Underpricer – FWD#2 – Devon Smith

Written by allsaints on February 18 2020

Devon SMITH (ESS) MID/FWD, $335,800, BE: 61.84

Age: 26yrs 9mths

Games: 138

2020 Season: 9th

Draft Pick: Rd1 Pick 14

SC history (2019-12): 68.7, 97.9, 79.9, 81.8, 89, 91.2, 70, 63.4

SC % ownership: 48.7%

Devon Smith is currently enjoying his fullest pre-season in five years and feels he is moving better than he has in that whole time.  He had surgery after Rd8 last year on his PCL and has been to the US as part of his recovery program to see the same guy (Bill Knowles) who has also put together recovery programs for Patton, Docherty and Ward in the last 12 months.  All are currently travelling well, with Ward a little behind the others.

Devon Smith has also stated in this off-season that he ‘expects’ to return to the same sort of MID/FWD time ratios that he had in 2018 (when he averaged 97.9).  Heppell, Stringer and others have all expressed how impressed they are with his pre-season to date.  Expected to play throughout the Marsh Series, we’ll be keeping a keen eye on him for role and movability.  He’s 26 so should be coming into his prime for SC output.  While a full pre-season may not mean a return to 2018 levels, with a PCL (rather than ACL) and a full recovery, we might not expect him to be far off it.

What do we need?

Ideally, we want him to become a keeper but he doesn’t have to, to be a worthwhile pick.  If he averages just 86.3 …

Because of his starting price, it is his on-field points that we are after; the ‘nominal’ cash-gain is an added bonus.

 

Positives:

Given the positive news coming out of Windy Hill, I’m fairly confident he will get sufficient midfield time to safely average the above.  If he averages significantly more than that, then you likely have yourself a keeper for under $340k.  If he doesn’t, you’ll be able to safely start upgrading as early as Rd6 with two trades due to his relatively high sale-price.  As I’ve tried to explain before, upgrading early adds a significant, compounded points value to your overall score for the year.

Negatives:

If he doesn’t work out for any reason, his price point could leave you in no-man’s-land; you might as well book a holiday in Devon and enjoy the English summer, leaving footy, winter and your SC-season behind.  He and ESS can say all the positive things they like, but we should wait to see the action over the next few weeks before diving in.

 

Devon. A beautiful county in southern England.

 

VERDICT:

You’ll want to be pretty confident he can average over 86 for at least six weeks if you’re backing him in.  I likely will, but will be looking for further evidence through the Marsh Series and beyond, before I do.

 

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22 thoughts on “Underpricer – FWD#2 – Devon Smith”

  1. He’s the same case as Brodie Smith last year. Had the potential to average 95. Will most likely average 85-90 and get to 470k. Personally I’d rather an Uber Premium and a rookie rather than Dev and a Premo.

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    1. Based on nothing other than the miserable bunch of forwards we’ve been given to choose from this year, I reckon 90+ will be enough to finish as a top 8 forward.

      I’m less worried about his scoring and more worried about durability. If he could somehow come with a guarantee that he would play 20+ games this year, it would be a very easy selection.

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      1. I know what you mean about the apparent dearth of premo fwds Chillo, but I reckon 90 for top 8 is a bit low. There are always blokes that pop up out of nowhere (Marshall and to a lesser extent Boak last year), so I’d be hoping for minimum 95 for any ‘keeper’ I’m starting.

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        1. Agree 95 is probably the keeper mark. But if you paid $335k for someone who averages say 88-92 with dpp it’s certainly a luxury trade at the end rather than a disaster.

          More likely he ends up a keeper, at worst floating F7/M9.

          And if he does better than that, which is a possibility, he’s probably a keeper given the poor forward options this season.

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    2. TR, an uber prem and rookie….if you mean a fwd uber thats say 550 plus 120 = 670k. Dev and a premo is 340 plus 550 = 890k !!
      Dev plus extra rookie looks the go !!!

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    3. A fwd line uber premium? Smith willbe close anyway.

      If you mean a uber premium somewhere else, then you would be playing four rookies in the fwd line and bleed points.

      One or two midprice gamblesbis what its all about, otherwise you are in trouble.

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    4. Smith was a keeper for me last year did a fine job at D6

      Based on this years crap FWd premo’s i’m backing Devon should be a keeper

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  2. He’s my dpp, favourable bye, love child for 2020 !!

    Who is a better d5/6, m7/8, or f5/6 for his price and potential pts ?? Assuming he gets on the park of course.

    As As (thats tricky !!) says, a potential keeper for $340k ???

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    1. Better d5/6 at his price is easy. Dylan Roberton. But let’s be honest he’s probably D3/4 anyway.

      Other than that, certainly no mids in the mix, and forwards only Patton who I just mentioned.

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  3. F3 at the moment. Id take 90 every day which he can 100% do. The forwards are crap so if he looks good enough in Marsh games ill lock him in!

    I hate the forwards so much i just did a draft with Dev at F2!

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      1. Ive worded that wrongly AllSaints! When i say draft i mean like a new template of my classic team not an actual draft squad!

        Im going insane !

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  4. How many of these guys can we fit in the forward line ?

    I’m considering..

    Whit, Ceglar / Lynch, Steven, Smith, Bonar, S.Hill
    Rankine, E.Smith.

    I still manage 5 uber mids and G&G

    Defence is Sicily Houston Doc…

    I just don’t trust any of the other top Forwards anymore than these mid-priced guys, am I mad ?

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    1. Ceglar like Patton I see as a cheap ruck starter, moving to Fwd once Gawn is fit.

      Steven has recently been dropped by me, for Smith, due to still on the injury list worries me.

      Bonar is a recent in on the basis of playing mid, but went backwards in 2019 so is certainly a risk.

      Hill been in there a long time.

      No King? Just kicked 4 goals on Jake Carlisle in an intraclub.

      Tbh King and Rankine can easy be f5 and f6, but where do you go f7/f8 otherwise?

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