2018 MidPrice Madness

Written by Schwarzwalder on August 22 2017

Freo Tragic is (like many of us) already looking ahead to 2018 and the bargains that await us all.  In the past, a ‘Guns & Rookies’ approach has been the most successful team set-up when entering a season.  There were however, many midpricers that stood up for the entire season (Josh Kelly, Marc Murphy, Clayton Oliver) and proved an absolute bargain for those astute Coaches.  So who will be the better of the midpricers in 2018?  Who should we be marking down?  Freo Tragic has some suggestions for us:

Nic Nat
P Seedsman
H. Bennell
C. Petracca
P Hanley

 

Do you agree with FT?  Disagree?

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18 thoughts on “2018 MidPrice Madness”

  1. There’s some high midpricers that look attractive.

    Hugh Greenwood will be about 465k and with only 65% game time (he’s 17th for point per minute) and 16 disposals per game. He could take his average from 84 to 95 or higher if he builds his fitness and disposal count. Watch a lot of preseason to see if this occurs. He could be mid-fwd or mid only.

    Conor Blakely averaged 110 from rounds 6 to 19 (disregarding the 7 he got injured on) and will come in around 490k. He should be in defence according to heat maps or def-mid and could easily average 100+ next year. Hopefully there are no injury or preseason troubles

    Another docker. This is more risky but Michael Walters averaged 87 but was scoring big when he was thrown in the middle and could be a very good investment if he’s a fwd-mid next year (should be). Averaged 108.7 from round 7-18 (not including the game he got injured but including the game he got 49 in the wet at Adelaide). Should be about 480k. Again this depends on how he comes back from the PCL/goes in preseason.

    Petracca (maybe this time), Dunstan and De Goey will also be tempting.

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    1. Amazingly Greenwood is the number 1 forward for points per minute with Townsend and Bennell hilariously 2 and 3 after playing their first game on Sunday. Macrae is the real number 2 and is 11 places below him. The guy is a bull.

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      1. He already spends a little bit of time in the midfield, so with another pre-season under his belt, I expect him to spend even more time there.

        But even if he doesn’t, he’s been averaging 96 since round 14. He’s the kind of player who can score anywhere.

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        1. Yeah I know he’s been scoring brilliantly as a forward but I try to load my team with as many quasi/pseudo forwards as possible to avoid inconsistency. That said, having a look now he seems to get a lot of disposals for a forward and get big scores without a lot of goals. Having watched him a few times recently he seems to be playing a sort of CHF role and with some extra midfield time he could be a very decent pick.

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          1. I’m all for the pseudo-forward strategy in principle, but if this year is anything to go by, Champion Data isn’t going to let us pick midfielders and pretend they’re forwards any longer.

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            1. The options are not what they once were. However, Billings, Robbie Gray, Petracca (if he breaks out), Walters, Gunston (fwd and defence) and Hugh Greenwood (more doubtful) are basically guaranteed as forwards next year.

              Prior to Wingard getting injured my forward line was Yeo, Dahlhaus, Macrae, Wingard, Ryder and Heeney. I’m pretty sure something like that would be achievable this year. It’s kind of irrelevant because CHF’s (Curnow) are much more likely to be consistent than your standard forwards.

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      2. I think he’ll continue to play his current role. He’s too good to just sit in the fwd line. His field kicking is pretty decent for a fwd as well. Contested marks and possies. He’s going to be a ripper

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  2. Cam Ellis-Yolmen will be around $213K next year. This is the borderline between a rookie and a mid-pricer, but either way, he represents good value.

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  3. A lot of this depends on next year’s rookie stocks. When they are good, Guns & Rookies is the best strategy by a long margin. When they are bad (e.g. this year), we need to start looking for value.

    This can also be applied on a positional level. If there are no good premiums or rookies in a particular position (e.g. the forward line this year), then this is a good place to look for value.

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  4. Might not be the right place to ask this question but i would luv to hear any commets on breakout players for 2018 & possible position changes.
    Examples
    Daniher R/F
    Papley M/F
    Curnoe M/F
    Lobb R/F

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    1. Elliott Yeo Def/Mid
      Conor Blakely Def/Mid
      Michael Walters Fwd/Mid
      Brandon Ellis Def/Mid
      Robbie Gray Fwd (maybe fwd/mid)

      Some such as Jock have been saying Danger, Dusty, Heeney and Bont could be forwards next year and although that would be nice I’m not too sure based on heat maps. I think the three criteria are heat maps (I imagine this is the most important), where the player is listed on the team sheet (luckily Robbie has often been listed as rover whilst playing forwards) and where the player is positioned at stoppages (if the same rules apply as afl fantasy http://overthelinesports.com.au/?p=30304)

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  5. Will be keeping a close eye on the following injury affected players from 2017:
    C Ellis-Yolmen
    T Bell
    A Christensen
    M Robinson
    B Sinclair
    H Bennell
    C Gregson
    S Day
    S Coniglio
    B Deledio
    G Birchall
    J Ceglar
    C Rioli
    A Brayshaw
    P Ahern
    S Lycett
    N Naitunai
    W Rioli
    D Venables

    Also I have started researching and compiling the stats used in my captaincy articles for premium players and it looks there will be in excess of 200 pages of information which will be split into 18 articles (1 for each team). Hopefully this should be finished by early to late February 2018.

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