Your Starting Squad 2014 – The Forwards

Written by Motts on August 21 2013

The Forward line is typically where we’ve seen the most DPP changes over the years. Nonetheless, give me your starting selections for next year.

Include anyone you think may get the magical M/F DPP status bestowed upon them.

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25 thoughts on “Your Starting Squad 2014 – The Forwards”

  1. Mayne and Dangerfield are as close to a lock as they can be at this early stage.

    As for any other forwards, there are none off the top of my head I can choose confidently.

    You’d say Wingard is highly likely to become a MID/FWD, I assume he will be a popular pick.

    Also, a healthy Nic Nat will be a welcome inclusion to most people’s forward line (given he retains his DPP status).

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  2. Assuming we’ll lose Stevie J and Rockliff to the midfield and Walker to defence. There goes half my fwd line!

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  3. Once again, without antisipating DPP changes I will be looking at:

    L.Henderson – Will be an interesting selection if he retains his DPP. Still capable of throwing out some dirty scores, but has uped his fantasy output by 20 points this year and will turn 24 over summer. He is a good age, Mick likes him, and typically Mick Malthouse coached teams get dramatically better in after he’s had a season with them. It wouldn’t suprise me if he averaged +95 next year. My only major concern is durability.

    J.Hogan – If he is playing then we will want him. Showed a bit in the preseason and kicked 39 goals in the VFL this year before bone bruising ended his season.

    G.Rohan – will have to watch this kid in the preseason. Big wraps on him, if the price is right, then he could make the cut.

    A.Christensen & S.Motlop – another year goes by and I’m impressed again at Geelong’s ability to turn out more future star half-forward midfield types. Christensen uped his average by 13 points to 92, Motlop uped his by 23 points to 85. Both these guys are playing more games, kicking more goals and getting more time in the middle. I expect them both to be priced around the 400k-450k mark, but these guys will continue to get more time in the middle, are both turning 23 and should both increase there SC output next season by a further 8-15 points.

    Rockliff – if he keeps his DPP he will be a lock. The kid keeps showing us that he loves to go through the middle, only concern will be a coach that likes him spending more time forward. SAFE

    Zorko – Everyone has heard of second year blues, he just didn’t think that someone that was so good would fall to them. Expect this guy to have adjusted and build on the blocks that he has built this season. Has shown that he is durable, just needs to have a big preseason. RISK

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  4. Dangefield, Cameron, Wingrad, Buddy (should be priced 450k we all know what he’s capable), Nic nat, Daisey, Hogan, Boyd,

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  5. As a number have said, DPP changes are the key. Dangerfield, for example, I think deserves DPP status again, but I’m highly sceptical as to whether VS will give it to him. If he were to regain it then he would be in my side straight away, but I’m assuming he isn’t getting it. I am also concerned that Martin will lose his DPP status and therefore I have left him out of my calculations.

    If you look at the top 11 averaging forwards from this season, it will be very interesting to see how many of them are there next season. S Johnson, Rockliff and Walker are almost certain to lose forward eligibility. There is also a chance that Bartel and Martin lose it too. Boomer will be turning 36, Cox 33, Chapman 32, Petrie and Riewoldt 31. That’s a whole lot of old men in footballing terms. It leaves Roughead as the only one without a question mark and he is currently the Coleman leader (tied) and that hasn’t even translated into a 100 average!

    The forward line is the place that I traditionally take the most risks and I see that happening again in 2014.

    F1: Nic Naitanui

    I’m not going to go as far as Gerard Healy does (honestly, there has to be a restraining order coming some time in the near future), but Nic Nat is one of my favourites. I am a huge fan of players who don’t need to collect many touches to score well. It means that most weeks they will score around the 100 mark and then those half-dozen or so times that they do collect a lot of the pill, they bang out a huge score. If the rolling lockout continues, he is the perfect vice-captain option because of his ability to knock up scores such as 142, 148, 153, 163, 164 and 185, all of which he has hit in his last 23 games. Just to clarify that, including vest and injury depressed scores, he is knocking up a 140+ once every four games. Not many non midfielders can do that (actually, none come to mind instantly, but happy to be corrected if you can think of someone)! He ran up six straight tons before injuries started to take hold this season and he dipped below 100 five times all of last season (and two of them were 94). If he is looking fit pre-season, then welcome to my side, sir.

    F2: Lance Franklin

    First and foremost, this selection is predicated on him not leaving Hawthorn. If he were to head north, then the following logic is distorted as another major element has changed from the comparison that I’m drawing and you have to reassess his potential. If he does stay then you have to remember that SC is a game of numbers, so you have to ignore your personal displeasure as to how he has played this year. I’m going to make a comparison to Travis Cloke because I think that they are in very similar situations, one year apart. Both key forwards, in good sides, who had a year long contract dispute that has clearly been a hindrance on their performances. In the three season around his contract year (two years before and one year after), Cloke averaged 94.6. In the year that he was distracted he averaged 81.2. That represents a 14% scoring dip. In the three seasons prior to this, Franklin has averaged 111.2. This year, only 90.5. A 19% dip in his scoring. Following a contract extension, Cloke has rebounded to have his second highest averaging season, at 94.9, just above the three year average. If Franklin follows that progression, then he averages over 110 next year. The parallels are significant, heck they were even born five weeks apart. He may have annoyed you all season, but if he stay with the Hawks, get him. I should also mention that he misses three to six games a season, so be ready for that to annoy you again in 2014.

    F3: Dale Thomas

    The re-injury of his ankle could be a blessing in disguise. With no hope of a 2013 return, he can just focus on getting right for next season. As with Naitanui, this pick is predicated on a good pre-season. Assuming that he gets through the summer, then you just have to look at the numbers to see why you should select him. He will likely get some form of discount as he has only played five games this season. That discount will be on top of an average of only 79.6 (helped by a vested induced 24), so there is a good chance you will pick him up for an average of around 70. His three previous seasons he averaged 94, 109 and 96. If he is over his injury, then worst case scenario is they he averages mid-high 90s and sits at F6/F7 and allows DPP flexibility. Best case, he regain the form that had some pundits suggesting that he may be the best player in the game and he leads the way in forward scoring averages. He turns 27 during next season, so he should be right in his prime. The risk/reward is pretty well stacked I think.

    F4: Matthew Pavlich

    He smashes one of my major rules: Don’t get ageing men with injury concerns. The problem is, he will be at such a tempting price. Fremantle will continue to be really good next year. The ball will be in their forward-line a lot and Pavlich scores best (against the league trend) when he is a pure forward. He will spend all of next season as a 32 year old, but with a strong pre-season I think he can make it through. Before this year he has been incredibly durable, missing no more than three games in any season of his entire career. Just to reiterate, that means he played 253 of a possible 264 games in his first twelve years, including a stretch of six consecutive 22 game seasons. This is the first season he has ever averaged below 99.3 and it has dipped down to 80. He is a risk due to his age, but if he runs through the pre-season well, then I think that he is worth it.

    F5: Taylor Walker

    He is definitely an injury and suspension risk, and I don’t expect him to be a keeper, but he will be too cheap to ignore. He will be a strong chance for a discount as he has only appeared five times for the Crows in 2013. He has also only averaged 69.4 (including being vested twice). Last year he broke out to average 99.6 and looked scarily good at times. He will likely have the odd shocker (he had a 24 and a 39 last season), but these are counterbalanced by the odd huge game (135 and 154). He only did a PCL, rather than ACL, so he should be able to complete a full pre-season, making him a very strong chance to grace my 2014 team.

    F6 and F7: Rookies, hopefully mature-aged players who run through the midfield. Obviously I have no idea who these guys are yet, but they will emerge over the pre-season as they always do.

    F8: Jesse Hogan

    I’ve said it on this site earlier and I will say it again: Don’t expect a lot from Hogan next year. He is a beast at the lower levels, but he is a kid, playing in a very poor side, as a key forward. He will average a maximum of 60, but at least he will play most weeks and hopefully he can string together a couple of good games so that he rises to a good trade-out price. The reason that I say maximum 60, is history. In terms of first SC seasons: Franklin 59, Daniher 55, Roughead 54, Cloke 53, Tippett 52, Hawkins 51, Walker 46, J Riewoldt 40 and JJ Kennedy 25. Big key forwards take time, so just be happy he is on the park and don’t give him too much grief when he is beaten by seasoned key defenders and pumps out some 30s for you. It will happen, so just be aware of it.

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  6. Although Dangerfield deserves dpp I hope he doesn’t get it. If he does he will be a lock in everyones team. If he’s mid only then there will be a lot more variety in the forward lines which makes for a more interesting comp.

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  7. Alot will depend on the DPP status handed out for the new season. Key forwards just don’t go large all that often. Their consistency is more erratic than players who get more midfield time. 8 of the top 10 highest scoring forwards have DPP status. If I was forced to name a few for next year, I’d probably go with Rockliff, Stevie J and Walker. But as discussed above, their status could easily change so it’s all up in the air at this stage………

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  8. Wingard will be a lockin if dpp m/f. If bartel and dixon are dpp fwd/def I will have one of them fwd.

    Tippett will be in consideration. So too Daniher if Belchambers goes.

    I think mitch clark should be a good price too.

    If Jesse White continues his form he may be worth a look too.

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  9. Dieter it is not going to help Cameron averaged 72 for the year, 46 in his last three.

    The ball will not be up there, if he was a midfield player different story. GWS middies will only average a decent score not the forwards. Take Gold Coast there best Midfield and Backs this year will be a similar story.

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