our look at The Run Home for each team.  Have you brought any players into your team specifically for the remaining few games?  Any left-field choices?  Thanks for reading, Coaches!

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3 thoughts on “The Run Home – Part THREE”

  1. I like Macrae as a replacement for Greene, but I already have Dahl and Wallis sitting in the Forward line and one more doggy is making me feel a little exposed.Like Schawrz says , it’s a tricky draw and if they lose the chance to play finals they may put the cue back in the rack.I’m thinking Josh Kennedy but really should’ve tonned up on the weekend with 6 majors so unless he’s absolutely on fire then he’s just as likely to put in a dog of a score(I already have Lynch at F7 for that).
    This has been doing my head in all week!!

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  2. I’d still bring Macrae in if you don’t have him. It’s The Bont that I’d steer clear of right now……

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  3. I remember a time some weeks back when Nank and Ryder were a similar price … in hindsight that would have been a good time to upgrade Nank. #hindsight

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