Trade Talk Rd9 – PART TWO

Written by Schwarzwalder on May 15 2018

Franklin to miss another week, Hurley out for 1-2 weeks with a hamstring injury, question marks still hanging over Billings & Petracca…………plenty of trade talk to get through……..

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175 thoughts on “Trade Talk Rd9 – PART TWO”

  1. Tu- buddy – ronke
    Doodee -Simpson
    Leaves $ for Murray-Hurley/ yeo following wk
    Td- missed the boat don’t trade
    Held buddy this long his a keeper

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    1. Wait and see if he comes back this week
      If you really want to trade him maybe consider going a week early on Phillips

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    1. I’d wait for selection to see if Cumming is a better straight trade. T,McDonald also has DEF/FWD profile if that’s of interest.

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      1. Cheers allsaints,

        I feel with all the GWS injuries, the flexibility of Keeffe (204cms) could play in defence / ruck & up forward switching with Lobbe in the ruck!

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  2. TU- Should I just trade out Doedee to Keeffe and get rid of Naughton next week with more rookie options on the bubble and more rookies ready to be traded out (Cummings, Phillips and Ainsworth) but this only will work if naughton is out

    TD- Or should I one up one down this week
    If so what are some good Defs options other then Laird Yeo and Sicily

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    1. Webster seems to be a good pick up if you believe he can keep his form with roberton out for the year, risky but maybe worth a chance?

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      1. I’d need to check back on his form and what he has been scoring
        He would be a good but risky pod
        Also looking at Howe

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        1. Think Howe might be another out this week (hamstring). Simpson always goes well at the G, but may receive a tag.
          McDonald, T (MEL) and Jonas (PTA) for byes are options.
          Simpson and McDonald are likely to both become more expensive over the coming weeks. Jonas can wait til after his bye.

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  3. Anyone else wondering whether Tom McDonald could be a sneaky pickup? Currently 6th highest averaging Defender and bonus dual position.

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    1. For sure. But he’s playing everywhere at the mo (utility). Three games and he’s played CHB, outside role and on the wing, CHF and up forward. Big score last week (in three quarters only) and is no doubt a gun with a proven record.
      Watching him like a hawk but am going to wait til he has a couple more games before diving in.

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      1. Has averaged 96 in past when Melbourne were poor and capable of stringing 4 to 5 120+ scores over a six week period. Melbourne are starting to put it together plus Viney should be back this week. Priced @86.9 and currently averaging 102 this week is the one to roll if game as he is quite capable of putting multiple 120’s together over numerous weeks.

        Outside of Laird, Sicily, Simpson and Yeo the race for top 6 defenders is an even batch with plenty of possibles and at bargain prices?

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  4. Feeling like most people believe Oliver over treloar. Worth getting Oliver this week and danger next week?

    TU: Oliver this week. Danger next week.
    TD: danger this week. Oliver next week.

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    1. Oliver is the best buy of the premium midfielders this week. Averaging 116.5 and priced @ 103.4 with a score of 89 coming off his 3 game rolling average. No problem with Viney coming back as last year he averaged 106.8 without and 112.6 when Viney played (18 games.)

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  5. Doedee- Webster
    Brayshaw- Phillips
    Already got (Sicily fwd, Yeo, Simpson, Laird, Savage) and haven’t really looked into Webster but looks to have taken Roberton’s role so might take him as a Pod
    TU: Good trades will be top 6 Def
    TD: Bad trade he’s this years Harbrow

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  6. Looking at a 1 up 1 dwn with Doedee and Naughtond down back. Holding Finlayson and his DPP for now. Keefe in for position flexibility also then thinking one of:
    TU Simpson
    TD Mcdonald
    Comment Sicily

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  7. TU Brayshaw to Phillips, Naughton to Simpson
    TD Naughton to Keefe, Doedee to Yeo

    Comment: English to Crossley, Naughton to Yeo

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        1. Cheers Chillo, that makes a lot of sense, but with Naughton and Mirra on my bench, but would leave me with no defensive cover for this round.

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          1. Sure that’s a risk, but do you have any reason to think that any of your defenders will be a late out?

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  8. I still have josh Kelly and will trade him this week, also billings. Trade for Oliver and simpson.
    T/u for yes, T/d for no

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  9. Thoughts on Kreuzer as a fallen premium? Could last week’s score be a sign that he’s back?
    I watched the game and he looked great

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      1. I wouldn’t classify Nic Nat as any less injury-prone than Kreuzer. From 2014 to round 8, 2018 they have played:

        NicNat – 20 + 20 + 15 + 0 + 7 = 62 games
        Kreuzer – 1 + 13 + 21 + 21 + 5 = 59 games

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        1. Nic Nat – 24% ownership
          Kreuzer – 2%

          Could jump a lot of folk if Kreuz continues his form. Has no competition compared to NN if Lycett keeps playing a role.

          Would be gutsy considering early season form though.

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  10. The mighty Zork has cracked two 100 plus games in the last two weeks. $459k, breakeven -9.

    TU Get the Zork
    TD To Risky

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    1. The potential reward is huge but I don’t think he’s learned how to break a tag (and isn’t getting the support from his mates), so too risky for me.

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  11. My plan this week is danger plus and one of keeffe, ronke or philips.

    Question is should I be trading out billings or give him another go and move on 2 of holman, brayshaw and naughton instead.

    T/u just get rid of billings and be done with him
    T/d give him another go, pies have played a number of guys into form

    Billings is my F5 as already have mclean, gray, heeney and d smith.

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  12. Have $257k in bank and looking to trade in Danger. Can’t do Naughton straight so:

    TU Doedee to Danger – $8k in bank
    TD Naughton and Brayshaw to Danger and Phillips – 87k in bank

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  13. TU:
    Naughton –> Keefe
    Brayshaw –> Danger

    TD:
    Naughton –> Simpson
    Langdon –> Keefe

    D – Laird, Sicily, Yeo, Doedee, Finlayson, Naughton (Mirra, Murphy)
    M – Fyfe, Cripps, Titch, Oliver, Dusty, Cogs, T Kelly, Holman (Brayshaw, Fogarty, Barry)
    F – Gray, McLean, Heeney, D Smith, Fritsch, Spargo (Langdon, Henry)

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  14. Will be going early on Naughton to Phillips

    Looking to move on Jacobs – overvalued and under performing

    T/U Grundy
    T/D Kruzer

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  15. 20 trades left. I got sucked into Deledio. Now what to do with him given he will miss at least one more week (and with his history probably more):

    T/U – trade Deledio and Finlayson for Tom McDonald and go a week early on Phillips, freeing up cash for Danger/Martin/Crouch over the coming weeks.
    T/D – save the trade on Deledio and hope he comes good.

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    1. I have Deledio and am holding him. Might even hold him if he, Gray, and some rookie are all not playing R10 giving me a donut. Really hate burning a trade on him with so much of the season left.

      That said your position may call for doing something different; I doubt there is a clearly correct general answer.

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            1. yep. 5, 4, 3, 2 or even one year ago would have been handy! Might have even finished above 30,000th before now 😉

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  16. Before trading I have 20 trades and about $550k.

    T/U – Naughton and Doedee out, Yeo and Simpson in, 18 trades $150k in the bank
    T/D – If Mirra/Murphy play hold Naughton and go Doedee and Brayshaw/Clark out, Yeo and Philips in. 18 trades and about $300k in the bank.

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    1. i went TU. Brayshaw will doubtless increase in price and Phillips isn’t going anywhere this week. The earlier you get the premo points IN, the better off you are.
      * unless of course something calamitous happens, like it has most weeks this season!!

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  17. Steve Hocking’s attempt to get the Tribunal’s decision to clear the Curnow brothers overturned is…

    TU: Him being a sore loser
    TD: His Geelong bias in action

    Comment: Both

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  18. TU: Finally get rid of goldy for any other ruckman

    TD: Upgrade Doedee/Finlayson to any other defender

    Other ruckman is Gawn & only have 3 premiums in defense atm (Laird, Sicily, Yeo)

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  19. Dodee- Yeo
    Holman – Phillips

    Holding Naughton for now as i didn’t have enough cash to get to yeo will look to offload him to Hurley in 2 weeks.

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  20. NANKERVIS missed training today (sore wrist) and is in doubt for the Perth trip. Who’d have thunk it?!
    For those of you like me who have him at R2 with Olango, I think we should be grateful that we have a certain Crossley sitting there in the wings on the bubble. Would like to upgrade him to Grundy now but with Gawn at R1 that would leave me with two ruckmen on the R13 bye, and I’m too tired to do the math!
    So, if Nank doesn’t play this week …
    TU: upgrade Nank to Grundy and don;t worry about the bye if you can get 20 other players on the field
    TD: Olango to Crossley (who would also provide cover for the Nank and Gawn through their respective byes (should he continue to be selected).

    Hope that makes sense. I do waffle. Thanks to all

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    1. currently voting stands at TU0 : TD3
      Now I’ve done the math.

      Assumptions:
      Nankervis only misses the one game this week and then he’s back.
      All players score their respective averages through to R14
      Opportunity cost of a DONUT during the R13 bye = -31.1 = 65.5-96.6 = worst rookie ave score I will likely have to take minus Nank’s average that I will miss because I don’t have him anymore.

      Overall analysis indicates that trading Nankervis to Grundy right now should deliver 90.5pts more than Olango to Crossley from today to R14 (which is when I was planning to trade Nank OUT for Grundy anyway).

      What I haven’t quantified or qualified is the additional costs of the extra trade (Olango to Crossley) and the $20k+ associated costs to make that trade. BUT, I also haven’t costed the risk of Nankervis being rested an extra week (Crossley’s bye meaning a donut will be copped!) NOR Grundy missing games due to his shins, if I do make the trade, risking more donuts and costly trades.

      This is all speculation and could go on …

      The math says Nank to Grundy will make an additional 90.5pts, save me both an extra trade and $20K+.

      Now what do people think if Nank isn’t playing this week?
      TU: Nank > Grundy
      TD: Olango > Crossley

      Thanks for your time and patience, if you’ve read this far 🙂

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      1. allsaints

        I’m not sure you need to worry about Grundy and Gawn sharing a Bye.

        During the Byes the best 18 scores count.

        Anywhere on the field.

        It doesn’t matter where they are

        5 defence, 7 mid ,0 ruck and 6 forward will do.

        The only way you cop a donut is if you have 17 or less of your team scoring.

        I’m not sure Crossley will hold his spot long enough to play through the byes anyway.

        I think its a waste of a trade.

        I would either go Grundy or cop the donut this week.

        Cheers.

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  21. Tu: Naughton > Cumming. Brayshaw> Oliver

    121k bank

    TD: Brayshaw> Phillips… Holman> Oliver

    102k bank
    Means no bench cover in backline ..but Phillips on field not Holman

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  22. Ok lads. What do you think of this?

    Holman -> C. Oliver
    Doedee -> I. Cumming

    Bank: $160K after trade.

    T/U or T/D?

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  23. Got three trades on the radar would really appreciate some help! Doedee, merrett and jacobs are clearly the three weakest links on the field and will all be going at some point.

    T/U Doedee – Yeo
    T/D Merrett – Dangerfield

    Comment
    – Jacobs to Kreuzer
    – Hold tight

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  24. OPTION 1 (TU)
    Naughton to Keeffe (only to move Sicily back eventually)
    Garlett to Ronke (via Spargo dpp) (need the cash generation)

    OPTION 2 (TD)
    Finlayson to Simpson/Lloyd/Hurn
    Garlett to E.Phillips

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  25. What are the best moves to make this round? Got a bit of cash
    DEF: Laird, Simpson, Shaw, Doedee, Murray, Cole (Naughton, L Murphy)
    MID: Fyfe, Danger, Titch, Dusty, Cogs, T Kelly, Petracca, Holman (Barry, Brayshaw, Spargo)
    RUC: Gawn, NicNat (Olango)
    FWD: Heeney, Maclean, Sicily, D Smith, Billings, Henry (Guelfi, Fritsch)

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    1. Dash.

      How much cash?

      Option 1 $
      Petracca to Phillips (week early).
      Naughton to Premo Defender Yeo?

      Option 2 $$
      Naughton to Keefe. (open DPP with Sicily).
      Petracca to Premo Mid. Oliver?

      Option 3 $$$
      Petracca to Oliver
      Naughton to Yeo.

      I feel Billings has more chance of coming good (he did it last year)than Petracca. Viney will be back soon too.

      Best of luck.

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  26. Kelly to Oliver

    t/u Yes Oliver has a be of 75 and is at a bottomed out price and should go up by at worst the same amount as Kelly

    t/d No Kelly has a be of 65 and you never trade out rookies until they have maxed out on cash

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  27. Bold, but what’s everyone thoughts about Zach Touhy? $361,700, which is rock bottom, and definitely has a strong upside and potential to average 97+

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    1. He’s cheap but I think he’s cheap for a reason.

      Why do you think he has the potential to average 97+? His last 3 years, averages were 79, 81, and 88 – where does the +10 come from? Especially when he’s only managed 77 for the year to date?

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  28. Help please!

    T/U doedee—>yeo and Stephenson—>Ronke

    T/D doedee—>yeo and Stephenson—>Keefe (I have Sicily in defense so bonus DPP when Hurley is back)

    I also have Finlayson, naughton and Murray to move on. And o’Connor from Geel – one game wonder!

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  29. Fairly set on bringing in Simpson this week but not sure how to do it.

    TU: Naughton and Billings –> Simpson and Phillips
    TD: Naughton and Doedee –> Simpson and Keefe

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  30. Not really a trade, but do you think it will be more beneficial to have Sicily down back or up forward in your final team. Feel like there’s better backs this year.

    T/U Defender
    T/D Forward

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    1. Personally I am not concerning myself with where he finishes up. Keep trading up those rookies to premos until it comes to the last spot to fill up FWD and down back and see what best suits your team structure when the decision finally arises.

      His DPP is there for all of us to use to our benefit. There’s no rational reason to limit your options by predetermining where he should finish.

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  31. Uncertain as to whether to save the trade or make the jump up to danger while I can?

    Walters and Banfield
    Up to
    Dangerfield and Phillips

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  32. hey guys im thinking,
    Billings – Keefe and swing Sicily to fwd for Keefe, Then Naughton-Yeo
    Thumbs up – Good Plan
    or
    Thumbs down – Bad idea
    cheers

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      1. Can’t do both. After I bring one in I will have 7 premos and Kelly. Kelly will eventually become Macrae

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        1. Right. Comes down to your preference then (and bye consideration).
          I already have Oliver. If I didn’t have either, from here to season’s end who is gonna score more? I’d say Danger. Just. But wouldn’t put money on it.
          Good luck~!

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  33. TU: Franklin > McDonald.. Naughton > Yeo

    Means mids on field stay as Dusty, Fyfe, Cogs, McRae, Titch, TKelly, Holman, Brayshaw

    Or
    TD: Holman> Phillips.. Brayshaw > Oliver

    Backs currently:
    Laird, Simpson, Sicily, Shaw, Doedee, Finlayson ( Naughton, Murphy)

    Forwards:
    McLean, DSmith, Heeney, RGray,
    Buddy, Spargo ( Guelfi, ZLangdon)

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    1. that’s one very strong team I reckon!
      I went TD, BUT you may have three OUTs in your FWD line (same as me) come team selections later today (Buddy, Spargo and Guelfi). Hopefully I am proven wrong. Do you have a MID/FWD DPP on your MID bench by any chance??

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      1. Thanks Allsaints… have been as high as 1600… but around 5000 now after last week bit of a disaster with Nic Nat out & Naughtons naught ..

        I have Garlett but he’s not much chop & will probably get the chop also this week..

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        1. In that case if Spargo isn’t named this week, I’d switch him with Garlett and trade Garlett out for Keeffe (handy as you have Sicily). Garlett will likely take another three weeks to make you $20k max, while Keeffe will make you significantly more than that just walking on the park this week. JS may be an issue longer-term however.

          Holman and Brayshaw should make you a little bit more coin this week I reckon and given the Phillips trade can wait a week, I would too.

          Would also give you the cover you need to reassess where Buddy’s at next week if you want to. Have to admit, I lost patience three weeks ago and sold him, so totally understand if you want rid.

          Whatever you decide, like me too (in a very similar situation), I think to focus on getting FWD (and DEF) line(s) sorted (ie full of playing players come the main byes) is ranking critical and therefore needs to be our priority.

          Good luck with it!

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          1. That’s great allsaints I must say I have thought of that..

            In that case I have the money to then upgrade either Naughton to Yeo or Holman/Brayshaw > Oliver.

            The other option which wasn’t my preferred was Franklin > Ronke then Holman/Brayshaw > Oliver??

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  34. I can’t ignore Sicily in longer… Who do I sack to get him in?

    TU – Doedee to Sicily
    TD – Billings to Sicily

    I can use Keeffe to play Sicily in either position, so it’s just a question of who has to leave my team this week. Cheers

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    1. Not an easy decision, but I’d probably dump Billings first.

      He has a far lower average (-10) and a higher BE this week, so he is likely to lose comparatively more.

      Further, he is still overpriced (MVP 3-round value) while Doedee is UNDERpriced suggesting he still has potential upside (if he isn’t tiring or given a rest).

      Finally, Billings may be one more poor game away from a spell in the VFL. Non-players are not helpful during the bye rounds.

      All said and done, it’s your team mate. Rather than trying to influence your decision, just trying to provide some facts to help 😉

      Good luck with it.

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  35. Are there any good downgrade options either down back or up forward, or should I just upgrade Doedee and wait another week on some rookies.

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    1. I think Keeffe is probably the best option in a week with no real standouts. That said, if i didn’t have Sicily with the same DPP I wouldn’t be considering him either!

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        1. sounds like a plan. Can always pick up Cumming next week, if it doesn’t look like anything else is coming soon, though Ridley (ESS) def rookie is making his debut this week.

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  36. Is Connor Blakely playing his half back role again? Is he worth considering? I just want to know where he’s been playing.

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    1. He is, and he’s not. Does that make sense?
      79% of possessions in the defensive half. Will be DPP next year and he’s my early call for top 3 defender in 2019.

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  37. Big week at the abattoir…… Naughton to TMac, and Henry to Sicily. Dpp at both ends, and suits byes beautifully.

    T/U yes
    T/D no

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  38. Who will have better JS? Need to choose one while they are on the bubble. Only thing is i have gawn and nank so if nank doesn’t play i have no backup but don’t want crossley if he will most likey get dropped in the next few weeks.

    Trade option:

    T/U naughton – keefe
    T/D english – crossley

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    1. i don’t think either has really good JS. in the same boat with Nank. gonna upgrade him to Grundy if he’s not playing.
      I’ve had a fair bit of feedback (further up this thread) that Crossley is a waste of a trade. Is English not playing this week (find out very soon either way)?! I have Olango at R3 🙁

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    1. Another spin on it. I can only afford these combos

      TU – Yeo and Ronke
      TD – McLean and Ed Phillips (take him early)

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  39. planning on snapping Oliver before he goes up in price. and bringing in danger next week via DOW and moving T. Kelly to the bench. plan is to go

    Holman to Oliver
    Naughton to Keeffe

    T/U: Good idea, Danger can wait a week
    T/D: Bad idea, bring Danger in ASAP

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  40. Tu. Naughton + finlayson -> yeo + lloyd

    T/d. Naughton + petracca -> yeo + lloyd

    Leaves me just needing simpson to finish my defence

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      1. I’d go Finlayson and Petracca with your suggested swing. Finlayson is likely to lose you money this week. Naughton can’t!

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  41. TU: Brayshaw & Holman to Macrae & Phillips ($13,000 remaining salary)
    TD: Brayshaw & Holman to Olivier & Phillips ($121,200 remaining salary)

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    1. If you want to trade this week, probably simmo. But if you can wait, then hurley will be good after he’s back and drops a bit in price. I already have Sic, Laird, Yeo and Simmo, and will most likely get Hurley next.

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  42. What to do with lids?
    Got him in at round 5, and has been scoring well. We all know he is an extremely slow healer, but how much longer will he be? And when is enough enough and I should trade him out?
    Currently trading finlayson and naughton to sicily and philips this week.
    T/U: Reconsider and trade lids.
    T/D: Patience, you’ve already waited this much. He’ll be back in 1-2 weeks.

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    1. In the same boat. Am holding for now even tho it’s a tendon to his hammy, rather than a straight hamstring. More complicated but am hoping it’s 1 or 2wks max.
      Am so tempted to pull the pin, but if I do I’ll only get to full premo with six trades left with no room for another injury. Am kicking myself that I pulled the pin on BOTH Buddy and Sonny Walters as their injuries seemed more serious than his at the time. Doh!
      Anyways, I simply can’t risk it yet and his bye is great for me.

      If you have over 20 trades left and only need five more premos, I’d probably move him on.

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  43. Trading out Naughton to fund my other trade

    TU: Naughton to Keefe (123k)
    TD: Naughton to L.Murphy (153k)

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    1. Can you hold off on Westoff for another fortnight? Has the bye next week so you’d have to cop the doughnut.

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  44. TU: Brayshaw> Phillips.. Holman> Oliver

    13k bank

    Means keeps Holman on bench & possibly through byes as better js than Barry

    Or

    TD: Brayshaw > Phillips.. Barry> Oliver

    102k bank

    Means have enough cash to possibly get a Yeo or Danger next week but mid bench will be JGarlett, Barry n Mutch

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  45. If Nank doesn’t play this week…

    T/U – Grundy
    T/D – Nic Nat and keep 130k in the bank for another premo upgrade next week

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  46. I’m considering a double downgrade so I can grab both gray and westhoff after their bye. I’ll then grab Mclean.

    T/U Finlayson and Henry for Scheer/Any other rookie?? any suggestions and Phillips

    T/D Finlayson and Henry for McLean/Gray and Phillips

    Option 2 is safer, but option one allows me to bank 450k with the loss of only 40 points.

    CHeers

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  47. T/U – Hold Naughton for now, Field Mirra and upgrade Christensen, Move Naughton on the week he comes back as he will go down in price
    T/D – Trade Naughton to T-Mac this week

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  48. T/U – Petracca to Phillips, Doedee to Yeo

    T/D – Petracca to Dangerfield, Doedee to Keeffe/Cumming/Ridley

    Obviously Ridley would be an unlikely/non-traditional move, can only however take one R13 bye rookie and not sure on any of their JS.

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  49. Better trade
    naughton/finlayson or doedee to Simo Keefe (TU) naughton/finlayson or doedee to yeo heron (TD)

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  50. TU: Naughton & Finlayson/Doedee for Keefe & Yeo
    Opens link with Sicily in FWD
    $105K in bank

    TU: Finlayson/Doedee & Holman for Oliver & Phillips
    Move Sicily to DEF. Naughton as loop option in DEF with Murphy/Mirra
    $50K in bank

    Comment:
    Naughton & Finlayson/Doedee for Keefe & Oliver
    Both Sicily & Keefe in DEF but could open swing when I move on Waterman/Henry in FWD
    $78K in bank

    NOTE: Naughton and Olango are my only non playing loop options.
    Cheers

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  51. Before the round I had 20 trades left with about $13k

    I’ve made one needed trade at least, which was Naughton to Keeffe.
    That now leaves me with $176k

    Second trade
    TU – Doedee/Murray to Simpson
    TD – Save the second trade

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