Back To The Future – PART FIVE (Premium FWDs)

Written by Schwarzwalder on March 9 2019

(Written & Created By Hot Sauce)

In Part 5 of Back to the Future the Premium Forwards are now under the microscope, with a reminder that a 2018 post-bye average is the basis for the discussion.


Premium Forwards:


Josh Dunkley (WB, $516,300)


 The courageous young Midfielder made a real name for himself last season after spending a few weeks in the VFL. I’m not sure how the Doggies keep developing these types, but he is a typical Doggies midfielder; strong, hard, brave and loves to be in the thick of the contest. The contested possession beast also has proven to be a valuable resting forward who attacks the footy and the contest with vigour, picking up plenty of SC points through contested possessions and tackles.

Dunkley started the season averaging 15.8 disposals, 5.2 tackles and 77.1 SC points between rounds 1-9 before going back to the VFL. Once he returned, he flicked the switch and averaged 27.4 disposals, 6.6 tackles and a huge 111.3 SC points. He continued his improvement until the end of the season averaging 117.1 across the last 8 games and 127.8 across the last 4 games. This stint included 7 tons, 3 scores of 130+ and a high of 157. That is mouth-watering for someone priced at 95.1!

If Dunkley retains his midfield role, which could be threatened by the inclusion of Libba this year, he should be a lock for the season. Watch carefully in JLT2 after a mainly outside role in JLT1.


Jack Riewoldt (Ric, $504,100)


Jack is a premiership star, two-time best and fairest winner, three-time Coleman medallist and three-time All-Australian, yet is currently only in 4% of SC teams. This is due to coaches being historically scared off by all key position forwards, whether it be Buddy, JJK, Tomahawk or Jack, us coaches seem to hate starting with them, preferring to chase the midfield type forwards who offer us more consistency in their performances. My theory is, there is always room for one key forward, due to their ability to score huge on their day and if fit, end up finishing the season as a Top10 FWD. I think Jack is our guy this year.

Traditionally, the key forward spot in our line-ups would be saved for a fallen premo, now whether you wait for him or start with him, Jack is someone to consider, and his post-bye numbers prove it.

Jack averaged a respectable 84.7 SC points (minus injury impacted game) but excelled post-bye to average 109 including his two finals appearances. There was a low of 60 while everything else was 80+ including six 100+ games with a top of 219! His post-bye average equates to a 13.2% increase over his 2018 SC average (minus injury game) and 17.4% increase over his 2019 starting price.

The inclusion of Tom Lynch into the side can also benefit Riewoldt and allow him to rotate between playing a goal square target (less likely to have a 2nd defender floating across) and a further up the ground forward to link with the midfield and attacking defenders, thus allowing for more goals or possessions respectively.



Honourable Mentions



2018 post-bye avg

vs 2019 Price

vs 2018 avg


















Chad Wingard (Haw, $481,800)

Nobody would have thought that Chad Wingard would be traded just a few years ago.  Despite there being some questions around his game the Hawks quickly offloaded an emerging player in Ryan Burton to make the deal happen. The Hawks rarely make mistakes with recruits. The mad genius that is Clarko obviously rates the dual All-Australian and can hopefully get the best out of the prodigious talent.

Last year Wingard started mainly as a forward who had stints in the middle and his SC scores suffered accordingly, averaging a lowly 72.6pts. During this time, he averaged 15.8 disposals and 1.0 tackle per game. After the bye Wingard’s role changed to majority midfield time and his averages increased to 23.4 disposals and 4.8 tackles per game. This increase in productivity while only slightly dropping his goal scoring output resulted in a post-bye average of 98.5, an increase of 11.2% on his 2018 overall average and starting price for this year.

Wingard was in 23% of teams prior to his injury news and is now down to 6%. He is one to definitely keep an eye on as an early upgrade target as he should flourish under Clarko and in a team that cold do with an injection of X-Factor into the middle of the ground.


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18 thoughts on “Back To The Future – PART FIVE (Premium FWDs)”

  1. Danger and Heeney are a lock for me, that F3 spot im finding impossible to fill. Keeping swapping between Smith, Dunkley and Menengola but just not confident in anyone really


  2. Thanks HS. I really like the Riewoldt pick for that troublesome F3 spot. Yes, Jack is a KPF, but he’s reasonably consistent for someone in that role and he just does not miss games (three in 8 years!).
    The big attraction as I’ve mentioned before is the bye round – there are 16 forwards starting at $500K+ this year, and the only one with the bye in Round 14 is Jack. That could be very useful at the back end of those three weeks of pain in the middle of the year.
    I also think that Lynch coming in, and the new 6-6-6 rule, will only help Riewoldt. Now, I just have to find the courage to actually pick him!


    1. Thanks Hot Sauce. Good stuff. I like both Dunkley and Riewoldt, but won’t be starting either. For different reasons.
      Mr Magnets simply cannot be trusted, to have faith in Dunkley being consistent enough to be top6 come season’s end. Riewoldt had such a good back half to 2018, that now I want to wait for a price drop before picking him up.

      While KPFs are fraught with risk, I do think the 6-6-6 rules will help those who are:
      – in a side that dominate Centre Clearances
      – are strong and dominant in one-on-one contests and
      – have good G:BH set shot ratios

      Buddy, JJK, Jackaroo or even a Darling-type could be pushing for three figures this year. THAT would be massive and what the AFL wants to see.


  3. Also, is anyone considering Darling for a forward spot? Was superb last year before he got injured, and as stated above by AllSaints, 6-6-6 should help him take more marks and kick more goals, which is where he got a lot of his point last year. Seriously considering him for M3-M4 at this point.


    1. He’s in the mix, for sure. Still nowhere near a decision and if I can’t find one before Rd1, will likely go Worpel at F3 and a fallen midpricer at F4 (eg one of Moore, Kent, Weideman, Ratugolea or even Greene etc.).
      I don’t want Setterfield playing any higher than F5 with what’s looking like an increasingly poor DECENT cow offering in the FWD line.
      Will have to wait and see …


    2. Darling interesting. Looking at his scores last year there is a 42, 14, 39 and a -1 that must all be from injury games or maybe a stinker or two. I think the 42 and maybe the 39 were just quiet games.

      Without those his average is up above 100. Could be a great pick at that price.


    3. J Darling:
      Averaged 96.94 when the 2 injury affected games are excluded (14 and -1)

      Kicked multiple goals in 12 of 18 games and averaged 110.58 from those 12 with 5/12 below 100 and 4/12 120+.


  4. This is a joke right? Maybe a bit of sarcasm? Or is it a deliberate attempt to shaft those rookie coaches who don’t do any research?
    Nobody who finishes in the top 1,000 will start any of these three, for reasons that have been well documented all over the web. Dunkley will be 70-80% forward, Wingard hahahahaha, Riewodlt has the temperament of a 2year old and as soon as Lynch starts taking his glory,, well the toys, dummy and blankets will be thrown from the cot


    1. It’s just giving you some things to think about, I don’t think anywhere in the article did Hot Sauce say “PICK THIS GUY HE’S A LOCK UR AN IDIOT IF YOU DON’T PICK HIM!!!1!”.

      Since you’re such a genius (your words not mine), why don’t we hear who you’re considering to pick, and then instead of providing constructive criticism if we disagree, just ask if you’re joking, provide no reasoning as to why we think it’s a bad pick other than “hahahahaha”, and tell you that you won’t finish top 1,000 if you start any of those blokes.

      You never have to agree with anything written on this site, or anything written on anything on the internet ever, but there is a right and wrong way to voice your disagreement.


    2. SCGenius,
      The premise of this series from Hot Sauce is to highlight those players that finished 2018 with an average score much higher than their starting price suggests. These players aren’t necessarily Hot Sauce’s starting line-up, but they follow the guidelines of his premise.
      We’re all about getting as much information out there on as many players as possible. In the end, it’s your team and you’re responsible for your team.
      One of our great strengths here at SCT is that literally anyone can submit their write-ups for publication. It’s extremely rare that I turn anything down. If you feel there are more players that could be focused on in relation to this premise, then you can always send your write-up through to me. Thanks…….


    3. Cheers for the feedback SCGenius. No attempt to lure anyone in, just presenting the data from post-bye 2018. Good luck this season!


  5. I’ve toyed with Jroo in my starting team- strong playing history and I had him as my last upgrade last season. The 200 plus score vs GC was epic. He was part the reason I ended up finishing 259th last year.
    He is probably better suited as an upgrade target, just wait until he plays GC, and if it’s at the MCG vice captain him.
    Thanks for these write ups mate



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