Underpricer – FWD#5 – the remains

Written by allsaints on February 22 2020

The last four FWDs we’re going to look at as we get into the Marsh Series are:

Hugh GREENWOOD (GCS) MID/FWD, $463,100, BE: 85.28

Tom J LYNCH (RIC), $388,800, BE: 71.6

Jordan DAWSON (SYD) DEF/FWD, $467,800, BE: 86.15, and

Jonathon PATTON (HAW) FWD/RUC, $337,000, BE: 62.06

In order then …

 

Hugh GREENWOOD (GCS) MID/FWD, $463,100, BE: 85.28

Age: 28yrs

Games: 51

2020 Season: 4th

Draft Pick: Rookie Draft Rd3, Pick48

SC history (2019-17): 85.3, 86, 84.6

SC % ownership: 9.6%

Needs to average at least 10 more than he ever has before.  Change of club and possible increased MID minutes may make him a decent pick; named in the guts for GCS’ first Marsh Series game against the Cats tonight.

 

VERDICT:

You’d think he HAS to become a keeper if you’re going to start him at that price.  GCS are not good at SuperCoach and there will be pressure for those MID spots, with Miller and Weller named as followers; Rowell, Brodie and Miles will all be making claims too.  If he doesn’t perform to expectations (think Miles last year), he could ruin your season.  For me there are better alternatives but let’s see how he goes in the MS first.  Likely more to gain from NOT starting him … and less risk.  He shouldn’t increase in price much even if he does go off.  Whereas if he fails and you have started him …

 

 

Tom J LYNCH (RIC), $388,800, BE: 71.6

Age: 27yrs 4mths

Games: 156

2020 Season: 10th

Draft Pick: Rd1, Pick 11

SC history (2019-13): 71.6, 78.4, 85.1, 93.2, 88.3, 83.2, 66.8 …

SC % ownership: 7.2%

Needs to average 91.6 as a minimum.  He averaged exactly 99 from Rd17 onwards, including finals last year.  A sign of things to come?!?

The last time he was fit he ave’d 93.2 across a season for the Suns.  No pre-season last year, so to produce what he did demonstrates his class and durability.  Another pre-season with one of the best sides in the comp and so used to structure and set-ups …

 

VERDICT:

Could do anything.  As a Key Position FWD he comes with the associated roller-coaster risks, but if you’re going for overall only, he could be a great pick.  Expect big improvement in 2020 but will he do enough?  Likely to go better early with those dry Autumn days and plenty of games at the ‘G.  At his price I am very tempted.  If I have the spot and the cash after the Marsh Series, I’ll be picking him to start.

 

Jordan DAWSON (SYD) DEF/FWD, $467,800, BE: 86.15

Age: 22yrs 11mths

Games: 25

2020 Season: 4th

Draft Pick: Rd4, Pick 56

SC history (2019-17): 86.2, 60, 32

SC % ownership: 7.2%

Needs to become a keeper.  To my mind, we want him to average 96+ then.  Less-owned than Greenwood.  Finally found a role off HB and a wing last year that is conducive to decent SC-scoring.  The Horse has stated in this pre-season that he’ll be off HB again, but he has proven more than once to be the Swans best utility and injuries could see him forced to play HF or a number of other roles for that matter.  That is the risk for me.

 

VERDICT:

There are risks with the magnets being shifted.  Similar to Greenwood, I don’t think NOT owning him at the start will hurt you.  If you do start him and the magnets shift, you’ll be in a lot more trouble.  He nor Greenwood are likely to increase enough to hurt you early.  Manage the risk and don’t start either.

 

 

Jonathon PATTON (HAW) FWD/RUC, $337,000, BE: 62.06

Age: 26yrs 9mths

Games: 89

2020 Season: 7th (missed all of last year)

Draft Pick: Rd1 Pick 1

SC history (2018-12): 77.6, 80.6, 64.1, 48, 62.6, 56

SC % ownership: 7.1%

ACL tragic.  All of last year missed so a decent discount applied and a move to HAW who seem to get the most out of these sorts of trades.  Looked OK against the Saints the other night kicking 3.2, but will need to average over 82 for a good few rounds for him to be a decent starting pick.

VERDICT:

While his RUC status may be tempting, I’m not convinced he can do what we’d like to be a good pick.  There are better ‘value’ options forward.

 

Moving onto the MIDs next … starting with one Tom MITCHELL!

12
0


Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom

12 thoughts on “Underpricer – FWD#5 – the remains”

  1. Don’t get me wrong I do appreciate the level of research and flow of quality information provided at this site however, It’s all very positive and touchy feely to only highlight the absolute best of a player when doing a review but if you were to employ that strategy in constructing a business prospectus you’d be facing criminal charges for deception by omission.
    Yes Lynch did ave 99 from Rnd 17 onwards inc finals in 2019 BUT he also ave only 57 from Round 7 to Round 16 and only 44.7 from rounds 9-12 (any shorter preseason influence on a KPF would be gone by rnd 7?). In his best season ever when he ave 93 for the year he a 4-game stretch from round 8-12 where he only ave 55 and a 7 game stretch from round 5-11 where he only ave 69, at almost 400k he can kill your season in 4 weeks.
    I sense another record for Thumbs Down is on the way, you guys seem to hate it when an ‘outsider’ fills in the blanks to tell the ‘whole story’. 🙂

    17

    9
    1. Personally, I like the constructive criticism, so thanks David. I looked at all the stats before writing the piece and of course, as I said, there are definite risks (eg roller-coaster scores) associated with picking a KPP. If you can mitigate those poor scores to a degree with a loophole (why I’m picking two of them in 2020) that’ll help.
      But it’s his key stats that I like. Disposals, CPs, Contested Marks, Metres Gained, Score Involvements, Inside 50s were pretty much all down in 2019 vs his career stats. The 2019 season itself shows a marked season of two halves. The back-half in some cases two or three times greater than the FH. It’s these stats that I like.
      Personally, I reckon he’ll start slightly below where he left off (RIC have always started slowly since they got to the pointy end of September) but his overall season will pick up and likely be the best he’s ever had; my opinion.

      These pieces are really Opinion pieces rather than pure stats. I’m trying to identify who I think will be a good pick in 2020 and using the stats I like to justify it. Similarly, relatively popular picks that I don’t like (eg Greenwood) I’ll use the stats to argue the case against. Being more opinionated in writing these should lead to greater discussion. Both for and against. That way, we should all end up making better decisions. That’s the idea anyway 😉

      Cheers
      AS

      15

      0
      1. I’m currently running a second loop in my forward line and taking Lynch at F3
        Hoping to pick up Darling/Cameron cheap and loop hole the pair for F6 in the back half of the season.

        2

        1
    2. Tbh David, a lot of us have been on the site for so long. I say that because over the years we have discussed every aspect of SC in depth, at length and then still argued some more.

      So when I see a warning about a key position player, I instinctively know that they’re likely to be up and down. That means there will always be a chance to pick them up later for the same price or a lot less.

      All saints is quite bullish on Lynch and I understand why. He may be about to have a career year. He’s been in and out of my team so far.

      I’m fact,. I brought him in on the cheap one year and he went pretty well. A player that has done me well before always gets another look!

      1

      0
  2. This is all good stuff. Everyone knows the perils of picking a key position player by now. For example, Lynch could spud it up in the opening rounds – but it’s also possible he kicks a bag against the Blues on opening night and then everyone will be scrambling to get him in. Swings and roundabouts….

    Great article AS.

    9

    0

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *