Trade Talk Review 2019

Written by Schwarzwalder on May 14 2019

I remember Thommo talking about ‘GroupThink’ during the pre-season and how we sometimes just move with the crowd on certain trades/moves without reason.  I decided to take a look at the ‘Trade Talk’ threads from this season and check on the ‘GroupThink’ moves that have taken place this season.  Here are a few examples……..


After Rd1: OUTS – Grundy, Gawn  INS – Newman, Sheed, Libba

After Rd2: OUTS – Dusty, Heeney, Mundy  INS – Boak, M.Crouch

After Rd4: OUTS – Parker, Butters  INS – Mumford, Rockliff, O’Brien

After Rd5: OUTS – Darling, Menegola  INS – T.Kelly, O’Brien

After Rd6: OUTS – R.Gray, Libba  INS – Hayes, Baker


The sheer panic that enveloped many Coaches after one Round of footy was just insane.   I don’t have the official figures in front of me, but I read on Twitter that about 6000 Coaches traded out either Grundy or Gawn after that first Round. SIX THOUSAND!  That’s six thousand teams who will have less trades than you…….you can bet they’re trying to get G&G back into their teams at some stage (averaging 15+ pts more than the 3rd best Ruckman).

I haven’t included his name in the list above, but Clayton Oliver has been a regular in Trade Talk most weeks this year because he hadn’t ‘gone off’ as most Coaches had hoped.  You can be sure that the Coaches that don’t have Oliver are looking for ways to trade him in before he produces another 175.

Many of the popular trade-out options can be justified with injury or as rookies ‘reaching peak value’ yet some are simply being traded out after one or two bad games.

Now I’ll admit that I wrote off  Mundy in my  ‘Corrective Trades’ write-up after Rd2……although the other recommendations were quite accurate.  I guess the point I’m trying to make is, back your premiums inYou chose them for a reason, don’t throw out your research/gut feeling/studying after a handful of bad games (unless his name is Darling).

In MOST cases (not all) your premos will find their form again.  Concentrate on upgrading your rookies first, that will strengthen your team overall and in the long run (saving trades).  Good luck, Coaches!


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21 thoughts on “Trade Talk Review 2019”

  1. Great read Shwarz.
    Trading Fyfe for Neale after the concussion (rd 3) has looked in hindsight a complete waste of a trade…read too much into the effects of concussion and then when not named made the decision to sideways. Having said that, Neales score the following week (140) got me the ever important league win. Whilst I’ll burn two trades, out then back in, the conservative approach with others has paid off with 26 trades remaining to do so.
    Current concerns involve Cogs and to a mid-price extent Libba and Walsh….but they are for a different convo.

    Simultaneously, backing the rookies has also been an interestingly rewarding exercise. Gibbons (104), Petrucelle (100), Parker (71) and now Clark (81) and to a lesser extent Setters giving back to those who didn’t pull the pin when it looked as though they weren’t going to fatten any further!
    With less rooks available now that extra few weeks cash could be the difference in the end!


    1. I made a similar trade with Fyfe instead going to Zerrett. After seeing what has happened to players with concussion and starting Fyfe with an intention to trade him as soon as he was injured as bringing him in would mean to trade him out at some point due to injury history.
      Somewhat wasted trade, but being the very first trade made it was acceptable


  2. It’s always fun to review what people have been thinking/expecting at certain times. For example I remember Father Dougal’s Sermon after Round 3 this year! He spoke in detail about the 10 players averaging over 120 at that point of the season: Neale, Cripps, Macrae, Lloyd, Whitfield, Dangerfield, Bontempelli, Boak Cunnington, Sloane.

    Brilliant advice for the most part – but perhaps we rely on history too much in this game? Boak, Sloane, Cunnington and Bontempelli are all starting to look like defying the history books and being true premiums this year – even if not at the 120ppg that they started with.


    1. Look….. probably not the worst move you’ll ever make. I just hope you have enough trades left when injuries start happening…..


  3. I made the mistake of trading Mundy after Round 2. Lesson well and truly learned.

    I held Hibberd way too long last year, so was thinking Mundy was going to be the same, looking completely out of it the first 2 rounds. Lesson well and truly learned.


  4. Good article Schwartz and food for thought.
    On another thread I posted that I am trading Dunkley for Walsh and still may in sheer panic to upgrade and complete team. However Walsh decent bench cover at worst and long will purple patch last
    However if Hately is named this week may instead downgrade Atkins or Scott and continue conservative trading up .
    Remember trading out T Kelly last year and regretting.
    T/u Dunkley for Walsh
    T/d hold trade


    1. J Dunkley:
      Since 2018 has averaged 22.04 disposals, 5.33 tackles and 8.89 contested possessions from 27 matches.

      Disposals: 22.04
      SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 23: 117.08 from 12 (low of 86 and a high of 157, 3/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)
      SC avg when disposals below 23: 79.13 from 15 (low of 40 and a high of 107, 13/15 below 100)

      Tackles: 5.33
      SC avg when tackles equal/exceed 6: 107.44 from 16 (low of 60 and a high of 157, 7/16 below 100, 5/16 120+)
      SC avg when tackles below 6: 79.36 from 11 (low of 40 and a high of 116, 9/11 below 100)

      Contested possessions: 8.89
      SC avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 9: 118.33 from 12 (low of 93 and a high of 157, 3/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)
      SC avg when contested possessions below 9: 78.13 from 15 (low of 40 and a high of 107, 13/15 below 100)

      J Dunkley:
      SC avg: 84.4
      Disposals: 16.8
      Tackles: 5
      Contested possessions: 7.4

      SC avg: 121
      Disposals: 31.67
      Tackles: 6.33
      Contested possessions: 16.33


  5. Great analysis Adam and thanks again for in depth response
    If only we had a Crystal ball which position he will play for majority of season .Ironically I started with him last season and traded him out before he got going.


  6. Coach’s I need some advice,
    21 Trades
    Ranking 2242
    100k Bank
    Started off terribly 66,ooo so have made quite a few trade to play catch up.
    team bubbling along nicely, no immediate concerns, well same as most of you,
    still have Libba/Rocky/Walsh to upgrade
    ROB on the pine, waiting for the G/G bye to trade out
    missing Danger but again waiting until after his bye.
    1 concern is 3 Port rookies Dursma/Rozee/Drew, I will need to cull a couple at least as the byes come around, just need to work on a strategy for that.
    So my question is should I go easy this week and leave my trade finger in the holster this week, or trade away to try and break into top 1000.
    T/U saves some trades your tracking ok
    T/D keep trading into the top 1000 you have nothing to lose.

    Thanks in advance


  7. Great write up mate, definitely convinced me out of sideways trading Coniglio (as tempting as many other mid options)

    Here’s my trade predicament this week..

    Kitty: $230,900

    Ideally looking to upgrade 1 rookie to premo, whilst bringing in another rookie should the opportunity present (ideally Hately)

    Wanted: (in no particular order)
    J. Macrae (Well priced, suits bye structure)
    J. Kelly (Absolute jet that appears prime for lift off)
    P. Cripps (Weapon that will need to be traded in at some stage)

    D. Mundy (Suits bye structure)
    J Dunkley (Suits bye structure)
    T Boak (Suits bye structure, however doesn’t appear to be best time to trade in?)

    Rookie Trade Options (keeping in mind I can swing Moore and Burgess Def/Fwd)
    C. Burgess ($172,100)
    B. Scott ($172,800)
    X. Duursma ($327,500)
    J. Petrucelle ($274,600)
    W. Drew ($321,800)
    S. Walsh ($439,000 – Only trade if required, low on the chopping block)

    Initial thoughts..
    I’d love to bring in both Macrae and Kelly as I feel that they both have the ability to go large each and every week, as well as the fact they are well priced at the moment.
    In order to make that happen I would have to execute a sideways trade (S Coniglio) out for Kelly, and S Walsh out for Macrae with less than 10k remaining in the bank.. Doesn’t sound too feasible so I’ll need to settle for either or/none in favour of either Dunkley or Mundy.

    Final Options..
    OUT B Scott, IN Hately/most promising rookie
    OUT S Walsh IN J Kelly/P Cripps/J Macrae
    OUT Duursma/Drew IN Mundy/Dunkley/Boak

    Any feedback as to how you think I should or shouldn’t pull the trigger is greatly appreciated!


      1. Good on ya Schwarz. And thanks for the timely reminder.

        Steele > Macrae would clearly deliver 18pts/wk based on current form, but I know it’d be a somewhat sideways trade!

        Last year I’d have done it without a seconds thought, but this year I’m not so sure it’s the right thing to do. It’s more the lack of decent rookie options that make it more of a ‘forced’ move. I might leave that one.

        There is also the Heeney ‘injured’ issue. If he does have ankle ligament issues, they’re not gonna be fixed without a proper rest. He does score better with Buddy playing, likely return next week by all accounts, but is holding an injured premo the right thing to do? Being rid of him would also help my byes enormously!

        I did say at the start of the year that if Walsh does what he has done, then we should probably take the cash and turn him into an uber when he’s close to his peak. Well he has likely peaked, or as near as dammit. I could turn him into JKelly or Sloane in a single trade, but will Jelly play every game from here? I have some doubts. Is Sloane a top8 mid from here? I’m not 100% sure he is.

        Too many questions and no clear answers in my now muddled mind.

        Any thoughts/help greatly appreciated!

        Thanks again Schwarz. Great stuff!


  8. Trading out B.Smith and Walsh and bringing in Oliver and

    T/U Zerrett
    T/D Zorko – allows me to keep Smith and trade Duursma

    Cheers, M.


  9. I was guilty of trading Fyfe out during his concussion spell. Traded him for Sloane and while Rory has been good, it really was a bad move and a waste of a trade.



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