The Seventh SC Day of Christmas

Written by Thommo on December 20 2018

On the Seventh day of Christmas, the Supercoach Gods brought to me, #7 a Bomber Bombing…

Six clearances a game…

Five Gold Coast Suns…

Four bargain blues…

Three bench men…

Two winged crows…

And Paddy switched to Mid-forward D-P-P

ZACH MERRETT (ESS) MID – $544,800

2018 Average: 100.4ppg

2017 Games: 22

Past Averages (2017 – 2014): 109, 111, 88, 64

Zach had a year he forgot in 2019!

WHY ZERRETT?

In the 2019 season, Merrett is the one receiving a gift from the Supercoach Gods.

That gift: Dylan Shiel!

Zach Merrett is not well known for his ball-use but even so he received attention from taggers in 2018 and early in the season he struggled, scoring 95, 72 and 79 points when tagged in Rounds 2, 8 and 9. He got better at dealing with a tag as the season progressed, scoring 114 points while wearing the George Hewitt tag in Round 19, but that may not be relevant in 2019. With the arrival of Dylan Shiel, Merrett may find himself running free again.

Shiel has a better disposal efficiency than Merrett and is similarly susceptible to a tag so his arrival should be a god-send.

And for all that I have blamed taggers for Merrett’s poor early season form, that is not the whole story. Poor old Zac also copped a high bump in Round 1 that forced him from the field in the second quarter of that match and, even though he didn’t miss a match, he looked out of sorts for the few weeks following. If you judge Merrett purely on his second half of the 2018 season, he averaged 113.7ppg, more in keeping with his 2016 and 2017 output.

All up, Zach Merrett looks a bargain priced at 100ppg!

PROJECTED SCORE

If you make allowances for the 17 points in Round 1 and the slow few weeks following, Merrett is clearly 5 -10 points undervalued. Add the arrival of Shiel and Merrett should return to a solid 110ppg in 2019.

Are you considering Merrett in 2019?

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9 thoughts on “The Seventh SC Day of Christmas”

  1. For all those reasons he has hopefully got to be a serious set and forget option. There’s obviously a host of midfielders to choose from and separating them can be like poking needles in your eyes, but it will take something unforseen to move Merrett from one of the spots in my team.

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  2. While Neale is still a watch for me, despite all the convincing facts/arguments posted yesterday, Merrett is a lock. Changes in circumstances can also be a positive.

    While Neale changing clubs represents too much risk for me, Shiel’s arrival at the Dons has to be a major positive for Zerrett.

    I was going to start him anyway this year, due to his underpriced reflection of early season output in 2017.
    Surely we can expect a 110+ minimum in 2019 AND he’s missed just one game in three years. WIN!

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  3. I’m an essendon fan and love the guy. But he burnt me bad last year just like dusty. I’m not taking chances this year. The way my team is shaping he will be one of my first trade ins. Yes he’s cheap but he’ll still cop a tag or two and not rise astronomically in price.

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    1. i finished 21st overall and Merrett’s inclusion in my team was one of the reason’s why i picked him up a few rounds after the ko

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  4. From memory, he copped a head knock in the pre-season games as well this year, so his poor pre-bye form can be justifiably excused.

    Lock him in!

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  5. Should be the pick of the discounted/under-priced premium mids.

    Averages 110+ against 9 teams across his premium scoring history (100+ avg) and plays 7 of them in the first 9 rounds. Also averages 110.26 from 27 wins since 2016 with 6/27 below 100, 10/27 120+. If the injury affected 17 is excluded it increases to 113.85 from 26 and his 2018 wins avg increases to 111.45 meaning all of the past 3 years he has averaged 110+ in wins.

    Some signs which illustrate that he can get back to or exceed a 110+ average, is he achieved his highest contested possession rate of his career (39.13% which was an 8.76 increment from the previous year). He also recorded a TOG of 76.41% in 2018 or 79.29% if the injury affected game is excluded) and will be interesting to see if his 2019 TOG stays around the same range or increases to the 83% to 85% range.

    Unsure if his slow start was attributed to injury, tag, etc but in the first 8 rounds he recorded less than 2o disposals on 4 occasions. Before 2018 he had 47 consecutive games equalling or exceeding 20 disposals and 4 of his last 60 matches were below 20 disposals.

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  6. Has been in my team from pretty much the first iteration and hasn’t moved since. $540k for someone who will more than likely average 110+? Where do I sign?

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