Ballsy Moves – Who Am I?

Written by Schwarzwalder on March 15 2018

(Written By Kid81)

 

I have been visiting SCT since about 2010 and
interacting for the last 3-4 years. I have never really thought
about writing anything however this year I have noticed a player
going completely under the radar. In fact, I have not seen his name
mentioned on SCT or any other site.

WHO AM I?

In his debut 2016 season, he played 13 games for an average of 69.6
points. This included 5 scores above 85 in a stretch from round 10
to 23. Pretty decent for a rookie but not for a cash cow given the
late run.

Starting at $117,300 and finishing at $363,100, we should have been
talking about him. We probably didn’t notice him though as he only
played round 1 and 2 to average 47 points and was omitted for Rds
3 to 9. Returning in Round 10, he averaged 56.5 over four games
prior to the Bye.  At this time he had only gone up $100,000 and in
round 13, he had started to drop cash! Returning in round 17, over
the last 7 games he averaged 83.6 points. Not the best downgrade
option given he was over $220,000 but scored well if someone had
shown faith in holding him, had no trades left and needed cover.

He also went on to play the Finals and was the youngest dog on the
field for their Premiership! (Can you guess who it is?)

In 2017 he had an ankle injury (reconstruction) so did not get on
the park until Rd 4. He averaged 75pts over three games and then in
his 4th appearance, injured his shoulder keeping him out until
Rd 21.  Playing in three losses to GWS, Port Adelaide and the
Hawks meant he saw little of the ball as a forward and averaged only
57.3 points.

Jump to 2018 and the 21 year old is coming into Rd 1 having
completed a full pre-season. The Dogs obviously rate him highly
having given him Matthew Boyd’s number 5 in the off season. (Do you
know who it is yet?)

 

This year he is priced at $296,900 which is an average (breakeven)
of 54 points. Personally, I think the Dogs are over their hangover
and on the up. I saw him get some midfield time in the JLT and he
averaged 93.5 at 84% Time On Ground in his 2 JLT appearances. He
represents real value if he can average 80 points or more. As a
forward listed player, given the lack of confidence I have in this
years premiums and rookies, I will be starting him.

 

Who is it?  Josh Dunkley.

Position: FWD

Price: $296 900

 

Risk Rating: On a scale of 1-5……1 being safe & 5 being extremely dangerous……….Josh Dunkley – Three Higgos!  Adds depth to the Dogs line-up and still has plenty of good footy ahead of him.  Just not sure where he is in the pecking order.  Could quickly be dropped to the Reserves after one or two average performances.

 

Are your boys solid enough to start with Josh Dunkley (WBD)?

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Thanks very much to Kid81!Schwarzwalder

 

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15 thoughts on “Ballsy Moves – Who Am I?”

  1. Thanks Schwartz.

    Personally, I dont have trust in Buddy/JJK (consistency), Heeney (underdone), Billings (too many Saints competing for points/roles), Menegola (same as billings), Greene (Anger issues), Gray/Dixon/Wingard (round 10 bye). Like most of us, i am looking at McLean, Walters, Smith. This has left me with a bit of extra cash for my forward line.

    I know he won’t suit everyone’s structure but with the lack of rookies and genuine premos in the forward line, I hope to have him scoring 80’s and be a stepping stone around the byes. If he gets up to around the $440,000k mark then it might even save me a trade over the byes (the old 2 down, one up strategy in round 12 could be a one down, one up).

    Alternatively, and if i am lucky, I can hold him longer and have some great bench coverage at the business end of the season.

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  2. Great write-up, really interesting format of doing it.

    It’s a no from me though, that price point is just a killer. 230k and I’d be onboard but at almost 300k he just needs to score too well to be a good cash cow.

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  3. Saw how he went with the JLT and thought He’s going to be an up and comer.

    Seems to be holding Tom Boyd out of the side.

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  4. Hi Kid, I did pose the question to the SCTers in the previous two up as I have had him on the watch list for the preseason. The SCT poll came back about 20 – 7 against Josh showing that the major numbers preferred Bundy. I’m yet to be convinced to drop him.

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    1. I think he will still remain a POD but there is a strong chance that this is a breakout year for him. For me its about the value and the options that we have with him in the side should he get to that 80 ppg mark.
      If he fails to get above 55 though, that’s the risk. you can only go down to a rookie from there. you lose points on your money invested over a rookie price and a trade.
      Funnily enough, if he averaged 70-75 last year and was priced at $400,000; I think more people might be willing to pick him based on his JLT. I have been talking with a few mates about him and they seem more concerned about picking a $300,000k player based on price than looking at the stats.
      I see job security and a lot of potential.

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      1. Great spot Kid81, thanks for putting it out there.

        I’m a bit concerned there are too many doggy forwards and where they all fit, so it could be a bit of a revolving door. Dunks will probably get some midfield time but also be asked to play the 3rd tall role.

        Too much of a gamble for me and not sure how to squeeze him in anyway.

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  5. Josh is a local from my area and always showed great professionalism from a young age. He may well be ready to break out as he seems to be injury free this season. He is on my radar.

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  6. I had a good feeling who it was once you said he was a Bulldog, but I couldn’t remember his name. I was thinking to myself “You’re the guy was supposed to be a father/son pick for Sydney, but who instead was the first ever non-matched bid and went to the Bulldogs.”

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  7. Josh is a jet. Like all Doggies forwards Bevo wants him to have mid minutes. I just wish he was $50k cheaper. However he will earn money. I am seriously considering

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  8. He’s been on my radar, I might have only one space in my cheaper looking fwd line.
    Dunkley t/u V T. Bell t/d
    Thanks for any feedback

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  9. Really great write up. I’m steering away from dogs players, even though I’m tempted by McLean. I feel as though they play a very team orientated game where midfield minutes are shared. Great for the team. No so great for supercoach.

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