AFL SC – Premium Defenders

Written by Motts on January 3 2020

While the rest of us have been immersed in the Big Bash and celebrating the new year, Ben has been hard at work assessing this year’s premium options in AFL Supercoach. Today kicks off a series of analysis where he looks at who’s available on each line and gives you his thoughts. Today he’s throwing the Defensive options under the microscope. If you’re on The Twitter, give Ben a follow. You’ll find him under @BenSCT1. Great stuff mate!

 

 

Hello everyone, I know we’re currently in the middle of the BBL Supercoach season, as well as the holiday period, however since the 2020 team picker was released I’ve been captivated by all of the new discounted players and mid-pricers ready to break out, as I’m sure you all have too. However, one thing that’s overlooked this early on is premium player selection. Selecting the right premos is essential to a good Supercoach season, as if you start with the wrong ones, you can and will fall behind very quickly. For example, I did NOT start Nat Fyfe last year due to his injury history, and he was so damn good all year I never found an opportunity to trade him in. Therefore, I had a rough season last year, in part due to not having the player with the 5th best average in the league (oops!).

So, even though it’s early days and we’re still months away from JLT (hurry up already though!), I thought I’d assess the viability of each premium currently available.

I’ve classified a premium as a DEF/FWD whose starting price is above 500k, or a MID/RUCK whose starting price is above 550k. I will be giving them scores out of 5 based on three factors:

–          Consistency – Do they play close to 22 games a season, and do they rarely have a bad game?

–          Ceiling – Can they score huge amounts of points, or is there room for growth this season.

–          Value – Is this player worth their starting price tag?

I’ll break this into multiple parts divided up by position, since I don’t want to burn out writing analysis for over 50 players and I don’t expect everyone to read a big wall of text that probably isn’t even that insightful.

Oh, also this is probably self-explanatory, but this is my opinion. These articles are supposed to

  1. Help brand new players assess some of the premium options available to them with advice from an experienced player.
  2. Create discussion between other experienced players about premium options and what we all individually think of each player.
  3. Give me a massive ego boost by tricking myself into thinking my opinion is important

Do not take my word as gospel (unless you really like me, in which case don’t come crying to me if all of your premo choices failed because you listened to me.)

Anyway, without further ado, let’s start with the defenders.

 

Jake Lloyd – $591,400 – 2019 avg 108

Consistency – 4.5/5

Jake Lloyd, aka “Skywalker”, aka “The Seagull”, aka, “How the hell does he have 130 points I’ve barely seen him all game”, is as consistent as they come in terms of staying on the park, as he played all 22 games last year and has only missed 1 game in the last 4 years. He is also consistent in his scoring, as he only missed the ton 5 times last season, and all of those scores were in the 80’s. The only reason he doesn’t get 5/5 for consistency is because 4 out of those 5 missed tons came in the last 5 weeks In the season. Something to be mindful of, as end of season form does sometimes translate into next season form.

Ceiling – 3/5

Jake only gets an O.K score for ceiling, as he often creeps into the 120-130 range, but rarely surpasses it. Only 3 of his scores last season were 130 or more.

Value – 3/5

Jake is expensive at nearly 600k, but at the end of the day that’s what you have to pay to get the top defender of 2019. He’s a super reliable scorer who shouldn’t have any dip in production in 2020, however the last 5 rounds of 2019 and the rise of Jordan Dawson does give some reason for concern. Definitely not a steal at that price, but not overpriced either.

 

Bachar Houli – $571,600 – 2019 avg 105.3

Consistency – 1.5/5

Bachar has had a terrible run with injuries the last few years, only playing 12, 18, 13 and 19 games the past 4 seasons. He also is not the most consistent scorer when he’s on the park, as he had 6 games under 90 last year, with a season low of 60 against the Saints. You’re definitely rolling the dice if you start with him.

Ceiling – 3.5/5

Houli does go big quite a bit compared to some other DEF premo options, evident in the fact that 4 of his 13 tons were scores of 139+. However, he doesn’t go truly large with no scores over 150, hence the merely ok rating.

Value – 1/5

Houli is just not a value pick at $571k this season, as since he has a bad score every now and again, he will almost certainly drop in value. I would not be shocked if his starting price is the most expensive he gets all season. Season 2019 was also the first Bachar averaged over 100, which at his age is not a good sign. I’d personally avoid starting with him at all costs. Plus he punched Jed Lamb for no good reason, I mean c’mon, has Jed Lamb ever done anything to warrant him being punched?

 

Shannon Hurn – $562,200 – 2019 avg 103.5

Consistency – 3.5/5

Hurn’s scores tend to fluctuate a little bit, but thankfully they all usually fall between the 90-120 range, which is good for a DEF premo. He did however go under 90 5 times last season, including a 56 in round 21 against the Crows. He also doesn’t usually miss many games, however he did miss 3 last season and considering his age that number could very easily go up.

Ceiling – 2.5/5

Shannon doesn’t go huge as often as someone like Houli, as he only surpassed the 139 mark twice last season, but one of those times he scored a huge 161, so if he does go big he can go really big. Most of his tons come in the 100-115 range.

Value – 2/5

Starting Hurn doesn’t hold much value in my opinion due to his age and scoring history. 2019 was his first year averaging over 100, and since he turns 33 next year it would seem that it is an outlier than the new norm. If he regresses back to his regular 90-95 average, it would not be good value to start him at $560k. Plus he never even made AA captain, what a scrub.

 

Zac Williams – $551,700 – 2019 avg 101.6

Consistency – 3/5

Zac is a fairly consistent scorer for your backline, having only scored 5 times below 90 and 9 times below 100 in 2019. He hits the ton more often than not which is what you need to do to be a premo player in Supercoach. However, it must be mentioned that he did miss all of 2018 with a knee injury, so despite the fact that he seems over it, he could re-injure it at any time.

Ceiling – 3/5

Some might think this is a bit high of a rating for a player that only scored over 130 twice last year, however let me explain. Both of Zac’s scores over 130 were actually over 140 (140 and 143 respectively), and I see his high scores actually increase next year with one caveat: he continues to play midfield. Once GWS threw him in the guts his average increased to much higher than the advertised 101, meaning he could be a value pick-up in your backline.

Value – 4/5 (if he plays midfield), 3/5 (if he doesn’t)

The bulk of the decision of selecting Zac surrounds his mid time. If it looks like he’ll be a full time mid next year, he’s a fantastic value selection at only $550k. If he looks likely to play solely backline, he’ll still be a fine choice for your D1 spot to start the year.

 

Caleb Daniel – $537,900 – 2019 avg 99.1

Consistency – 4/5

Daniel was a revelation for our forward lines last year when Bevo swung him into the backline to take full advantage of his beautiful kicking, and to have him play 1 on 1 with Harry McKay, but surprisingly that didn’t end well. However, this year he’s listed as a defender which makes it much harder to select him with much more competition for that spot. When he played in the backline he was awesome, tonning up 9 times in 17 games, and going under 90 only 5 times (and I believe 1 one 2 of those games were either injury affected or he was coming back from injury). He is ultra-consistent in that back pocket and if he continues to play there will be a safe pick.

Ceiling – 1/5

The main downside to Daniel is that he does not go big at all in this role. He only went over 120 twice last season, with a season high of 124 (this will become a theme, just wait). Definitely not a captaincy option that’s for sure.

Value – 4/5

If Daniel continues to play the same role as last year, he is a fantastic, no nonsense pick for your backline, as injury was the only thing to really derail his excellent season last year. However, Bevo has the nickname Mr. Magnets for a reason, and if Daniel gets stuck back in a forward pocket it could really ruin your season. Speaking of which, now that we can no longer curse FURL (RIP Ross), I want to start a petition for Bevo to be the new FU when he moves a player to a worse position for no good reason. FULB!

 

Tom Stewart – $533,200 – 2019 avg 98.2

Consistency – 4/5

Tom Stewart was the second highest scoring defender in Supercoach 2019, all thanks to his immense consistency. He rarely has a bad game, only going under 90 6 times in 22 games, and doesn’t have absolutely awful games either, with his season low being 74 in round 19. He also tons up quite a bit too, tonning up 8 times throughout the year. Also has not missed a game due to injury in the last 2 years. Ultra-reliable.

Ceiling – 1.5/5

In a parallel to Daniel, with Stewart’s consistency comes a low ceiling, only going 120+ 3 times last year with a season high of 124. Not someone to rely on in your leagues for a come from behind victory.

Value – 4/5

Like Daniel, Stewart is an unflashy, hard working DEF premo you can always count on to give you about 90-100 points a week. I see no reason for him to regress either, so at $533k he is practically a steal.

 

Dane Rampe – $527,800 – 2019 avg 97.2

Consistency – 3/5

It was a tale of two halves last season for Rampe, as his second half was much, much better than his first 10 or so rounds. In the first 9 rounds, Rampe only tonned up twice and went under 90 5 times, including a yucky 58 in round seven. However, from round 10 onwards Dane tonned up a whopping 8 times in 12 games, and only dropped below 90 once in the last round with a 79. So which Dane are we getting in 2020?

Ceiling – 2/5

Not much to say here, Rampe only went over 130 twice with a season high of 148. Not terrible, not great either though. If only climbing goal posts netted you points.

Value – 2.5/5

I’m giving Dane a relatively low rating in terms of value because of the high risk involved, you just don’t know which Dane Rampe you will get. If you get rounds 1-9 Rampe where he averaged 84.4, he is definitely not worth his near $530k price tag. However, if you get rounds 10-23 Rampe where he averaged 106.7, then half price Maxibons pale in comparison to the value Rampe provides.

 

Rory Laird – $525,800 – 2019 avg 96.8

Consistency – 3.5/5

Last year was a bit of an outlier for The Desk, as in the past few years he has been a model of consistency in our backlines, evident in his 2018 campaign where he only went under 100 6 times throughout the year. For various reasons, this wasn’t quite the case for Laird last season, as he went under 90 8 times, including a season low of 73. However, past history and the fact that Rory has only missed 2 games in the last 3 years bumps his score up a little.

Ceiling – 2/5

Similar to Daniel and Stewart before him, Laird is not a huge scorer. He only went 120+ 3 times last season, with a season high of 124 (not I am not kidding, so far the 3 consistent but low scoring DEF all scored a season high of 124 last year). However, he gets a slightly higher score than the others since he has shown in previous years he can go 120+ fairly often (he did it 6 times in 2018).

Value – 3/5

At the end of the day, even if last year was the new norm, paying $525k for a defender who won’t miss a game and will average 95-100 won’t be a bad pick. Could there be better picks? Of course. But I see Laird as a low risk, medium reward type of premo.

Daniel Rich – $525,800 – 2019 avg 96.8

Consistency – 2.5/5

Like Laird, 2019 was a bit of an outlier for Rich, as this was only his 3rd season in 10 years to average over 90, and his first averaging 95+. He did so with some consistency, only going under 90 7 times, with a season low of 66. He has had a few injuries in the past that shouldn’t be an issue, but something to think about regardless.

Ceiling – 1/5

Daniel is not a big scorer at all. He went over 120 a whopping one time last year, scoring 127 round two against North Melbourne. Keep the vest well clear of him!

Value – 2/5

Although Dan had a very good season last year, when you have a proven Supercoach star in Laird at the exact same price, it becomes hard to recommend him. It makes it even harder to recommend him when due to age, and the talent level of the young side he plays for, it is more likely that his form regresses than progresses.

 

Nic Newman – $524,800 – 2019 avg 96.7

Consistency – 1/5

After his successful move to the greatest club to ever exist (no bias here I promise!), and locking down his spot in Carlton’s best 22, he didn’t miss a game the entire season. However, his spot in the best 22 this year is completely up in the air. With the return of AA and co-captain Sam Docherty, a healthy Tom Williamson (fingers crossed!), and SPS training exclusively with the defenders this pre-season, Newman’s spot in the side could be in jeopardy. If we have no major injuries I seriously doubt he plays 22 games next season.

In addition, even if he does play all 22, his scoring is not consistent at all. He went under 90 in 11 games last year, literally HALF of his games, including a season low of 57. Wear your lucky underwear if you plan on starting him.

Ceiling – 3.5/5

Newman’s redeeming factor last year was his huge ceiling; when he had a good game, he had a really good game. He hit the ton 7 times last season, and every single ton was 110+, including some massive scores of 147 and 161. However, even if he does keep his spot in the best 22, I can see his ceiling dropping as Doch and SPS etc. steal some possessions off of him.

Value – 0/5

Yep, a zero! I unfortunately just can’t see any reason you’d start Newman this year, especially at that price. Scoring consistency aside, you really don’t want to be paying $524k for a player that may or may not play each week. Hard pass. Also I’ve never seen Seinfeld so I apologise for my lack of Newman jokes.

 

Luke Ryan – $520,400 – 2019 avg 95.8

Consistency – 2/5

Luke has had some issues with both staying on the park and scoring well when he’s healthy. He’s missed 6 games in the last 2 seasons, and when he plays he is prone it projectile vomit up a bad score every now and again. He went under 90 8 times in 18 games last season, including two back to back 60’s in rounds 15 and 16.

Ceiling – 2.5/5

Ryan doesn’t go big a whole lot, but his ceiling is reasonably high when he does. He scored 130+ 3 times last year, and those scores included a 156 in round 3 against the Saints.

Value – 2/5

There’s not much to say about Ryan really. He’s a fairly uninspiring pick that I can’t see improving much on his 2019 campaign. He’s not a terrible pick, but there are much better picks for a similar price.

 

James Sicily – $509,500 – 2019 avg 93.8

Consistency – 1.5/5

Sicily has a really poor score for consistency due to score fluctuation, and struggling to stay on the park. First, his scores really went up and down last year, sometimes because he had a bad game, sometimes because Clarko decided for no goddamn reason to throw him into the forward line for a game and have it fail miserably, only to then do the exact same thing the NEXT BLOODY WEEK, WHY CLARKO WHY? (can you tell I owned Sicily last year?) Anyway, he went under 90 10 times last season, including some abhorrent scores of 40 and 47, truly disgusting. He also has had some trouble actually playing footy, as he has missed a total of 11 out of a possible 66 games in the last 3 years, some through injury, some through suspension.

Ceiling – 3/5

James makes up for his poor consistency with a pretty good ceiling. Of his 9 tons last season, only 3 were below 110, and he went above 140 twice. When he’s impacting the game and PLAYING IN THE BACKLINE, he scores as well as any premo defender.

Value – 3/5

This review might be a bit tainted by my past frustrations with owning Sicily, but for the price he’s actually a pretty good pick-up for your starting squad. If he can stay on the park and get back to his 2018 average of 105, starting him could be one of the better moves you make this pre-season. Just don’t blame me when he scores below 50 and costs you 7 league wins and 10,000 ladder spots!

 

And there we have it, the defenders have been reviewed! Please let me know your thoughts on my ratings, and what you think about the crop of defensive premos we have this year. And most of all, thanks for reading!

 

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16 thoughts on “AFL SC – Premium Defenders”

  1. Love your work Ben!

    I remember at the end of last season I told myself that going into 2020; lock in those top Def & Mid premiums and don’t bother looking for value (outside Docherty of course!) and then go searching for the next Daniel/Marshall in the FWD line.

    However, as soon as the prices came out I realised the defensive premiums just aren’t as rosee as I thought they were.

    Lloyd – didn’t start him last year due to his price and promised myself I wouldn’t go another week without him once I traded him in. But those last 5 games which I believe saw him tagged a few games just stick in my mind. Zero value in his price and if those 5 games become a real trend, he will be an easy pick up for much cheaper. Emergence of Dawson who is more damaging but not as composed (because no one is) could also see him used less (slightly).

    Houli – Absolutely dominated me late in the season in my main cash league, but at his age, again I just don’t want to touch him.

    Hurn – was a revelation before the byes but again ended the year poorly and at his age you wonder if that’s something that will continue.

    Williams – I love this bloke, he was an absolute lock in my side last year. And I think he offers value again this year whether he plays Mid or Def! Of course having to pay a high price after the cheap price he was last year will put many (including me) off. Which makes zero sense.

    Daniel – Mr. consistent but there is always the worry that the opposition after reviewing the year decide to just ask a small forward to run with him a bit. As a Dogs fan I feel he’s a safe pick, but he’s priced accordingly.

    Stewart – Another player who everyone in my mini league seemed to own late on which led me to watch quite a bit of him. I actually think he could up his avg again this year. So impressive and he’s one of those players who really gets value in every touch. (Swear he was scoring 10+ for every disposal in 1 match).

    Laird – Think he will be really highly owned this year due to his price, but I just see no reason to pick him. Living in SA, I watch most of the SA games and he was just no where last year for majority of matches. A few big quarters here and there but I don’t really see why he reaches his past heights. Of course the new coach could have an effect, but with there highly criticised lack of pace, I think players like Milera & Smith will continue taking disposals off him.

    Sicily – Such a frustrating player, I actually really like him! Think he’s a really good interceptor and one of the most damaging kicks in the game! But he seems to have this really bad mixture of being a hot-head but also laid back… which leads to him giving away free kicks or being suspended but also not really taking over games like he can and has at times in the past. Definite value but risky.

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  2. Great stuff Ben, thanks.
    Will be starting Zac (I love him too) and Tom Stewart. If I were to start a third premo, it’d be Laird or Daniel. I’m not going to start either because of the uncertainty surrounding new coach and BULB (bugger you …) respectively.
    Besides there are a few cheaper value options, who are ahead as they will offer BOTH points AND cash to upgrade to fallen premos as and when.
    Lloyd and Houli (the face of this year’s Tigers’ membership) are both very much on my radar, but as you rightly point out, I’d put money on them being significantly cheaper than their starting prices down the track. If not, I’ll just have to pay for it.
    Thanks again Ben. Great stuff and looking forward to the next instalment.

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    1. Not surprisingly, I again agree with the great As…Williams and Stewart only locked premos, but will add Doch, hopefully Roberton, either of Dawson or Rampe, and goodness knows who else.

      Brilliant work Ben….never too early for SC planning.

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  3. Great work Ben! I’ll be starting Sicily this year, because I’m sick of shaving my head and watching him play saves me from having to do that, if you catch my drift…

    by the way, you’ve never seen Seinfeld? YOU’VE NEVER SEEN SEINFELD??!!! Get the hell outta here.

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    1. I’m a youngin’ Chillo, when the last episode aired I was only a few weeks old! Just a bit before my time unfortunately.

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  4. Playing around with a lighter in defense, so I can go heavier down forward. This’ll mean a choice between Williams and Daniel at D1, Docherty at D2, and then Doedee/Roberton at D3. Anyone looking at a similar setup?

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    1. Sort of, bAps.

      Thinking of going light up forward instead so I can grab a 6 premo MID and 3 DEF premos plus Dodee and Roberton. Problem I’m running into is that I’ll be fielding more FWD rookies than I’d like; can’t see Flanders, Rankine, King, etc. collecting bags of goals at the Suns.

      So I might give your set up a whirl.

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    2. Am heavily considering
      D1: Stewart
      D2: Docherty
      D3: Doedee
      D4: Roberton

      5 premiums in midfield

      2 premiums and 2 punts in the fwd line.

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    3. Yes very similar bAps. But I’m thinking if I go down this path that 1 premium needs to be durable. So Stewart of Lloyd for me (for reasons Ben listed)

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