Underpricer – DEF#3 – Dylan Roberton

Written by allsaints on February 15 2020

Dylan ROBERTON (STK), $260,400, BE: 47.95

Age: 28yrs 8mths

Games: 128

2020 Season: 10th (but missed last year)

Draft Pick: Rd3 Pick 49

SC history (2018-10): 68.5, 92.6, 76.4, 90.6, 49.7, 75 …

SC % ownership 25.3%

Dylan was a gun off half-back before he went down at Kardinia Park early in 2018 with heart issues.  He was averaging 79.7 for the season up until that injury-effected score.  It’s been a long road back since.  Complaining of heart issues again after the Doggies game in last year’s pre-season JLT series.  By all accounts he is tracking well for a Rd1 return, though any decision on that will still be dictated by the medical staff.  He played a full intra-club game earlier this week and pulled up fine.  He is expected to play this coming week against HAW in STK’s first Marsh Series game and all going well, is scheduled to play one more before the season starts.

What’s not to like?

What do we need?

We basically need him to average 71.4 in 2020, staying on the park until at least Rd8 to be a good safe pick.

Positives:

If all goes well, even at 28 and with 21 mths out of first team football, he should be able to pull it off.  Has been mooted by Ratts that he will play off a half-back flank and on the wing in 2020.

Negatives:

With heart issues, absolutely no risks will be taken; you’d think his TOG will be managed, especially early.  Ben LONG is killing it off a HBF this pre-season, tearing Dan Butler a new one, making numerous line-breaking runs and displaying elite decision-making for a BOG performance two days ago.  Things may be changing under Ratts.  Callum Wilkie has also been super-impressive and both Geary and Hill sat out the practice match (niggles only) with both expected to line up against HAW next week.

Let’s have a look what happens if he averages 71.4 in 2020?!

If he can play 8 games and average 71.4, you’ll be making decent cash and SHOULD be able to pick up a ‘Fallen Premium’ and a bubble rookie, with a 1UP/1DOWN trade.

VERDICT:

Competition for a back-six spot is much fiercer than it was two years ago.  IF he’s named Rd1 though, we’ll likely be locking him in.  He is currently in my side, but my final decision will be based on the Marsh Series and Rd1 teams.

Next week, we’ll be looking at a couple of other DEFs in a shorter format, before moving on to FWDs, with dpp DEF/FWDs covered in that batch.

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12 thoughts on “Underpricer – DEF#3 – Dylan Roberton”

  1. Good job AS. I don’t have him in my side yet until the Marsh series is over and I see what we’ll get. Interesting what you say about Ben Long. Similar price, is he worth a punt? Cheers….M

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    1. I’ll be going to watch this week. Ratts tried Long in the back-line in quarters last two games last year. He liked what he saw. Has been training with the backs ALL pre-season and everyone’s pumped. Could he be the one? It’s always one from outside the square … innit!

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        1. I heard different but yep, Ratts rates him massively. It looks like he’s gonna be given a free read-play role to attack shallow entires like a rabid dog and rebound. Perfect for SC … playing a contested back-half running role with FWD status. If he continues to impress the way he is, I’m starting him.

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  2. Good one AS. I have him in my side and he’ll stay there bar omission R1. His heart is a known and treatable issue so I am willing to take the risk

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  3. Great article thanks. Wish I knew about this site before I wasted most of January reading plagiarised articles and absolute idiocy at the reynolds place

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  4. Also I think that like was mentioned with Docherty the game plan and style of play will have changed a lot since he last played. Richo’s style of play suited him racking up seagull possessions and he was often playing in a backline with 1 or 2 loose

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  5. Hey Allsaints fantastic write ups. I just want to add my two cents and get your thoughts. The majority of these underpriced players have significant injury risk attached. For the Roberton example it’s all well and good if he averages 71.4 up to Rd 8 and then gets injured however it’s just as likely (if not more) he gets injured at the beginning of a game. Say he averages 71.4 for the first 7 rounds then gets injured in Rd 8 and scores 10 his price drops dramatically and greatly devalues the pick. From the article it comes across that 71.4 is the pass mark. If this was the case every man and his dog should be picking Roberton because I *think* Roberton could average this in his sleep. It’s hard to put a $ value on injury risk but I would expect the par score to be more around 80-85 mark. So for him to be selected in my team I must *think* whether he could average this number instead.
    It’s really a risk/reward weigh up. He could not even start the year but he could play every game and blitz it. I hope for his sake (and yours Allsaints) he does.
    P.s. I have Roberton in my team

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    1. Great point(s). The key is to remain objective, first in assessing the risks before taking the plunge, and second when it comes to trading them. Set your targets and stick to them.

      Last season with Darcy Moore was a classic example. After he banged out a couple of tons straight, he had already massively over delivered against my pre-season expectations so I should have traded him then. But I got greedy didn’t I? He had a BE of 23 I think so I thought I’ll hold another week and grab the extra cash and if he does it again, I’ll keep him longer. He went down early of course scoring 14pts, ruined my weekly score, and went backwards in price!

      You pick the lower-priced ones for onfield points and a cash grab. Once they’ve delivered, don’t get sentimental. Upgrade and be done!

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      1. Sound advice As…why wait for a cow to give you an extra $20k just because he has a low be…..give me a bubble boy who may make $100k any time.

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