What it takes to win

Written by Father Dougal on January 26 2016

Silly father, you need more points than everybody else!

Ok, that’s true, but not exactly helpful. If you don’t have a clear idea of what you need to win, then coming up with a plan and making good decisions to implement that plan is a lot harder. My rather informal “pick all the best players” plan, while not wrong, doesn’t give me any idea how to tell who the best players are.

Silly father, they score the most points!

Well, not exactly. You need more than one kind of best player. Best cow, best value, and best points, and probably more bests I haven’t thought of. You need the players best suited to get you to your goal. Which is score….a lot of points….but what’s a lot….?

Silly father, you put houses on a lot!

Ok, that’s true, but in terms of winning Supercoach:

Rank     Total      Average

1           52481    2,281.8
10         52187    2,269.0
100       51563    2,241.9
1000      50803   2,208.8
10000   49409    2,148.2
50005   46744    2,032.3

Last year the winner scored 52481 points! Yikes. Ok, so I am going to target 52,501 points – a number both bigger than last year’s winner by a bit, and that happens to fit neatly into some later calculations. If having a not-round 52500 bothers you feel free to White-Out your screen and write over the 1 with a 0 as needed. (Supercoachtalk.com and its management are not responsible for any damage to your screens that may occur.)

A minor point that I initially forgot, causing me to recalculate some stuff, are the byes. With the byes, while you do need to average 2,282.66/round, you are going to get that by scoring more in the twenty normal rounds to make up for the lower scores from the three bye rounds.

Time for some math. Those of you with White-Out on your monitors might want to skip this bit…..

We get 22 players in a normal round. One counts twice, so 23*20=460. We get 18 players in a bye round with one counting twice, so 3*19=57. Add 57 to 460 and we get 517.  What is 517?  Silly father, it’s one more than 516! Right, but in this context it is the number we divide 52501 into to get the number of points we need from each player each week to get to 52501, which is 101.55. We then can multiply that by the number of players each week to find out what you need to average in both the regular and bye weeks to get to 52501.

23 * 101.55 = 2336, and 19 * 101.55 = 1929.

20 * 2336 = 46720 and 3 * 1929 = 5787, which added to 46720 = 52507….Bleeping rounding….okay, well, 3 * 1927 = 5781 which added to 46720 = 52501.  Rounding error gets swept under the rug. With other things. I advise you to never look under my rug.

So, to get to a winning total, you need to average 2336 every round, except for the byes when you need 1927. Ack! Let’s just say that’s a lot more than I managed last season; 2198 normal and 1802 in the byes as it happens, 49366 total. A nice 3135 points short of this season’s target. A mere, gulp, 136ish points a week difference.

Knowing that early season scores are going to be lower than late season scores I worked up week by week score targets that add up to 52501.

1: 2150
2: 2150
3: 2200
4: 2200
5: 2250
6: 2250
7: 2300
8: 2300
9: 2300
10: 2350
11: 2350
12: 2350
13: 1950
14: 1950
15: 1950
16: 2400
17: 2400
18: 2400
19: 2450
20: 2450
21: 2500
22: 2500
23: 2401

Knowing how messed up the last round can be, I dropped the goal a little there.

That’s a lot of high scores. But, what else would you expect from a #1 ranked team? Now that we have a clear idea of where we want to get, how to get there….I’m still working on that…..

 

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Author: Father Dougal

First time player, new to both Supercoach and the AFL. Having fun though! Now a second time player. Let's see if I learned anything! Oh, I learned a little. Now a third year player and running out of excuses.



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15 thoughts on “What it takes to win”

  1. Great stuff Father D. Now I know how far behind the pro’s I really am. I may need to rethink my team so that I don’t fall too far behind in the early rounds, while building my cash for the last half of the season.

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  2. The first thing you need to win is …luck.
    Lucky the players you pick get a game , are not injured , are in a position to accumulate points and not a KP defender ie blocker like Merrett, lucky they dont get subbed ( in the past ) , lucky they dont get rested when their team plays a weaker side, lucky they get a massive amount of points when they kick a crucial goal to win a game or close to it , lucky the point scoring system is unbalanced ( yes it confuses many on how some players score massive amounts compared to others ) and that is just the beginning of it all

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