The Tenth SC Day of Christmas

Written by Thommo on December 23 2018

On the Tenth Day of Christmas, the Supercoach Gods brought to me, Ten(th) in contested possessions…

Nine tonnes tonning…

Eight-ty points a game…

#7 a Bomber Bombing…

Six clearances a game…

Five Gold Coast Suns…

Four bargain Blues…

Three bench men…

Two winged Crows…

And Paddy switched to Mid-forward D-P-P

BRODIE GRUNDY (COL) RUC $708,200

2018 Average: 130.5ppg

2018 Games: 22 games

Past Averages (2017-2013): 97, 95, 91, 63, 75

#1 WITH A BULLET

Most of the players I have looked at to date have been heavily discounted or ready to break-out in 2019.

Until today.

Today, we look at the most expensive player in Supercoach and I attempt to convince you that he’s a lock! And not just because he’s handsome and rocks a pony-tail/manbun!

Most of you will know the recent history of ruckmen in Supercoach and the fact that no ruckman has managed an elite average for consecutive seasons since Dean Cox. So, by the law of averages, we should avoid Brodie Grundy, right? Surely he can’t average over 120 for two season running?

Can he?

I believe he can! Let me set my reasoning out for you:

Age

Ruckmen take a long time to hit their peak. While midfielders generally break-out in their third to fifth year, ruckmen take between six and eight years. Grundy achieved a commendable 90+ average after just three season, but he broke out fully in his seventh. At age 24 and about to start his eighth year, Grundy is bang on target to maintain, or even increase, his peak output.

Dual Ruck Role

That peski shared ruck role! Well, at the Pies we don’t need to worry. With the Pies making the Grand Final with Brodie playing as the key ruckman and Mason Cox mostly playing forward, it seems very unlikely Buckley will change that format. Surely if the Pies add another ruckman, they are too top heavy. So expect Grundy to spend the same time rucking in 2019.

Hit-outs to Advantage

Ruckmen like Sam Jacobs score most of their points from hit-outs and when they face a superior tap ruckman their lack of hit-outs to advantage hurt their scores significantly. Grundy doesn’t tend to suffer as much, partly because he is rarely out-pointed, but mostly because he wins so much of the ball around the ground.

His hit-out to advantage percentage of 31.5% is respectable but it is not enough to explain such high Supercoach scores alone. Just look at Round 23 of 2018 when he tapped just 8 hit-outs to advantage from 24 total but he still scored 150 SC points. That score was all due to his 24 disposals, 6 marks and 4 tackles.

Brodie averaged 21 disposals per match in 2018 and was actually tenth in the AFL for contested possessions. Tenth!

He’s practically a top 8 midfielder parading as a ruckman! And amazingly, he could actually add more SC points to his average if he develops further in his ruck craft.

Midfield

Talk all you want about ruck prowess, but if a ruckman is surrounded by crap midfielders he will struggle to tap the ball to a team mate consistently.

With Beams joining the already stacked Pies midfield, I think Brodie can tap the ball wherever he pleases and it will probably go to a teammate!

Scoring Consistency

To highlight my point, here are some numbers:

95, 98, 99.

Those were Brodie’s worst matches for the season.

157, 167, 121, 162, 150

These were his last five rounds of 2018.

Dangerfield-esque!

Durability

This is actually a possible weakness for Grundy. He played every game in 2018 but that was actually the first time he has ever managed that feat! Let’s hope we can find bench cover, just in case!

If not Brodie, then who?

No really, I’m asking you: Who?

Tell me a single ruckman that you can reliably predict will be a top 2 ruckman! Gawn is probably the best option but with Melbourne talking about the Preuss-Goose sharing the ruck-role, his scoring could be impacted.

At least with Brodie you know what you’ll get!

PROJECTED SCORE

Really high! 120+ppg at the very least!

Start with him and enjoy the show knowing you have a top 2 ruckman for the season.

Are you starting Brodie Grundy in 2019?

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16 thoughts on “The Tenth SC Day of Christmas”

  1. Gawn r2, if he ends up going worse than others rucks drop him to Mumford. That is my thinking so far. But I have faith he will back it up.

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    1. I think R2 will indeed be the big conversation this year Thommo. Locking in Reg means I will have to go for a cash generator at R2 and as it currently stands that is Billy Longer for me. Fort or Sweet getting a start in Rd1 will make that decision easier, R3. If neither start then Sweet will work as a second loophole until he does play, if at all.
      Naismith or Vardy would be the others I’d consider, but a knee for a RUC is just too big a risk for me, and Hickey in superb nick at WCE, puts me off Vardy (likely FWD time), but we’ll see what eventuates between now and March. A lot can happen as we’ve already witnessed!
      The ONLY reason I’m not going Gawn at R2 to start, is because I think I can get more points on other lines and with much less risk or unknown impacts.

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      1. No love for Goldy? Killed it at the end of last year, he’s been healthy recently, and now no Preuss to stuff his scores up. Seems like a no brainer to me!

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        1. Hmmm … decent bye vs Grundy too. He’s always been on my “I just don’t like/trust him” list. Maybe it’s time to be more objective 🙂
          I do think however, that Longer + the saved cash spent elsewhere will give me more points on field in the first few rounds AND generate cash. They will face similar match-ups in the first five rounds and then Billy has the wood on big Max!! 😉

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          1. Goldstein locked for me and the best option bar Gawn and Grundy.

            Only 2 of his last 13 games in 2018 he recorded less than 10 Hitouts to Advantage compared to the 13 games prior to RD10 2018 where he recorded 8/13 less than 10 HTA. The SC averages in those games was
            RD10 2018 onwards: 110.54 from 13 (2/13 below 100)
            RD20 2017-RD9 2018: 85.92 from 13 (9/13 below 100)

            Also had 5 20+ disposal games post bye (averaged 121.6 from those 5) which was the first time since 2015 he has recorded more than 1 20+ disposal game in a season.

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  2. It’s a no from me, primary reason being the changes to the ruck rules.

    Not to say he’ll be a bad pick – I just don’t feel comfortable spending that much money on someone that I expect to be impacted in some way by a change to the rules.

    I’ll most likely be taking Goldstein and S. Martin as my two set and forget rucks. Two guys who are proven top echelon rucks without the simply enormous pricetag of Grundy and the risk that entails.

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  3. Lock for me. Every year I pick a perma captain and vice to start the year and I’m prepared to pay any price for them; Grundy & Danger it will be.
    Basically for all the reasons you’ve listed, he gets the edge over Gawn (just) because I don’t see no drastic changes to Collingwoods structure that will hurt him (looking at you Preuss)

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      1. Who are you gonna pick as your VC? I’m gonna go Reg, unless Dusty’s proved he’s playing MID by then, and Otto be him for a lazy 135 (a bit like last year) into Reg 😉

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    1. What cause Mr Eye’vknowidea normally plays five ruckmen by Rd4?! Good luck with that, but I hear what you’re saying 🙂

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  4. Locked and loaded i had him in 2017 he was good when Cox wasn’t there shame about me not having him this year having Stef martin over Grundy cost me making top 10 overall 🙁 not doing that mistake again!

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