Ballsy Moves – Mitch Duncan (GEE)

Written by Schwarzwalder on March 9 2018


Position: MID

Price: $603 700


Duncan finally produced in 2017 what many SCT Coaches had been predicting for years……a breakout season.  A 110avg from 21 games plus a 131, 144 & 110 during the Club’s three Finals matches were testament to a solid year.  Duncan’s biggest strength was his consistency, with the midfielder collecting at least 24 disposals in every game of 2017…….not a bad effort that.

Or was it a case of being ‘allowed’ to roam free?  Opposition taggers constantly head to Dangerfield or Joel Selwood on a weekly basis leaving Duncan to run around unchecked.  Is it any wonder then that he finally had a breakout season?

And now there is the return of Gary Ablett Jr.  What effect will that have on Duncan?  The Geelong midfield is also stacked with further talent in Menegola, Guthrie and Scott Selwood (when fit).  There have been instances of three elite Supercoach midfielders coming from the same team (Collingwood – Pendles, Swan & Beams or even Sydney – JPK, Hanners & Parker)………..but four?  Seems like a stretch, even if the Cats got close last year (2017: Dangerfield – 135ppg, Duncan – 110, Selwood – 102, Menegola – 100).

Joel Selwood’s numbers were well down in comparison to previous years, you’d be a brave man to back against him bouncing back this year however.  Ablett probably won’t play 22 games this year, but you’d still expect a decent average from The Great One.  You’d think that Dangerfield would be pushing over 125+ average once again.  So where does that leave Duncan? At a starting price of $603k, he’ll provide you with a massive POD but is more expensive than Z.Merrett, Neale, Fyfe, Pendles, The Bont, JPK and many more.  At that price, you really want to be sure of an elite keeper for the season.  Is there a spot in your starting line-up for Mitch Duncan?


Risk Rating: On a scale of 1-5……1 being safe & 5 being extremely dangerous……  Mitch Duncan – Two Higgos!  No question about job security or durability, only about level of output.  Is it good enough to finish ahead of value picks such as Pendles, JPK & Joel Selwood? Got my doubts…….


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3 thoughts on “Ballsy Moves – Mitch Duncan (GEE)”

  1. 0.9% ownership says it all BUT for the stats nerds out there:

    Of the 18 midfielders who averaged 105+ in 2017, Mitch Duncan was the most consistent in terms of standard deviation*, ahead of the likes of Tom Mitchell and Clayton Oliver.

    * thanks to Nath’s magnificent stats page.


  2. I had him locked in the day SC opened
    Finished last year with a 10 round average (including finals) of 122, which was the same as Tom Mitchell.
    If anything I think the Ablett addition helps his cause. Zero chance of a tag, and I don’t believe point stealing is a thing for elite players.



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