It wasn’t a dark and stormy night, but it should have been, when Dangerfield did his hammy. While making decisions is what SuperCoach is all about, how to cope with an injured gun is not a fun decision. Like it or not, most of us get to make it now. I immediately had a cunning plan, but it was in no way thought out, and lacking in data, so really no plan at all. So, math:
The Terminator Scenario (’cause He’ll Be Back) : If you keep Danger and wait for his return, you miss out on his 136 points a match. You get back the points from your M9, which I am going to be a little generous and assume is 61, which is one more than I normally would because round number and we do have decent mid rookies. So, you lose 75 points a match until he returns
The Great Pumpkin Scenario (“cause patiently waiting, and waiting) If you just get rid of him and spend the money, you lose nothing while he is out, assuming you can usefully use all the money, which is pretty likely. What you do lose is the ability to captain him when he returns. Assuming he returns at full strength, which I am. I am also assuming you have at least one or two guns to captain, like say Dusty or Tom Mitchell. (If not, why not? Hello McFly! You need captain candidates in this game!) If they average 116, which is a little lower than they did last season, then you are (probably) losing 20 points a round. I’ll do numbers for losing 25 points a round as well, in case you think 20 is not enough.
Now you may be thinking, “But Father, you’re not taking into account the trade I saved by keeping him in the Terminator scenario, which was a very clever name by the way”, which is a reasonable thing to think. I admit to optimism on the part about the scenario name. But really, would I miss something like that? Well, yes, but not this time. Also, I just mistook my coffee mug for the dish with the pumpkin seeds I was munching on, which was not clever and actually happened. Sigh. Anyways, having dried my fingers, in the Great Pumpkin scenario you are not spending a trade you wouldn’t have otherwise. Someone is going to be your first upgrade target, right? Well, having your first upgrade be Paddy just changes who you upgrade to. Start with Danger bring in Dusty as your first upgrade, or start with Dusty and bring in Danger as your first upgrade. Both take one trade. Both leave you with Danger and Dusty. The difference is the points you lose by not having Dangerfield to captain – which is what we calculated.
So, what about leaving a big pile of cash in the bank to bring him in with? That’s worse than starting with him. You have all that money not being used, and you are using a trade you would not otherwise have used.
How about using some of the money on someone like Coniglio, and saving the rest to bring him in? Well, $749,800 – $452,400 = $297,400. Unspent, that’s 54 points a round you are missing out on. If we assume Coniglio averages 100, then you are still missing out on the points from money in the bank, you are just getting good value for what you spent on Stephen Coniglio, who has SC as his initials I see. Cool. Now SC may slowly go up in price, but the longer Danger is out the more points you are losing to the bank. If we assume a 106 for SCon, which is best-ish case, then you are 45 points better than having Danger on the bench per week, and down a trade when you bring him in since upgrading Coniglio to Danger is not your normal first upgrade.
So, almost time for a side by side comparison. First we need to figure out when you would be able to harvest cows to bring in Danger, which is not dependent on when he comes back. Short answer Round 7 to Round 8. Let’s assume R8, can also calculate for R9 just to be safe.
We also need to value a trade in points. I like to use 150. Cases can be made for 100 or 200; which is why I’ll use 150.
At first glance you are always better off using Coniglio rather than keeping Danger on the bench, but that ignores the value of the trade. If Danger is out 1-2 rounds, and you get a 106 average from SC, you are paying a trade for 45 or 90 points. Blah. If he is out three rounds, it is a trade for 135 points. Meh. At four rounds, you are probably a little ahead at 180 points for the trade. Of course if SC goes for 96, then Danger has to be out 5-6 rounds before you are getting ahead, again not by much. Danger has to be out a long time for taking Coniglio and saving the difference in cash is clearly better than just starting with Danger.
“Bench” is baseline bench from above, “SC #s” are points improved from the bench. So, “SC 96” out for 3 is 105 points better than “bench” out for 3. Trade value not included.
How about Coniglio v. spending it all elsewhere? If we take the most pessimistic case, loss of 25 a round and no Danger until Round 9, then if Danger is out one round you are 170 points ahead at the cost of a trade, and it gets worse every week from there. Ick. How much worse? If Danger is out five rounds, you are paying a trade for *negative* savings. And if SC scores at 96, you’re negative after just 4 rounds…..double-ick.
“R9-25” is baseline bring in Danger on Round 9, with a cost of 25 a week, from above. “SC #s” are points improved from the R9-25. So, SC 96 out for 3 is 30 better than bench out for 3. Trade value not included.
How about bench vs spend? Bench is better if he is out one round. If he is out two rounds, it is pretty much even. If he is out more than two weeks spend is better, getting increasingly better each round.
“Bench” v. “Best case Coniglio” v. “Medium case Spend” Cost of trade included in “SC 106” at 150 pts.
So, my first thought was 100% wrong. A part spend is never the best option.
Another possible advantage of the spend plan is if someone gets hurt, you may be able to bring in Danger as their replacement. That would reduce the cost as calculated, since you would be getting him back early. Also, the spend plan gives you more points. The cost is lost points from loss of him as a captain option. But that is also not certain. Gawn could go big, so could some mids. You might lose fewer points than the 20-25 I used in the calculations. The cost of Bench and the part spend are sure lost points, the costs of the spend option are lost captain opportunity, and may not end up lost.
I’m going to sell Danger and use all the cash to improve the rest of my team. I’ll be sure to have at least three good captain options and a loophole. If I have money left over, it will be about the same as the money I was planning to have left over with Dangerfield. And now, thanks to math, I won’t be stressed about that decision.
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