Underpricer – DEF#2 – Tom Doedee

Written by allsaints on February 14 2020

Tom DOEDEE (ADE), $273,700, BE: 50.4

Age: 23yrs

Games: 21

2020 Season: 3rd (but played less than half a game last year)

Draft Pick: Rd1 Pick 17

SC history (2019-18): 56, 82.2

SC % ownership 29.6%

Tom was a draft bolter when recruited in 2015 with a reputation for being the best one-on-one defender in the TAC Cup.  After a super-impressive couple of years in the SANFL as an intercept/rebounder, he didn’t disappoint in his debut AFL season, being one of the top two points accumulators and cash generating rookies of 2018.  He then scored 56pts in the opening quarter and a half (27%TOG) against HAW in Rd1 last year, before a cruel ACL, sadly brought his season to a crashing halt.

 

What do we need?

We basically need him to average 71 in 2020, staying on the park until at least Rd7 to be a good safe pick.

 

Positives:

Was back training earlier than even the rookies and 1st and 2nd years this pre-season and is training well by all accounts.  ADE’s backline was painful to watch last year as they struggled, ‘crab-like’ across their defensive 50 for much of the season.  Tom was badly missed in my book.  Given his age and ability, I think a 14% decrease in output on his first year in the AFL system (with now three full pre-seasons under his belt) is not too much to ask.  He has a very SC-friendly game with serious intercept numbers and excellent efficiency.  He and Brodie SMITH have joined the Crows’ leadership group for 2020.

Negatives:

A new coach, ravings at WestLakes about one Fischer McAsey (rookie) and the departure of KEATH to the Doggies, raise issues of uncertainty around Tom’s role in the new look Crows in 2020.

Let’s have a look what happens if he averages 71 in 2020?!

If he can play 8 games and average 71, you SHOULD be able to pick up a ‘Fallen Premium’ and a bubble rookie, with a 1UP/1DOWN trade.

This will be the first time you’ve seen the above table so I should explain.  There are two ways an underpricer (who is not a keeper) can generate value.

First, the money they make because they were underpriced (like a rookie).  Tom should make $75,600 by Rd 8 if he averages 71, BUT

Second, he will also generate critical SC pts value as you will have one less rookie on-field.  That has a $ value (far right).  The aggregated value is therefore the cash generated AND the pts value, which combines for a total of $122,290.

Now, the reason this IS extra value, is that by Rd8 Doedee can be sold for $353,400.  A $123,900 rookie averaging 60 will only be worth $269,700 at the same point in time.  The net positive benefit of this is your choice.  You can either upgrade earlier so you’re ahead of the competition (the sooner you can start upgrading, the accumulative effect is compounded by the number of rounds remaining for the season multiplied by the extra points on-field every week!).  This is HUGE.  Alternatively, you can trade at the same time as your rookie and have an extra $83,700 to spend on your upgrade target.  Both have significant and largely unmeasured or unconsidered value.

 

VERDICT:

IF he gets the intercept role, I’ll be locking him in.  I’ll expect him to average 75-85 if he does.  He is currently in my side, but the final decision will be based on the Marsh Series and ADE line-up for Rd1.

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10 thoughts on “Underpricer – DEF#2 – Tom Doedee”

  1. Might be tempted to throw into the negatives column “the uncertainty of a successful ACL return”….

    Having said that, he’s in my team ATM.

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    1. Apparently he’s had a lot of (mental) support from Brodie SMITH, who successfully returned from a similar injury. Always a concern of course, but age and strength have me feeling positive about him.

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      1. Thanks Allsaints. He has never left my side. He is a real pro with top attitude and I expect him to average 71 or more. Your article is nicely reassuring me.

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      2. Gidday AS, currently not in my team atm as plan to start 4 keepers in DEF.
        Do you think the reports that Gibbs may play behind the ball with effect Doedee & Laird.?
        Keep up the good articles.

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        1. It’s hard to know at this point. Have too many questions around Nicks’ set-up.

          Is Gibbs gonna play deep or shallower to cut off entries and as part of the transition/scoring chain. My guess is that he won’t effect either (too much) and less so Laird, who tends to be much deeper as first possession getter/distributor.

          All guesswork right now. All should become clearer over the next few weeks.

          These pieces are more about what an underpriced players NEEDS to average to be a successful pick, rather than whether they will or not. We have to make our own judgments.

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  2. might pay to remember he wasn’t playing some loose intercept role in his debut year, he played tight on his man just read the play really well & his possessions were mostly effective.

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