Underpriced Players in 2020

Written by allsaints on February 14 2020

Over the next few weeks, we’ll be looking at a list of over 40 players who are considered underpriced in 2020 for any number of reasons:

  1. Played seven or less games in 2019 so receive a price discount
  2. Have had a change in circumstance(s) that will very likely produce a net positive result
    1. New club, new coach, players leaving, change of role purported etc.
    2. Appeared to have begun breaking out late in 2019 (eg Dunkley last year)

All these players will be monitored closely over the coming weeks, particularly over the Marsh Series (with weekly reports to follow), with final recommendations being provided exclusively to the SCT community in the lead up to Rd1.

To start with, I’ve drawn up a list of who we will likely be watching.  The list will be honed over time to exclude those that don’t look like delivering on what is required and any surprising bolters might suddenly appear!  It’s a movable feast.

In a similar format to how we looked at the elite players by line, we’ve also included their last average, their price discount, what they are actually priced to average and finally what THEY WILL NEED TO AVERAGE TO BE USEFUL.  Any more will be a huge win!

Before the Marsh Series starts, I’ll be looking in more detail at the most promising by each position, highlighting what we will need to see over the pre-season proper for them to be in serious consideration for your starting 30.

If there is someone you want to look at and they DON’T appear on the below lists, please let me know and I’ll add them in.  If you want a specific player looked at in more detail, then also let me know and I’ll try and squeeze them in.

DEFs 

MIDs 

RUCs 

FWDs

You may well have looked at the ‘Needs to ave.’ column and thought ‘that doesn’t look right’; he won’t make $150k at that average.  And you’d be right, but that is because he doesn’t have to!

Either

He scores enough to become a keeper, which means you won’t need to trade them for the year so what they make is irrelevant!

Or

He will make enough cash to be at a price you can trade them EARLIER to upgrade to an elite premium (with an accompanying downgrade) AND will score enough more points than your alternative last rookie onfield (to make up the CASH-VALUE difference in points onfield).  I hope that’s not too complicated, but essentially you’re actually better off.

The sooner you can start upgrading, the net positive aggregated points you will gain to season’s end are invaluable … if you want to be competitive for overall this is critical.

Thanks for reading.  More coming soon.

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22 thoughts on “Underpriced Players in 2020”

  1. Great stuff AS.
    Doherty looks tasty but I pass on him just on ACL injury reason. 100 average is a bit stiff for me considering no player who came back after ACL bettered their ave.
    I am starting Roberton +Doedee and I also have Callum Colemans-Jones and Naish on my radar.
    Thanks , I now have a visual tool to check at Marsh series.

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    1. Not starting Doch for the same reason.

      I’m keeping an eye on CCJ as well for the Tigers, Nank seems massively underdone at the moment.

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      1. Yes I know bAps. I just consider Doedee lower risk and a step player as he is cheaper , I will trade up or down earlier and I never thought he could be keeper. Also Doedee has only one ACL injury. Docherty x 2 ACL .

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  2. alot of food/numbers there for thought Allsaints. Thanks for that.

    I forgot about CJ for the hawks, I know Clarko thinks he is a ‘ripper’.

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    1. You are about the 3rd person who is flagging CJ, Grapol. I better keep an eye on him at Marsh series. Also if he is a good intercept, would that affect Sicily scoring?

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  3. Great reading.
    I only make one team every year, you know because if you make multiple teams its cheating and all, so i normally play fairly safe and go G&R with maybe 1 or 2 underpriced options.

    I really want to go balls out this year and select as much value as i possibly can, maybe just have gawn,grundy and the most expensive mid, fwd and def – then all value and minimise as many rookies on field as possible.
    I won’t do this of course, as not having the heavy hitters in the middle or enough money making rookies just won’t make sense.

    This game, or the initial team selection is such a balancing act. These underpricer’s are the crucial ones, will be fluffing over these players for pretty much the rest of the preseason.

    Could you look at Gibbs and Cotchin?

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  4. Something also to consider with underpriced players are those premos who are also priced a little bit under – Josh Dunkley averaged 127 from round 7 on and is priced well under that. I’m not sure he’ll average that this year, but even if he doesn’t quite match his level from the end of last year you still aren’t paying well over for him.

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  5. Thanks for this. Very useful. I am definitely considering Ceglar. In terms of what he requires to score to be worthy of selecting, then I look at him in terms of the total points he brings to my team. So, if he gets used twice in the year to cover Grundy or Gawn, and I would otherwise have a donut, then I estimate he brings an extra 90 points to my team if I then bring a forward bench rookie onto the field instead of donuts. That’s about 4 point average less.

    So, if you think 95 is an acceptable average for your forward, and you think you would use him to cover 2 donuts, then he needs to average 91 to be worthy of a spot.

    At the moment, I think he’s maybe there or thereabouts.

    If you think a rookie will emerge for the rucks, then you assess Ceglar as requiring 95, which he may fall short of.

    Every year I look to start a ruck/forward for cover on this basis. Have to say that it hasn’t proved to be a good strategy. We have had rookie cover emerge and/or cover hasn’t been required. Lycett last year was holding his own as a forward until he was inexplicably dropped, but he wasn’t activated as ruck cover.

    Maybe this is the year the ruck forward will be a winning factor!

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    1. Do you trust Clarko though? He is likely to abandon the Big Boy in the backline experiment after round 3 and Ceglar could be dropped all together. Bit risky for me but it is tempting.

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  6. Roberton could average 71 in his sleep!
    If his health is good enough for St.Kilda to pick him (finger crossed it is) then it’s good enough for my team too!

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    1. Because at his starting price, to make enough money for him to be a good starting pick, he will need to become a keeper. The 98 is an informed guess (based on Top6 FWD ave’s of the last six years) as to what will likely be construed a keeper average. It might be less than that in 2020.

      So really, if you’d be happy with 95 at F6, it’s 95. But whatever you’d be happy with, you really want him to become a keeper. The good news is that McEvoy played tall DEF at last evening’s intra-club 🙂

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      1. I suspect McEvoy might just take the centre tap then push back. So Cegler is left to do the around the taps in the rest of the grounds.

        Biggest concern about Ceglar is he durability.

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      2. Ok thanks I was just wondering why he was higher than Dawson despite costing less but yes either of them just need to average the what a F6 keeper needs to which I suspect will be less than year. I guess Ceglar could be used as a F7/R3 as well if averages like 85-90

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  7. Good write up!
    Why is no one talking about watts? Surely he presents value.

    Love to see Ebert added to the list along with Aaron vandeBerg and Lynch

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  8. AS, great thought-provoking insights as usual.

    I think Rhylee West is FWD only. Makes him even more interesting. If he gets game time. I’d prefer you left him out by the way … wink, wink, say no more

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