Will Hoskin-Elliott is currently the most loved man in SuperCoach, and why wouldn’t he be. In the last two weeks he has banged out scores of 88 against last years premiers and 120 against Richmond putting him as the 48th highest averaging player heading into round 3, all for just a mere $213,300! Why wouldn’t you want him blessing your side as for many, he’s sitting at Forward #1 or #2. A 104 average for him is unsustainable for the season though and I doubt there are many people out there that would disagree with me. If you are bringing him in, it’s as a “premium rookie” to generate cash and upgrade him to a premium forward with little investment around the byes. For non-owners you are asking yourself the question:
Is it worth me bringing Will Hoskin-Elliot in this week?
Well that’s what I’m here for and lets wind the clock back 12 months for a moment. For those who played last year, remember a young Swans chap last year called Tom Papley? He was the must have rookie after churning out 104 and 109 in the first two weeks and was priced at $109k, bargain! From memory, this gave him the lowest Break Even the game has seen in a long time. What was the result? Every man and his dog was after him. Thankfully Gresham was a highly owned rookie at the time and he went down with an injury so it was a simple sideways trade for many, pocket some cash and be on your merry way. Others weren’t so lucky and pulled a sideways trade of another playing rookie as Papley looked a much better prospect. So what did Papley offer:
|Rd||Score||Total Price Rise|
So, after bursting out of the blocks, coaches were scrambling to bring him and given his form, popped him on the field only to be treated with a 46 and 24 the next two weeks, bummer. There were numerous great rookie options last year and a 60 point average in the early weeks was not out of the question. If you had a 60 average player and traded him out for Papley, you were on 190 points from his position after copping the two low scores. Those who had him from the start, were on 283 points and if you had just stuck with your original payer, you would have accumulated 240 points. What happened point wise after that is too complex but I’m sure he was benched out of outrage when he got his 78 in Rd5 but after injuring himself in Rd8 for 29 he was traded out for $176k profit. So was he worth it Huttabito? Well, you’ve probably heard around that place that a trade is worth $150k and that math is for another day, but those who went sideways from Gresham, yes (mostly), but those who flicked another rookie, probably not. The other rookie in question probably increased $100-$125k themselves at a minimum so you’ve really only made $50k, but used a trade and lost points in the process. Even the Gresham owners, who at the time, was averaging 41 when he went down, came back 4 weeks later and made 200k after his opening scores dropped from his system, more than Papley did whilst also wasting a trade. Doesn’t sound so good now does it? Although cash now is better than cash later in this case as he was injured and not playing blah blah blah…
Back to WHE. I think it would be fair if we said he averaged 80 from here on out. If you’re bringing him in, that’s what you would be happy with. Averaging 80, he will get to about $360k by Rd8 before slowly rising to about $385k by his bye at Rd13, when it’s bye-bye. So we’re looking at $150-$175k profit so the trade is worth it pending the circumstances.
So what are people doing? Of the ~150,000 trades that have been completed at the current time, approximately 18.5%, or 27,823 are WHE. 2 people have traded him out but lets not worry about them, they clearly aren’t trying to win. WHE also holds the top 5 most common trades so we’ll pull them apart individually so see if it’s worth it:
- McCarthy must go. Averaging 32 points, Fremantle doing a team rebuild, up against the reigning premiers this week, it’s going to be ugly times for McCarthy. If Freo win, McCarthy will play a part in it and score well but as much as I hate to say it, it’s not going to happen much this season. McCarthy looks set to lose cash in the coming weeks too so a trade to WHE is a no brainer. Go nuts.
- Now this is a hairy one. If Pickett is parked at M11, I would probably hold the trade. He will play, appear in a match or two and be a slow burner but when he peaks, the difference in profit between him and WHE wouldn’t cover the cost of the trade. If Pickett is on your field and you have Parfitt/Eddy to choose from as well and can afford the trade with one move, I’d be moving him on. This boils down down to points on field as well but WHE is not your traditional rookie and doesn’t have the floor that the others have. If you have someone $200k+ @F5 with Butler @ D6, you don’t need WHE.
- Flicking Taranto for WHE is not a trade I am a huge fan of and I’ve voiced this during the week in the trade threads. Taranto is playing and averaging 60 points. His first week was poor (44), it was his debut, father came to watch from Texas (nerves) and GWS lost. That situation will never happen again and I don’t think GWS will lose to many this year, so the performances put up in JLT and the the weekend just gone (75) is one that I would expect more of. Worst case, he averages 70 points to his bye and rises $125k in price. The trade off is not worth this difference.
- Roughead was always going to come out slow, but trading him on to a rookie is not a trade I can fully comprehend. He has the capability of being a keeper come season end, so you are trading out a F6 premium to a rookie only to trade him out again. He was picked as a premium to conserve trades, not waste two of them. Roughead also has a Break Even of 57 and playing Gold Coast this week so is sure to rise in price himself. Worst case scenario, he falls short of being a keeper, but by then he will be priced low $400k and will be a 1 trade sideways to a fallen premium for a few bucks. He’s averaging 78 (not awful) and has a decent run in a few weeks (St Kilda, Melbourne, Brisbane) so by Rd8 you can make your decision on Roughead. If you need to cash to grab Marchbank this week though, you could probably get away with it ONLY IF you will get a 0 this week and you really need to fill your team with playing players before prices move. Otherwise Newman, Berry, Logue and Long are coming through in the next few weeks to correct a defensive rookie then.
- Another hairy situation. Bowes scored 64 points in Rd1 and had he backed up his performance it wouldn’t be worth the trade. Given Gold Coasts early bye though, you really want him gone at the end of Rd9 and now that the 26 points from the weekend is in his cycle for the next 2 weeks, his growth will be really stunted. A 65 average from here on out will see him rise 95k by his bye. If you trade him out for WHE you are staring down the barrel of $55-80k profit difference, so not quite worth it. Given WHE will have an extra 4 weeks to throw up another larger score though, you could argue the chances of dropping his Break Even compared to Bowes is greater and this might just be enough to bridge the gap and make the trade worthwhile. The trade value of $150k stated above is a rule of thumb, you will hit some trades worth more and some will go under. If you have other pressing issues, you can get away with passing on Bowes to WHE but if you nailed your starting team, you probably have the luxury to make the trade.
Players I would consider moving on for WHE, using some DPP magic (assuming it’s a single trade away) pending circumstances are: Smith, Hibberd, Mountford, Florent, Simpkin, Parfitt, McCarthy and Pickett.
Anyway, that’s enough rambling from me for the morning. That’s only 5 situations and there are many more but hopefully enough to draw conclusions. I have $175k in the bank, Hibberd at M11 doing nothing and are forced to field one of Pickett/Parfitt/Eddy so for me, to get cash generating at to get a low floor rookie off my field, I am using one trade this week to trade out Hibberd and move Pickett to the midfield bench. Two birds, one stone.
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