AFLW Fantasy – Stats & Player Reviews

Written by The Salamander on February 7 2020

The prices for this year’s competition were initially based on each player’s most recent average. Those who have missed a lot of football were given a discount. Some others were tweaked, sometimes quite substantially (long story – I’ll explain later in the comments). The upshot of this is that some players are, based on past performance, relative under/overpriced. We can exploit that in our team selections.

To help with that, attached are two spreadsheets: one containing the most recent average of every 2019-listed player (note: some players may no longer be on an AFLW list, while others may have changed their names in the off-season), and one containing every SalamanderCoach score from every game in AFLW history, except the 2019 Finals Series.

I was going to provide some stats coverage for our contingency scoring options, but I have run out of time. If we do end up having to compromise on the scoring system, then I will get some stuff up about that. And hey, look at it this way: if it does come to that, everybody will be in the same position.

Update: we have all the stats. SalamanderCoach lives to score another season!

Most Recent Averages
All Historical Scores

Moving on, below is some commentary on a handful of players you may wish to consider.

PLAYERS:

Daisy Pearce

Club: Melbourne
Position: MID
Priced to average: 125
Most recent average: 145

This one is interesting. In Melbourne’s practice matches, she played across half-back instead of her customary midfield role. She has also been named there on the team sheet. At worst, she’ll probably average around about what she’s priced at, but it’s still worth keeping in mind.

Likely 2020 average: 120 to 130 if she plays half-back; 150 if she plays midfield.

Emma Kearney

Club: North Melbourne
Position: MID
Priced to average: 150
Most recent average: 156

About as reliable as they come. Presents decent, if unspectacular, value here.

Likely 2020 average: 160

Kiara Bowers

Club: Fremantle
Position: MID
Priced to average: 150
Most recent average: 202

The numbers say it all. Lock.

Likely 2020 average: 180 to 200+

Karen Paxman

Club: Melbourne
Position: MID
Priced to average: 150
Most recent average: 160

An interesting one. If Daisy Pearce slots back into the midfield, then expect her averaged to drop back to its 2018-level. On the other hand, if Pearce plays predominantly across half-back, as she did in Melbourne’s practice matches (and as she has been named to play on the team sheet), then Paxman may well hold her 2019 average.

Likely 2020 average: 160 if Perace stays back; 130 if Pearce plays midfield.

Elise O’Dea

Club: Melbourne
Position: MID
Priced to average: 100
Most recent average: 125

Has always averaged around that mid-120s to mid-130s mark, with or without Daisy Pearce in the side. Manifestly underpriced. Lock.

Likely 2020 average: 125

Sabrina Frederick

Club: Richmond
Position: FWD
Priced to average: 125
Most recent average: 95

Formerly known as Sabrina Frederick-Traub. Coming off a down year by her standards, I still think she’s a tad overpriced. Richmond will likely play a much faster, more forward-friendly brand of football than what she had to deal with at Brisbane, but I’m not sure it will be enough for her to average what she’s priced at, much less more than that.

Likely 2020 average: 100 to 120.

Katie Brennan

Club: Richmond
Position: FWD
Priced to average: 100
Most recent average: 91

Playing midfield this year. Lock.

Likely 2020 average: 130

Darcy Vescio

Club: Carlton
Position: FWD
Priced to average: 87.5
Most recent average: 83

This is another role-dependent one. She spent some time in the midfield during last year’s Grand Final, and looked damn good there. She also played midfield in the VFLW last year. She rotated between deep forward and high half-forward in Carlton’s practice matches, though she has been named in the centre on the team sheet. One to watchlist.

Likely 2020 average: 80 to 90 if she mostly plays forward; 120+ if she gets significant midfield minutes.

Nina Morrison

Club: Geelong
Position: MID
Priced to average: 125
Most recent average: 167 (1 game)

Scored 167 on debut, then did her ACL. It’s a small sample size, but based on that, she offers good value, albeit with some risk.

Likely 2020 average: 135 to 150.

Maddy Prespakis

Club: Carlton
Position: MID
Priced to average: 125
Most recent average: 136

2019 Rising Star, 2019 Carlton B&F, 2019 All-Australian, and future GOAT. Should take her game to another level this year.

Likely 2020 average: 140+

Chloe Molloy

Club: Collingwood
Position: FWD
Priced to average: 100
Most recent average: 116

After an outstanding debut season in 2018, Molloy missed all of 2019 with a serious foot injury. She is slated to mostly play forward this year, whereas she played in defence in 2018. It remains to be seen how this will affect her scoring.

Likely 2020 average: No idea.

Isabel Huntington

Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: FWD
Priced to average: 75
Most recent average: 78

Is slated to play across half-back this year. Expect the former number 1 pick’s numbers to increase as a result.

Likely 2020 average: 85 to 95.

Erin Phillips

Club: Adelaide.
Position: MID
Priced to average: 150
Most recent average: 205

Still recovering from the ACL she ruptured in last year’s Grand Final, Phillips will miss the first few rounds of the season. However, you should keep a close eye on her when she returns. She may spend more time forward, which could hurt her scoring slightly, but there’s more than enough wiggle room between her implied and actual averages that she should present good value.

Likely 2020 average: If mostly playing midfield, 180+; if mostly playing forward, 150-ish.

I questioned in my last article whether or not guns and rookies was the best approach for this format; given the tightness of the salary cap, however, it may yet prove to be the best way of getting value into your team.

Don’t forget to that the lockout is at 6:40 PM AEDT tonight. And don’t forget to join our league – the code is supercoachtalk. If you haven’t signed up yet, head on over to https://sheplays.com.au/aflw right now before it’s too late.

Speaking of which, we are still looking for sponsors for our league. If you are interested, please get in touch via salamander [at] supercoachtalk [dot] com.

Also, be sure to join the SuperCoachTalk AFLW tipping league! Sign up at https://aflwtipping.afl; the league code is XKMN6VC3.

Good luck!


1
0


Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom

8 thoughts on “AFLW Fantasy – Stats & Player Reviews”

  1. Joined the tipping. I haven’t watched much in the past hoping to increase that during the season. Let’s go Tigs tonight.

    0

    0
  2. Read this 5 minutes before lockout and saw that Bowers piece and i was in a frantic rush to get her in. Hoping i haven’t be lured into a trap…….

    0

    0
  3. My apologies to any Richmond fans (and to any neutral fans who were hoping for a close contest)…. but damn that was beautiful!

    0

    0
    1. Took a look at this line-up and was a little surprised on how you were approaching the ruck situation. Having a ruck on the field at 20K and then 1 on the bench at 25k. Assuming they will be swapped each week depending on opponents they play.
      Also seeing 5 Carlton players in the team, therefore unable to bring in anymore unless you make a straight swap. Many did well last night so have the right players been picked or was it a 1 off performance?

      0

      0
  4. BIG NEWS: We have all the stats. SalamanderCoach lives to score another season!

    To be quite honest, I’m not sure whether I’m happier about this or belting Richmond. Suffice it to say this has been a very good day. 😀

    2

    0

Leave a Reply to The Salamander Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *