2014 Position Previews

Written by Motts on December 10 2013

Don Cottagers has been toiling away providing information on what positions blokes will be playing in next year so I’m giving him his own post.

Keep up the great work, mate.

 

Official 2014 AFL fantasy sports news:

– Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell and Jarrad McVeigh have ALL been confirmed as D/M DPPs for next season.

Whilst Hodge, who has only had two 20-game seasons in the last six years, will be a touch-and-go call for starting squads, the other two are going to be next to impossible to pass on.

McVeigh has only missed six games in eight years and is coming off a 105 average after a move to lucrative defensive sweeping duties.

Mitchell may be 31 next year but he has only averaged less than 100 once in the last nine years (98.8) and he has only missed ten games of footy in eight years (of which at least a couple were restings).

– As expected by most, Brendon Goddard has (rightly) been stripped of his DPP and will be a pure M in 2014.

– The kids are going to be A LOT more expensive. Whilst the article is talking about AFL Fantasy rather than SC, the changes are transferable as both games are run by VS. In that game, Whitfield cost $183k this season whereas Boyd will be $262k in 2014! That should mean Boyd will debut at around the $285k mark in SC, which is astronomical. No prizes for guessing that VS want more viable alternatives to the ‘Guns n Rookies’ strategy that we love so much.

– Similarly, pick 77 in the draft (Johathon Marsh of the Pies) will be $135k. Last year, pick 77 was Bradley Hartman of the Cats who started (and remained as he didn’t play a game) at $102k in AFL Fantasy (and at $109k in SC). Again, if a similar percentage increase is used in SC 2014, it seems like even the cheapest kids will be costing around the $140k mark.

– Like I said, it’s an AFL Fantasy article, not SC, but if you want to check it out:http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-12-05/price-is-right-for-stevie-j

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41 thoughts on “2014 Position Previews”

  1. More Fantasy News:

    – Rhys Palmer has received M/F DPP status

    – The draftees will only be at the lowest price from pick 49 (Dylan Main – WCE) onwards. This means we pay a premium for more rookies than ever before and that premium will be higher than ever before. Picking the kids correctly is going to be even more important now.

    – If VS keep the formula that they have used for GWS, then there will be a lot of very tasty looking discounts for players who played 9 (!) or less games in 2013. The basic standard seems to be that you get a 30% discount for no games (meaning Hamish McIntosh and Matt Suckling are going to be priced at 71 and 58 respectively! Alex Johnson, while not a great scorer, could be a handy bench option as he should be priced at 45 and will play every week barring injury.) From there, you get a 3% less discount for each game that you played. For example, if you played 3 games in 2013, you get a 21% discount.

    – This isn’t confirmed, but that should see Sandilands priced at just 58, Polec priced down with the rookies, Dayne Beams at 93 and Dale Thomas at 67. Along with McIntosh and Suckling that is six guys that will be next to impossible to ignore next season. Along with McVeigh and Mitchell confirmed as D/M DPPs that makes eight for mine. The mid-pricer strategy will be much more in vogue in 2014.

    – While it is not strictly for SC, AFL Fantasy are releasing the prices for their game over the next 18 days. It won’t give us the exact prices for SC, but it will tell us DPP changes and it will also give us information on discounts for players. For those keen to follow: http://fantasy.afl.com.au/player-prices. Melbourne come out next (in two days) so we get to see prices for the likes of Michie, Hogan and Dom Tyson (who should be priced at only 35!)

    Walesy, of TooSerious fame and usually a fellow in the know, has written the following re: the GWS price releases this morning: “I’ve heard that this massive rookie loading is a DT only initiative this year. Wonder is SC will follow.”

    Personally, I’m not sure whether I’d prefer them to follow the DT lead or not, but interesting to note that this may be another difference in the games in 2014.

    So the Dees information is now out. Key pieces:

    – Jesse Hogan will be a lot more expensive compared to what Jaeger was this season. In 2013 O’Meara was priced down with the kids after being involved in the mini-draft a season earlier. This year, Hogan starts at a slightly more expensive price than #1 selection, Tom Boyd. For mine, this basically prices him out of my side.

    * The other down side of this is that you would expect Jack Martin to have a similar premium and, while I still think that he will warrant selection, it will cost you more to take him than say, #2 selection Kelly.

    – Viv Michie and Dom Tyson are both going to be a bit more than expected, but both will still be less than most first round draft selections and have AFL pre-seasons under their belts, so they are still pretty tempting selection options.

    – Mitch Clark is cheap. Very cheap. Cheaper than Tyson and Hogan cheap. Basically, he should replace Hogan on your radar. He is really injury prone recently, but he is an experienced campaigner who is priced with draftees. He averaged 83 in his first season at the Dees too, so if he can stay on the park and get an 80+ average – at first round draftee price – that would be exceptional value as a starting F6.

    – Jack Grimes has D/M and Jack Watts D/F and they are probably the only remotely fantasy relevant DPPs at the Dees at this stage.

    In other news, apparently the following will/won’t be DPPs (from a number of sources)

    MID Only:

    Tom Rockliff, Brendon Goddard, Steve Johnson, Dyson Heppell (all expected) and Dale Thomas (damn…)

    RUCK Only:

    Dean Cox and Nic Nat (damn again as it means we will now have to pick two of the under-priced trio of Nic Nat, Sandilands and McIntosh)

    M/F:

    Luke Parker (tempting), Tom Mitchell (also tempting, even with the dreaded second-year-blues), Chad Wingard (got to be in contention), Ben Howlett (under-priced but probably not) and, wait for it, PATRICK DANGERFIELD (well there is most people’s F1 sorted!)

    D/M:

    Luke Hodge, Jarrad McVeigh and Sam Mitchell (as mentioned earlier), Jimmy Bartel (was resurgent last season so must be looked at) and there are conflicting reports as to whether Andrew Walker will get it or not.

    So biggest news: P. Dangerfield is available as a forward again!

    Interesting to note that apparently the Eagles have ZERO DPP players in 2014 – meaning Cox, Naitanui, Wellingham and Sinclair have all lost it and none of their new players get it either.

    Not a heap of interesting information with the Saints.

    Billings is a DPP (M/F) which is a plus, but he is still very expensive.

    Probably the best thing is the Billy Longer is priced down with the kids meaning that, if he gets the #1 ruck duties over Hickey, he will be a great R3 and possibly a cheaper, alternate strategy R2 (for those feeling adventurous)

    Well the Dogs only have two DPP players, both M/F (Hunter and Honeychurch). Bit surprised Higgins lost his after only playing three game this season, but anyway…

    Their whole side looks uninteresting from a fantasy point of view. Griffen and Minson will be good (and expensive) and the rest don’t look under-priced enough to worry about.

    Gold Coast information is out and there are a few interesting things.

    – Charlie Dixon has received R/F DPP status. He averaged 89 last year which was reduced by three red vestings. He knocked up scores of 102, 103, 104, 115, 130 and 142 in six of his 13 games, so he can get the job done. Not sure if he is really in my calculations, but someone to keep an eye on with a number of last seasons valuable R/F DPPs losing that status in 2014.

    – David Swallow does get the D/M DPP. This would probably be bigger and more exciting news if he wasn’t sharing this new-found status with Mitchell, Hodge and McVeigh, but after three years in the system, the Suns would be hoping he takes his game to the next level pretty soon.

    – It is confirmed that, unlike Jaeger O’Meara in 2013, Jack Martin will not be priced with the cheaper kids. Rather, he will be the most expensive first year player in the game! You still have to look at him, because everyone has been telling us for 12 months that he is performing better than Jaeger at the same stage and Jaeger did produce an 89.9 average last season. That being said, selecting him is now a harder decision for fantasy coaches to make than it would’ve been if things had stayed status quo.

    – For mine though, the biggest news is Nathan Bock. Whilst he is no longer a D/F DPP (now only available as a forward), he will be priced down with the later draft picks. He won’t score you lots of points but, if he is able to actually play, he is a safer bet than a kid – and cheaper than most of them too! All he needs to do is get through the pre-season, continue playing in the forward line and just string together three good weeks and he will have done his job, from a bargain basement price. It’s still early planning, but Mitch Clark at F6 and Bock at F7 is looking like a good way to start.

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  2. Did I write that somewhere did I? Sounds like something I’d say. 🙂

    Good to see that you boys are going around for another season! Always fun to read your work.

    And surely you caught my #DTLeaks! 😉

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  3. Thanks, Motts.

    Hope it’s useful in part to those who haven’t been able to kick the SC (and SCT) habit and remain here in the ‘off-season’.

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  4. Well done guys, great work. Gonna be a really tough year next year if the rules have been changed. If Bock starts he will have to be a lock, too cheap to pass up. Dixon could be a good option up Fwd at $386 and Swallow in Def @$377 is tempting. Mitchell & McVeigh are Locked in for me. As is Dangerfield up FWD. Martin whilst pricey is still a bargain at $268. My big question is to Ablett or not to Ablett?

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  5. I really like the idea of the best new kids being higher priced. It’s means for starting teams not everyone will have Martin and Hogan so it mixes up the head to head matches

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  6. As we had already been told, the Eagles are indeed DPP-less, so if you want Nic Nat, then it’ll have to be as a ruckman.

    Personally, my early gut feeling is telling me to start with the WA pairing of Naitanui and Sandilands with Longer backing them up on the pine but, with the injury history of Sandilands, that could change in an instant.

    The main thing that I am taking from looking at the Eagles this morning is yet another piece in confirming for me that the returning-from-injury players are going to be more important than rookies in 2014. With their elevated prices, most of them are going to be a risk to far for me.

    Xavier Ellis joins the list today of more-appealing-than-a-rookie.

    If he gets through pre-season is, as with most of them, the caveat. He is priced down with the cheaper kids and, in an exercise in comparison to show my point, just look at his new teammate, Dom Sheed.

    Sheed will start DT at $100k more. As per usual, you would expect that gap to be even higher in SC (if SC do follow DTs lead and significantly elevate the prices of the top 47 draftees).

    Ellis has previously had four consecutive years averaging 73-79 and, if he can stay injury free, you would expect that sort of return again. Being $100k cheaper than a top-line talent like Sheed and coming off his eighth pre-season compared to Sheed’s first, you would have to have Ellis higher on your list at this stage. Sheed could average you low 80s, but that means he wouldn’t make as much cash as Ellis and there is no guarantee that a kid will play week in week out, something that a mature player will do.

    Already we have the likes of Tyson, Michie, Ellis, Bock, Longer and Mitch Clark costing less than the top line kids and, with the possible exception of Ellis, looking to me like they are in their respective sides best 21.

    It’s hard to argue that having Tyson and Ellis on your mid bench, Longer and a DPP on the ruck bench and Clark and Bock on your forward bench wouldn’t sound a lot more comforting than having six rookies coming into team selections every Thursday.

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  7. From the Lions, we already knew that Rocky was a M only. It’s still possible that you may want to start with him – he averaged 128.2 over the last nine weeks when Voss had to play him in the guts – but you’d have to be confident that you know where Leppa is going to play him before you do.

    Pearce Hanley, who at this stage I have in my top three targets as a starting backman, has attained the valuable D/M DPP status. It could’ve just as easily been D/F, as he was placed in the forward line numerous times by Voss in an attempt to break tags – he had 16 goals for the season – but D/M is probably the better call. It would’ve been nice to have a D/F starting with a couple of D/M guns, but he remains very high on my watchlist.

    Zorko retains his M/F status which may interest some people if they think that he can bounce back to his rookie season form.

    Staker has lost his B eligibility, but he was really only a fantasy interest last season anyway, so he has done his job.

    If you are going to start with a rookie over a number the multitudes of value in the returning-from-injury crew, then Aish would have to be high on most people’s list. Brisbane lost so many of their early picks in the trade ‘week’ and Aish has spent the last two seasons playing senior SANFL football. He is on the expensive new rookie scale, but he is worth a look.

    Stefan Martin is part of the ever-dwindling list who has retained his R/F status and he has previously averaged 85 and 78 with the Dees. You’d be brave to pick him after he only clocked up five games and a 45ppg average last season, but priced down with the kids and with the status, you have to look at him.

    The theme for me has become clear recently and it is mature AFL talent priced down below early draft picks. Today, it’s Claye Beams and Jackson Paine.

    Claye has shown flashes in his 15 games over three seasons, with two 100s from his ten vest-free games. I think the thing that is most appealing is looking to the last three games that he played in 2012. It was the best season he has had in terms of staying on the field – a worryingly low, eight games – and he finished the season on a high with 80, 103 and 115 in the last three weeks. It shows that, if he gets a proper run at it, he can and should score.

    Jackson Paine would probably be more tempting if Mitch Clark wasn’t so cheap – speaking of whom: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-12-11/clark-eyes-preseason-game – but again, down with the kids, you have to see if he is going to get games and what role he may play. Usually, if you trade for somebody, you see them in your future plans.

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  8. Almost saving me a job there Don 😉

    Almost…

    Will enjoy talking up this mob in a few months… not expecting a total overhaul of the starting 22 but I think if Leppa takes the Ken Hinkley approach and drafts in a couple of these new rookie priced mature players to shake things up a bit in round one we supercoaches stand to reap the benefits.

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  9. Friday the 13th is supposed to bring bad luck, but with the confirmation that Dangerfield DPPs M/F in 2014, I think we can put that to bed.

    Eight DPPs at the Crows (compared to the Eagles zero), but there doesn’t appear to be a ton of value there at this stage.

    Tex Walker won’t cost a whole lot more than the top kids, but since he won’t come back until close to mid-season, he is a pass.

    Matt Crouch will be more expensive than we would’ve liked but, like his brother, he knows how to find it.

    Sam Shaw is another potential. After a promising 72.9 average in 2012, he managed only two games last season and will be priced in with the draftees. If he can find a spot in the Crows 22 and stay injury free then he may be worth a look in the defense.

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  10. Courtesy of Walesy and TS.

    Players who have gained Dual Position eligibility in 2014
    P Dangerfield: MID/FWD
    C Wingard: MID/FWD
    L Parker: MID/FWD
    T Mitchell: MID/FWD
    A Walker: DEF/FWD
    S Mitchell: DEF/MID
    J McVeigh: DEF/MID
    L Hodge: DEF/MID
    P Hanley: DEF/MID
    H Lumumba: DEF/MID
    B Reid: DEF/FWD
    J Blair: MID/FWD
    T Bellchambers: RUC/FWD
    B Howlett: MID/FWD
    J Bartel: DEF/MID
    C Dixon: RUC/FWD
    D Swallow: DEF/MID
    D Smith: MID/FWD
    R Palmer: MID/FWD
    M Daw: RUC/FWD
    P Chapman: MID/FWD
    C Sylvia: MID/FWD
    J Caddy: FWD/MID
    N Vardy: FWD/RUC

    Players who have lost Dual Position eligibility in 2014
    D Thomas: MID
    B Goddard: MID
    T Rockliff: MID
    S Johnson: MID
    D Cox: RUC
    N Natanui: RUC
    B Gibbs: MID
    D Heppell: MID
    M Hurley: FWD
    P Ryder: RUC
    J Pittard: DEF
    S Wellingham: MID
    H Hartlett MID
    M Weller: DEF
    Ja Roughead: FWD
    B Ellis: MID

    New Position
    A Walker: DEF
    K Simpson: DEF

    DP Rookies/Rookie Priced
    Michael Apeness: RUC/FWD
    Dayle Garlett: MID/FWD
    Luke McDonald: DEF/MID
    Mitch Honeychurch: MID/FWD
    Lewis Taylor FWD/MID
    Jack Billings FWD/MID
    Fraser Thurlow FWD/RUCK
    Alex Spina FWD/MID
    Patrick Wearden FWD/MID
    Tom Curren FWD/DEF
    Tom Langdon DEF/MID
    Jayden Hunt DEF/MID
    Cameron Shenton FWD/MID

    Complete list of Multi Position Players

    Adelaide Crows
    P Dangerfield Fwd/Mid
    S Kerridge Fwd/Mid
    M Wright Fwd/Mid
    A Otten Def/Fwd
    J Lyons Fwd/Mid
    S McKernan Fwd/Ruc
    R Knight Fwd/Mid
    A Spina Fwd/Mid

    Brisbane Lions
    P Hanley Def/Mid
    D Zorko Fwd/Mid
    S Mayes Fwd/Mid
    D Merrett Def/Fwd
    S Martin Fwd/Ruc
    L Taylor Fwd/Mid
    P Wearden Fwd/Mid

    Carlton
    M Robinson Fwd/Mid
    L Henderson Def/Fwd
    D Armfield Fwd/Mid
    S Rowe Fwd/Ruc
    N Duigan Def/Fwd

    Collingwood
    H Lumumba Def/Mid
    J Blair Fwd/Mid
    B Reid Def/Fwd
    S Dwyer Fwd/Mid
    T Langdon Def/Mid

    Essendon
    B Howlett Fwd/Mid
    P Chapman Fwd/Mid
    T Bellchambers Fwd/Ruc
    N Kommer Fwd/Mid
    F Thurlow Fwd/Ruc

    Fremantle
    C Sylvia Fwd/Mid
    M De Boer Fwd/Mid
    M Apeness Fwd/Ruc
    J Simpson Fwd/Mid

    Geelong Cats
    J Bartel Def/Mid
    J Caddy Fwd/Mid
    T Varcoe Fwd/Mid
    N Vardy Fwd/Ruc

    Gold Coast Suns
    C Dixon Fwd/Ruc
    M Shaw Def/Mid
    D Swallow Def/Mid
    S Day Def/Fwd
    S May Def/Fwd

    GWS Giants
    D Smith Fwd/Mid
    R Palmer Fwd/Mid

    Hawthorn
    S Mitchell Def/Mid
    L Hodge Def/Mid
    S Burgoyne Def/Mid
    D Hale Fwd/Ruc
    D Garlett Fwd/Mid

    Melbourne
    J Grimes Def/Mid
    J Watts Def/Fwd
    J Fitzpatrick Fwd/Ruc
    S Blease Fwd/Mid
    J Hunt Def/Mid

    North Melbourne
    B Harvey Fwd/Mid
    L Adams Fwd/Mid
    S Wright Def/Fwd
    L McDonald Def/Mid
    M Daw Fwd/Ruc
    B Brown Fwd/Ruc
    T Curran Def/Fwd

    Port Adelaide
    C Wingard Fwd/Mid
    R Gray Fwd/Mid
    S Colquhoun Def/Mid

    Richmond
    D Martin Fwd/Mid
    N Vlastuin Def/Mid

    St Kilda
    J Billings Fwd/Mid
    C Shenton Fwd/Mid
    T Curren Fwd/Def

    Sydney Swans
    J McVeigh Def/Mid
    T Mitchell Fwd/Mid
    L Parker Fwd/Mid
    C Bird Fwd/Mid
    L Jetta Fwd/Mid
    D Towers Fwd/Mid
    L Roberts-Thomson Def/Fwd

    Western Bulldogs
    L Hunter Fwd/Mid
    M Honeychurch Fwd/Mid

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  11. TOP 10 MOST EXPENSIVE PLAYERS

    1. Gary Ablett (CG) $695,000 mid
    2. Scott Pendlebury (Coll) $681,300 mid
    3. Joel Selwood (Geel) $638,700 mid
    4. Dane Swan (Coll) $632,600 mid
    4. Ryan Griffen (WB) $627,600 mid
    5. Steve Johnson (Geel) $625,000 mid
    6. Leigh Montagna (StK) $619,000 mid
    7. Will Minson (WB) $616,600 ruck
    8. Todd Goldstein (NM) $612,400
    9. Patrick Dangerfield (Adel) $609,000 fwd/mid
    10. Jobe Watson (Ess) $601,300 mid

    10 PLAYERS AT NEW HOMES

    Heath Shaw (GWS) $522,600 def
    Ben McEvoy (Haw) $503,300 ruck
    Lance Franklin (Syd) $487,700 fwd
    Paul Chapman (Ess) $464,400 fwd/mid
    Daniel Cross (Melb) $477,100 mid
    Bernie Vince (Melb) $424,300 mid
    Eddie Betts (Adel) $362,700 fwd
    Maverick Weller (StK) $292,500 def
    Dom Tyson (Melb) $216,800 mid
    Xavier Ellis (WC) $159,100 mid

    10 NEW DUAL-POSITION PLAYERS

    Patrick Dangerfield (Adel) $609,000 fwd/mid
    Jimmy Bartel (Geel) $572,500 def/mid
    Jarrad McVeigh (Syd) $572,500 def/mid
    Sam Mitchell (Haw) $562,200 def/mid
    Luke Hodge (Haw) $561,200 def/mid
    Pearce Hanley (Bris) $516,200 def/mid
    Heritier Lumumba (Coll) $474,700 def/mid
    Tom Mitchell (Syd) $464,800 fwd/mid
    Tom Bellchambers (Ess) $437,500 ruck/fwd
    Ben Reid (Coll) $435,400 def/fwd

    10 POTENTIAL BARGAINS

    Tom Hawkins (Geel) $359,500 fwd
    Aaron Sandilands (Frem) $310,700 ruck
    Rhyce Shaw (Syd) $299,400 def
    Mitch Clark (Melb) $242,900 fwd
    Jack Martin (GC) $222,300 mid
    Jesse Hogan (Melb) $217,300 fwd
    Tom Boyd (GWS) $217,300 fwd
    Alex Fasolo (Coll) $213,600 fwd
    Anthony Morabito (Frem) $123,900 mid
    Dayle Garlett (Haw) $117,300 fwd/mid

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  12. Standard rookies will cost you $117,300 in 2014 – better known as the 115k and 109k rookies that we’ve been used to. AFL rookie listed players will set you back $102,400 – up from the 94k in previous years.

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  13. It will be interesting to see where Sandi fits once Jon Griffin, Z.Clarke and K.Bradley. Griffin and Sandi been sharing the number 1 ruck, high scores and injuries job for 3 years now. Griffin is 27 and looking for the number 1 spot. Clarke is only getting better, and at 24 and could look elsewhere for opportunities if they are limited. The only reason I mention Kepler is because he played the ruck/fwd job for them for a few years whilst the others were off the park.

    Personally I want two things from all of my players, high scores and regular games.
    -Bradley hasn’t played more than 15 games in a season since coming to Freo.
    -Sandi hasn’t played more than 13 games since 2011 and has played less and less games every year since 2008. He played 7 in 2013.
    -Griffin and Clarke haven’t played more than 15 games in a season in their careers.

    I will still look at Sandi if he is fit for round one, but once he gets his first 3 games injury he will be cashed in. It is hard to pass on someone with his scoring potential at that price, just remember that we would all usually be turned off by an injury prone 31 year old that averaged 64 the previous year.

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  14. Righto, I’m bored, not much to do at work so have worked on a team. After the disappointment of my 2013 season I figure there may be a slight chance of improvement if I start now…

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