Value Picks Review – Round 1, 2020

Written by allsaints on March 24 2020

Hey all

So the format will be by line and by popularity from your votes last week.  Now that the spreadsheets are set up it shouldn’t take too long to update.  Especially if we have two months between each Round!  If you want a particular player added, then please let me know.  I will warn you if I am considering culling any and you can express your concerns in the comments.

Please also note that these BEs are (in some cases ‘very’) different from what the SuperCoach App or site are saying.  This is because they stated prior to the season that BEs would be based on players scoring their PTA scores prior to their Rd1 actual score, but they have now based the 3RdAve. on their Rd1 score only.  Whilst it hasn’t been confirmed, I am almost certain that this is a glitch in their system as it would lead to astronomic price changes at the end of Rd2.  Both positive and negative.  I am sure that they will amend the error soon in their system, or they will simply have to give everyone unlimited trades before Rd2 as this is effectively a massive change in their stated ‘Rules of the Game’ which in turn had serious implications on what strategies SuperCoaches would have adopted prior to Rd1.

Enough about that, let’s get into it.

DEFs

DOCHERTY looked superb.  Get him in if you haven’t already.  I didn’t get to see Friday night’s game, but it seems HOWE continued his impressive pre-season form; great call Ben@SCT.  ROBERTON played a lockdown role for the Saints.  Ouch and it is Ben LONG who looks like he’s going to get all those points off STK’s half-back!  Brodie SMITH missed an entire quarter but also appeared to be playing half-forward rather than on a wing … yuck!  My Jayden SHORT pick now doesn’t look so good with such a long delay now; Bachar HOULI will likely be back for Rd2 🙁

The rest?  Meh.

MIDs

Don’t pick mid-priced MIDs!  Though Andrew McGRATH looked excellent, I fear for his role once HEPPELL is back, and he very likely will be for Rd2.  If you started either of the other two, you are probably better holding onto them as we should expect a degree of improvement and eventual (however small) price increases.  If you don’t have other corrections to make tho’ …

RUCs

Well, well, well.  I picked the one who was underwhelming.  Idiot!  Hats off to those who started Jacobs and/or Naismith.  Kapow!

FWDs

Devon SMITH could and should have scored more I think.  BRAYSHAW is coming back from minor foot surgery following Marsh2 and the break should do him the world of good.  His PPM rate was decent albeit his TOG% appeared to be managed as he recovers.  I’m holding.  PETRACCA and GREENWOOD delivered on expectations and some.  Tom J LYNCH could be a rocky ride, but seems to score well in big games.  Next up Collingwood who are great defensively but he could do anything and will probably go bang soon.

CEGLAR and FORT were both excellent.  About the only two I did get right!

MACPHERSON seemed to play outside when we wanted him having significant inside minutes.  We know he has a low floor, but has a huge ceiling too.  Am sure people have bigger fish to fry.

Notable absentees

The following players have either carried on where they left off, have SC-friendly roles, present value or a combination of the three.

DEFs:  Darcy BYRNE-JONES, Hayden CROZIER, Adam SAAD and Wayne MILERA

MIDs: Jack VINEY, Oliver FLORENT and Jack STEELE 😉

FWDs: Ben LONG, Connor ROZEE, Jack MARTIN and Chad WINGARD

Think that’s all for now folks!

10
0


Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom

11 thoughts on “Value Picks Review – Round 1, 2020”

  1. Hey AS, can you please post the equation you use to calculate how much $$ a player will make after each round, averaging a specific amount?

    1

    0
    1. Player x

      the equation is:

      (current price * 0.75) + (3Rd.ave * 0.25 * latest magic number)

      The 3RdAve. figure includes their latest score. Of course, after only two games they will be using their PTA (priced to ave. score) for a non-existent Rd0.

      The magic number will change every week due to price deflation and I have based these on the last two years worth of data to glean an est’d magic number for each Rd and they are as follows (Rd / Magic Number):

      2 / 5430.19
      3 / 5326.56
      4 / 5258.83
      5 / 5218.53
      6 / 5183.54
      7 / 5149.59
      8 / 5110.56
      9 / 5076.91
      10 / 5055.31
      11 / 5029.75

      They will be wrong, but close to accurate for planning.

      Let’s do a real life example. Marlion PICKETT

      Marlion PICKETT is Priced to Average (PTA) = 123900 / 5430.19 = 22.82

      Rd0 Score = 22.82
      Rd1 Score =94
      Rd2 Score = 80* (est’d)
      ==> His 3RdAve. would therefore be 65.607

      So his Price after Rd 3 would then be:
      (123900 * 0.75) + (65.607 * 0.25 * 5326.56)
      = 92925 + 87364.46 = 180289.46 = $180 300

      Hope that helps 😉

      5

      0
      1. Thanks AS, did it help? Yes and no. Yes, your post explained exactly how to calculate $$ any player will make at a specific round and no that I can now see how much strife I’m in lol

        4

        0
  2. Wow All Saints, I appreciate the dedication.

    Great to have the numbers, we have plenty of time to ponder.
    The first round has shown how champion data is going to score this year and there are going to be few new favourites. Also we had a sneak peak on how coaches actually wanted to set up play in the season proper.
    My frustration is that we picked many players based on R1 and R2 availability and now with the long break, most injured will come back, and The job security of many of our rookies /mid prices could get affected.
    For me I believe that Steven And Houli will come to the picture and Titch has proven he is back.
    In the meantime I have already done 2 corrective rage trades of Brayshaw and Macpherson , reversing to Heeney and Fort..
    TU : Luxury trade . Hold on . They will come good
    TD: Just do it
    Comments and suggestions

    3

    2
  3. I think you are either 1/2 right (optimism) or 1/2 wrong (pessimism).
    I was going to trade Brayshaw, but I’m not so sure now.
    We now can view Steven then maybe decide, and double check Smith.
    ……and re assess Heeney and Fort.
    Oh and is everyone else wiping their keypads in down/frustration time LOL

    2

    0
  4. Would dumping Dunkley for Viney (yes something I don’t want to do) in order to replace Roberton with Howe be a worthwhile move? TU
    Only other move would be to replace Roberton with Doedee. TD

    Need to fix Roberton when footy returns.

    Thanks.

    2

    1
    1. Dunkly had a bad game. But he scored 3-4 150+ scores last season after round 8. I’d find money elsewhere just incase.

      0

      0
    2. Mick,

      ATM, I have Zuthrie and Dunkley for Viney and Howe.
      Still have Roberton and Andy Brayshaw under consideration.
      If Zuthrie does play next game (and Long) I will trade Roberton, and then reassess $$$.

      0

      0
  5. Thanks guys. Tough decision as I don’t want to lose a premo but I don’t see other ways I can fix Roberton. Saints will be more than happy for him to be solid in defence with not as much running with less possessions. Just him getting through a season will be an achievement.

    1

    0

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *