To WHE, or not to WHE?

Written by Huttabito on April 7 2017

Will Hoskin-Elliott is currently the most loved man in SuperCoach, and why wouldn’t he be. In the last two weeks he has banged out scores of 88 against last years premiers and 120 against Richmond putting him as the 48th highest averaging player heading into round 3, all for just a mere $213,300! Why wouldn’t you want him blessing your side as for many, he’s sitting at Forward #1 or #2. A 104 average for him is unsustainable for the season though and I doubt there are many people out there that would disagree with me. If you are bringing him in, it’s as a “premium rookie” to generate cash and upgrade him to a premium forward with little investment around the byes. For non-owners you are asking yourself the question:

 Is it worth me bringing Will Hoskin-Elliot in this week?

Well that’s what I’m here for and lets wind the clock back 12 months for a moment. For those who played last year, remember a young Swans chap last year called Tom Papley? He was the must have rookie after churning out 104 and 109 in the first two weeks and was priced at $109k, bargain! From memory, this gave him the lowest Break Even the game has seen in a long time. What was the result? Every man and his dog was after him. Thankfully Gresham was a highly owned rookie at the time and he went down with an injury so it was a simple sideways trade for many, pocket some cash and be on your merry way. Others weren’t so lucky and pulled a sideways trade of another playing rookie as Papley looked a much better prospect. So what did Papley offer:

Rd Score Total Price Rise
1 104 $  –
2 109 $  –
3 46 $ 86,200
4 24 $ 114,400
5 78 $ 121,800
6 64 $ 135,100
7 85 $ 171,100
8 29 $ 176,100

So, after bursting out of the blocks, coaches were scrambling to bring him and given his form, popped him on the field only to be treated with a 46 and 24 the next two weeks, bummer. There were numerous great rookie options last year and a 60 point average in the early weeks was not out of the question. If you had a 60 average player and traded him out for Papley, you were on 190 points from his position after copping the two low scores. Those who had him from the start, were on 283 points and if you had just stuck with your original payer, you would have accumulated 240 points. What happened point wise after that is too complex but I’m sure he was benched out of outrage when he got his 78 in Rd5 but after injuring himself in Rd8 for 29 he was traded out for $176k profit. So was he worth it Huttabito? Well, you’ve probably heard around that place that a trade is worth $150k and that math is for another day, but those who went sideways from Gresham, yes (mostly), but those who flicked another rookie, probably not. The other rookie in question probably increased $100-$125k themselves at a minimum so you’ve really only made $50k, but used a trade and lost points in the process. Even the Gresham owners, who at the time, was averaging 41 when he went down, came back 4 weeks later and made 200k after his opening scores dropped from his system, more than Papley did whilst also wasting a trade. Doesn’t sound so good now does it? Although cash now is better than cash later in this case as he was injured and not playing blah blah blah…

Back to WHE. I think it would be fair if we said he averaged 80 from here on out. If you’re bringing him in, that’s what you would be happy with. Averaging 80, he will get to about $360k by Rd8 before slowly rising to about $385k by his bye at Rd13, when it’s bye-bye. So we’re looking at $150-$175k profit so the trade is worth it pending the circumstances.

So what are people doing? Of the ~150,000 trades that have been completed at the current time, approximately 18.5%, or 27,823 are WHE. 2 people have traded him out but lets not worry about them, they clearly aren’t trying to win. WHE also holds the top 5 most common trades so we’ll pull them apart individually so see if it’s worth it:

  1. McCarthy must go. Averaging 32 points, Fremantle doing a team rebuild, up against the reigning premiers this week, it’s going to be ugly times for McCarthy. If Freo win, McCarthy will play a part in it and score well but as much as I hate to say it, it’s not going to happen much this season. McCarthy looks set to lose cash in the coming weeks too so a trade to WHE is a no brainer. Go nuts.
  2. Now this is a hairy one. If Pickett is parked at M11, I would probably hold the trade. He will play, appear in a match or two and be a slow burner but when he peaks, the difference in profit between him and WHE wouldn’t cover the cost of the trade. If Pickett is on your field and you have Parfitt/Eddy to choose from as well and can afford the trade with one move, I’d be moving him on. This boils down down to points on field as well but WHE is not your traditional rookie and doesn’t have the floor that the others have. If you have someone $200k+ @F5 with Butler @ D6, you don’t need WHE.
  3. Flicking Taranto for WHE is not a trade I am a huge fan of and I’ve voiced this during the week in the trade threads. Taranto is playing and averaging 60 points. His first week was poor (44), it was his debut, father came to watch from Texas (nerves) and GWS lost. That situation will never happen again and I don’t think GWS will lose to many this year, so the performances put up in JLT and the the weekend just gone (75) is one that I would expect more of. Worst case, he averages 70 points to his bye and rises $125k in price. The trade off is not worth this difference.
  4. Roughead was always going to come out slow, but trading him on to a rookie is not a trade I can fully comprehend. He has the capability of being a keeper come season end, so you are trading out a F6 premium to a rookie only to trade him out again. He was picked as a premium to conserve trades, not waste two of them. Roughead also has a Break Even of 57 and playing Gold Coast this week so is sure to rise in price himself. Worst case scenario, he falls short of being a keeper, but by then he will be priced low $400k and will be a 1 trade sideways to a fallen premium for a few bucks. He’s averaging 78 (not awful) and has a decent run in a few weeks (St Kilda, Melbourne, Brisbane) so by Rd8 you can make your decision on Roughead. If you need to cash to grab Marchbank this week though, you could probably get away with it ONLY IF you will get a 0 this week and you really need to fill your team with playing players before prices move. Otherwise Newman, Berry, Logue and Long are coming through in the next few weeks to correct a defensive rookie then.
  5. Another hairy situation. Bowes scored 64 points in Rd1 and had he backed up his performance it wouldn’t be worth the trade. Given Gold Coasts early bye though, you really want him gone at the end of Rd9 and now that the 26 points from the weekend is in his cycle for the next 2 weeks, his growth will be really stunted. A 65 average from here on out will see him rise 95k by his bye. If you trade him out for WHE you are staring down the barrel of $55-80k profit difference, so not quite worth it. Given WHE will have an extra 4 weeks to throw up another larger score though, you could argue the chances of dropping his Break Even compared to Bowes is greater and this might just be enough to bridge the gap and make the trade worthwhile. The trade value of $150k stated above is a rule of thumb, you will hit some trades worth more and some will go under. If you have other pressing issues, you can get away with passing on Bowes to WHE but if you nailed your starting team, you probably have the luxury to make the trade.

Players I would consider moving on for WHE, using some DPP magic (assuming it’s a single trade away) pending circumstances are: Smith, Hibberd, Mountford, Florent, Simpkin, Parfitt, McCarthy and Pickett.

Anyway, that’s enough rambling from me for the morning. That’s only 5 situations and there are many more but hopefully enough to draw conclusions. I have $175k in the bank, Hibberd at M11 doing nothing and are forced to field one of Pickett/Parfitt/Eddy so for me, to get cash generating at to get a low floor rookie off my field, I am using one trade this week to trade out Hibberd and move Pickett to the midfield bench. Two birds, one stone.

What's your WHE situation?

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37 thoughts on “To WHE, or not to WHE?”

  1. Conflicted over this, Sam Petreviski seton > WHE ? Already have a lot of the other ‘must have’ rookies in Houston, Butler, Preuss, Marchbank, Otten (TT, Hannan)

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    1. I wouldn’t Chriso. SPS has shown some X factor to this point. Carlton picked him first up after a limited preseason so I think they are committed to getting games into him and see his potential and I can see him only getting better. He is the sort of player that could have a day out and score a 90-100 and then you would be on your way with him in terms of cash generation. I don’t have him personally, but I’d like to have picked him based on what I’ve seen.

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      1. Thanks Hawks, this was my thinking, he’s been playing well but disposal efficiency is whats hurting SC scores. I think I’ll hold the trade, would be nice if I could move him forward though..

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  2. I have 6 of the 9 players on your “permissible” list, so WHE is a must for me this week. The main difference between WHE and Papley is that Tom is a small forward. It’s well known that their scores will yo-yo, subject to weather, team form, etc. WHE is playing more of a wing/half-forward role, and isn’t as reliant on supply from the midfield.
    I’m not saying he’ll keep averaging 100, but I think he’ll fare better than Papley last year. Definitely worth a trade in my book, especially when I have so much dead weight on the bench.

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  3. Great write up Hutta, one that puts things in perspective. I’m now rethinking my trades this week.Can reverse right up to the bounce tonight right?

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    1. Just a word of advice, if you were bringing Nank in it wouldn’t be as a cow to upgrade later, you’d bring him in if you planned on keeping him.

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  4. I’ve looked at how I can get WHE in until I was blue in the face. A single trade would mean trading out either Roughy or Taranto. Roughy is a flat no, even if he’s not a top 6 forward by year’s end, it’s not worth ditching him now. The Taranto trade I actually lost sleep over thinking about and picking up my phone every 10 mins working through the logic and calcs. Even a double trade meant one of those guys would still be on the chopping block. At the end of the day, WHE had a cracking start, but I can’t justify dumping a rookie on the up. Instead, I can get Houston in for a similar price rise at the same time as dumping a non-playing rookie.

    All I have to do is let WHE go. It wasn’t meant to be as I didn’t leave enough dollary-dos for such a big adjustment. I just have to hope he falls on his face tonight. 😛 Now I have “Let it go” stuck in my head.

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    1. Ditto Fiona, I am in exactly the same boat, and have done the Taranto-WHE trade and reversed it so many times this week. So it’s also a no from me, and are going with the mantra of “dammed if you do, dammed if you don’t”.

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  5. My WHE situation is very tricky

    Only way I can get WHE in is through Roughead, which is controversial. However if I bring in WHE, gives me enough cash to trade J.Smith (injured) to Marchbank, moving Tom Stewart to bench as my backline is quite weak.

    T/U Trade in WHE, allowing me to strengthen my backline with Marchbank

    T/D Keep Roughy, and leave Stewart, Otten and Hampton on field in defence

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    1. Same question has been asked throughout the threads including by myself this week. Every time there has been a different response though! Go with your gut instinct. Currently i have made the trade as i feel WHE and Roughy may average similiar however marchbank is a good upgrade on the field over stewart.

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  6. My midfield bench is Barrett, Parfitt and Pickett. None of them fill me with confidence as en emergency.

    Also have Taranto at F6.

    I’m thinking of pissing off either Pickett or Parfitt, swinging Taranto to the mids and bringing in WHE. This article makes me reconsider though as I can’t see the two Ps remaining at a 35-40 avg.

    TU: Do the trade and bring in WHE
    TD: Your bench is at least playing. Save the trade

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    1. They just need another 3 weeks worth and then some new rookies are coming through. A quick downgrade and then ride the next lift up.

      WHE broke 100 last week because he kicked 3 goals in the last, he’s not going to do that every week.

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  7. Happy with team & don’t “need” WHE however Mountford to WHE via dpp & spare cash = a very warm body 😉

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  8. Already done McCarthy to WHE.
    Have the same mid bench as Rob
    plus Florent , Eddy on forward bench
    but with Simpkin on field.
    Can loophole Florent tonight , if
    he fizzes can swap Simpkin for Eddy
    or just trade Simpkin to Butler/Houston and make some cash ?

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  9. I’m grabbing WHE, but also thinking about Houston as well

    TU – 2 trades WHE/Houston for Pickett/Parfitt
    TD – Just 1 trade WHE for Pickett

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  10. I just had to simply pass up the trade of bringing in WHE. I have 2 non playing rookies on the bench in the backline in Hibberd and smith, i dont want to put faith in Otten, Hampton and Stewart every week so i feel i had to go for Mcgrath. (not enough for marchbank). Then i have mountford in M11 so he has to go so pickett goes to the mid and houston comes in.
    The only way WHE comes is mountford goes to WHE, but then i miss out on houston’s potential and i will probably have to bring in macreadie for smith for cover anyway.

    What is better
    TU: improve the backline with mcgrath and avoid WHE
    TD: play a risky backline to bring in WHE

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    1. Essendon have come out and said that McGrath would be managed so I wouldn’t be bringing him in risk the backline for one more week and then bring in Newman next week if he goes well tonight

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      1. The problem is it is down to an ‘if he does well’, if he doesn’t do well i could be in big strife and i can’t wait and see as i have basically locked bringing him in as WHE has to come in tonight. If he does well though i would be furious for not going with it, ahhh the struggles

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  11. What about this WHE move – Trade out Ablett and Simpkin to bring in WHE and Witts and leaves $360k in the sky rocket (ready for first upgrade).
    Total restructure as it brings SPP on the field, swings Nanks to fwd, SandiWitts ruck combo, pushes Parfitt to the bench and starts cash generation.
    TU = WHE + Witts will score more and $ increase is worth it + $360k in bank
    TD = keep Ablett and Parfitt conserving 2 trades
    Team ave is 2260pts

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    1. Check the captain’s thread Marlins. Ablett loves playing the Hawks. Just loves it. And after his loyalty and integrity has been questioned this week, he will come out all guns blazing. I’m a Hawks supporter, and I’m afraid. Very afraid!

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      1. Cheers mate, I’m with ya with Gazza likely to go good this week maybe 30pos 3goals given all the media attention, fingers crossed the little master is still the little master!

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  12. Only way I can get whe is if I trade out roughy which then gives me enough cash to upgrade hibberd to marchbank, which will move otten/Hampton to the bench, is it worth it?
    TU: yes
    TD: no

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  13. Due to an impressive JLT series, I started WHE at F5 & Nankervis F4 ( Witts R2). Did not trade Riewoldt last week , might have been the right call, but did cost me approx 60 pts by having Hanna on my field. Hoping NRoo will go bang this week

    Due to injury, i am planning to trade GHS currently M7 to either Butler or Houston ( for cash generation ), moving Taranto, currently F6 in mid.

    For those coaches who started GHS, perhaps, a trade
    to WHE could be beneficial in the long term.

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  14. Great analysis Hutta, doesn’t make the decision any easier though. Torn between letting him go, or which rookie to trade out.

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  15. Slightly off-topic, but given that I have Pickett on my bench – not on the field – do you think it’s worth a trade to swap him for Butler?

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  16. Ok this is what I’m considering on reversing
    Out:Ward, Hannen
    In Murphy , WHE

    TU Leave it as is.
    TD not worth the 2 trades

    What I would like to know is where the arbitrary figure of 150k per trade came from?

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    1. That trade seems way to sideways.

      Anyway, your final team value will be worth around $13,500,000 (or $3,500,000 profit) and you have 30 trades to generate this value.

      Best case scenario, you nail absolutely every pick and get no injuries throughout the year and in this case, a trade is worth $115,000

      We never live in a perfect world though. We will pick up wrong players and others get injured. Assuming you have about 5 trades throughout the year for these issues, you effectively only have 25 odd trades to generate the same amount of money.

      Therefore, you can boil each trade down to about $140,000. For margin of error, $150,000 is a basis that people tend to use.

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      1. It would be really good to have a system that lets us value a trade based on money gained, points gained, or a mixture of both, and to do so interchangeably.

        Father Dougal said the other day that a trade is probably worth about 250 points, but $150K, divided by the magic number, and then multiplied by 22 games is a bit over 600 points… surely the two valuations (points and money) need to line up somehow?

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      2. My problem is I have a FOMO complex, I just cant let WHE slide by and sail in the sunset, Your 100% right Hutta it is way too sideways but these are corrective trades and I generally give myself a licence to use them in the first couple of rounds. But really corrective trades may not be worth the paper their written on. I guess for this trade to work Both Ward and Hannen need to Ave 15 for the next2 rounds and then both have season ending injuries while WHE and Murphy becomes a top 6 in their respective positions!

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        1. You also mentioned above that it’s 2 trades when in fact it’s really 3 in the end:
          Ward -> Murphy
          Hannan -> WHE
          WHE -> Premium (in X weeks)

          Doesn’t leave much more correction throughout the year.

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    2. The average rookie is priced at 100-150k.

      The decent ones average 60-70 which means their price tops out at about 300-350k. Problem is that their scores fluctuate and you end up trading them when their BE > Avg. By that time they may not have quite reached the right price for their average.

      You also get the odd spud although that get’s balanced out a bit by the odd star. (And then there’s the ultra rare ones like Zorko)

      But on average you can expect to make $150k per trade.

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