Underpricer – FWD#1 – Stephen Hill

Written by allsaints on February 18 2020

Stephen HILL (FRE) DEF/FWD, $190,600, BE: 35.1

Age: 29yrs 10mths

Games: 206

2020 Season: 12th

Draft Pick: Rd1 Pick 3

SC history (2019-12): 39, 71.7, 80.4, 89.8, 95.9, 96.1, 85.9, 80.8 …

SC % ownership: 54.7%

We all know who he is and we all know what he’s been through with his quad injury over the last two years but … he feels he has given it the necessary time out of the game to heal properly and has not missed a beat this pre-season.  He even played the required minutes of him in match sim last week; playing off HB (selling candy), on a wing (hitting Lobb on the lead to goal) and at HF flank (kicking a goal himself).

He will be playing frogger come the early rounds of 2020 and prolonged or chronic soft-tissue injuries will eventually catch up with you again.  Physiologically that has to be true.  So he’s a risk?!  Almost certainly.  But over half of SuperCoachers currently have him in their side.  Are you going to follow the herd, or back against in the hope it all goes belly-up?

Over the Hill?!

What do we need?

Am gonna look at two different scenarios.  First, he plays injury-free and averages 61.5 …

Now let’s see what happens if he averages 71.7 …

He should average more than this over his first five-six games if he can stay on the park, based on his history and taking his frogger status into consideration.

 

Positives:

Big risk-reward, but he’s only premium rookie-priced, has DEF/FWD status and we likely only need him to play six games to do a job for us.  Freo will want his leadership, mature-head and elite skills out on the park as they continue to build their young and talented list.

Negatives:

Age and injury have already caught up with him.  It could all go very wrong and early.

 

VERDICT:

If he gets through the Marsh Series and is named Rd1, I’m likely getting on the bus to the Hill.  Worst-case, he goes down early and you downgrade him to the best rookie you missed.  If you have the DPP switch in your side, that will mean you can pick the best DEF or FWD rookie that you missed in a correction trade.  Little to lose … lots to gain.

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6 thoughts on “Underpricer – FWD#1 – Stephen Hill”

  1. TU: Hill
    TD: Bonar

    Been tossing up between these two a lot, would love to see thumbs on which one would you have in your forward line

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    1. If Hill is fit, you know what you’re going to get from him. Bonar is much more of an unknown in terms of scoring at this stage. Hill is the safer choice… for now

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  2. Thanks Sainter

    Playing frogger or not, Hill is a gift this year.
    He is a super skillfull player, and doesn’t need too many touches to score well. He should average 7o + if he lines up at H/F
    I think if he goes down back , 80+ is not out of the question.

    If he gets me to the Byes, I will be super stoked.

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