Father Dougall is back to tell you what to do with your cows and making a few daring predictions along the way. These posts are so good we’re going to make them weekly. Lets hear it for Father!
This week and cows; rhymes with clucking bell……some good news but a lot of bad news and unexpected difficulties.
I’d be happy to add players I am not currently writing up, please ask in Comments. I added Lonie this week, since he seemed relevant.
Oxley shows why I shouldn’t make predictions. Last week I said “I think he will at the very worst hold his value until W12, and he will probably go up from $10-30k” So, yeah. In the words of Max Bialystock – “WRRROOOOOOOOOONG!” His completely unexpected 25 is going to cost him and that assumes he goes back to playing full time. With a breakeven of 96, which will go up a few points next round even if he makes it this round, he will need two strong performances in a row to hold his price. (Notice how I cleverly wrote that to avoid a prediction? ‘Cause I don’t think he’ll make it but I wanted to avoid saying that. Except I just didn’t. Damn.)
Brown left my team last week,but I expect there are people who still have him. He’s lost most of what he was likely to lose already, and if he keeps to his season average of 50 he’ll be hold his value until his R12 bye. I don’t see much reason to move him now and with his low value he won’t be hurt as badly as most players by an unexpectedly bad score. Since a surprise big score for him is something over 65, he does have a shot at going back up in price. I am wondering now if it was worth a trade to harvest him. He really hadn’t made much.
McIntosh is still going nice and smoothly to his W11 cull, assuming he ends up being culled. With so many cows needing urgent attention it’s possible that with his happy surprise 98 he’ll end up staying around. We’ll know after next week. Of course he’ll face the Eagles, Swans, and Giants after the bye. His 98 came against the Bombers, so he could certainly keep up his 70 average and make about $46k through the byes. At 70 each week he would make about $20,800, (Bye), $21,500, and $3,700. No point in trying to decide before we see his next score.
Saad managed a 78 vs the Swans, and if he can keep to within 13 of his season average of 84 for two more matches he’ll hold his new and improved value until W12. I still expect to trade him out on his bye. If he somehow kills it over his next two matches I might (might) think of keeping him but week 12 is the biggest week for upgrading, and I will want to add premiums who just had their W11 bye, and I’ll most likely need to let him go for that.
McKenzie scored a 48, which still leaves him lots of room to grow. If he gets 50’s the next two weeks, he’ll go up $15,500 and $5,800. He only needs 31s to stay even until W12. No need to take action, just let him grow until you want to harvest him. I don’t really know what his ceiling is but if he is on your team then wait and find out with me. He’s really not grown enough to be written up, but I did last week so I am keeping on.
Ellis-Yolman had a great week,which was no surprise since I had him on the bench. Making 103 against Fremantle, that was a surprise. He has really been putting up numbers and I am again wondering if he might end up staying past his bye. His average of 88 and a bit has him going up $11,700 and then, after the bye, $20,500 and $8,800. He’ll face Carlton next week and if he pounds out a big score against them he may have too much left to make for me to trade him out. But if not him, then who? Have to get cash from somewhere. Or maybe, with limited trades, it is worth waiting for full ripeness. We’ll see how he goes next week. Apparently he is a vegetable cow, since usually it is fruits and veggies that get ripe. Not any of my business really.
Cripps dodged the wombats this week and made 91. That put him up a little, although now he needs 100 to break even before W11. It is definitely not urgent to trade himout – unlike so many others. I think what to do with him really depends on your situation. He is an obvious guy to upgrade from, but maybe he is a keeper. Someone has to play midfield for the Blues after all, and he looks like the man.
Miller managed to keep about average with his 63, but his breakeven is up to 100 now. Watch me not predict he won’t make that against the Swans. If he makes his season average of 72 the next two matches he’ll lose $11,000 and $4,900 W10 & W11. If he does a 3rd and 4th score of 63 he’ll drop $14,700 and $11,500. He is a candidate for immediate culling. Again, a lot depends on who else you have and what else you need to do.
Vandenberg made a solid 74 and went up $19k. He’s still looking at a big rise $29,200 even if he only gets another 74 next week, because his 37 drops out of his three week average. Still looks worth holding until his bye and you should keep him one more week for sure with the price rise due. Just a 5 breakeven after all.
Hogan was the Demon cow to go big(ish) this week with a 90. He’s also due a big rise, followed by much smaller ones thereafter, unless he goes big etc, etc see Vandenberg. They are pretty much in the same place. The main effect of his big week is to leave him enough closer to his value price that he will top out after W12 unless he goes way big in his remaining pre-bye matches.
Clark made friends with a wombat this week, going out hurt after a meager 39. Now he needs to beat his average of 64 just to keep his value to his W13 bye. Next week, or rather the next week he plays, he’ll only need a 55 to stay even, but the week after that he loses that 89 from his 3 round average, and that could see him drop. If he is just out next week, that’s not too bad, since you hopefully have cover, but if he is out over the byes that is bad since we want playing players. We’ll need to know how badly he is hurt before knowing what to do. He at least can’t lose value if he does not start.
Krakouer (obscene verbed) a wombat so hard they got engaged afterwards. (Extremely obscene exclamation!) With an 18 this week and a 38 lastweek, his price is set to plummet. If you hold him long enough and he goes back to his early season form, he could end up making you some cash still. If he keeps to his season average of 63 and change, he’ll go something like -$19,300, -$4,200, $15,300, $11,100, and $7,900. Shockingly tolerable. But….if he is vested again, and goes for a 25, he’ll lose $35,300! (Obscene exclamation!) I do want to know what the story on him is, but he sure seems headed out the door this round right now.
Tarrant managed a decent 68, and while he is likely to drop a little next week, he is still looking good to rise between now and his bye, since his 36 goes away after this week. I’m planning to hold him and sell him at his W13 bye.
Lonie has lost most of what he is going to lose, and after whatever he drops this week he should start going back up. If you have him, I’d just keep on holding on since you have already been through the worse of it.
Random Cow Thoughts:
I’ve tentatively decided to consider someone a cow and thus worth a write up after they have played 5 games and are priced over $250,000. Until they manage both of those they are just a calf. I suppose there may be a need to consider veal someday, but we’ll see what happens. If someone actually gets to thepoint where I feel they should be kept I’ll declare them a steer and stop covering them. I don’t think that will happen often, but you never know. Cripps maybe? [Ed: definitely Barlow a few years ago]
I am hoping that one of Oxley, Miller, and Krakouer do not play this week, since I have all three and I would like to avoid losing money on them. If they all do, I plan to keep Krakouer and hold him until his 18 is out of his system and he has a shot at being worth something. His price is not really high enough that I want to use a trade to get rid of him now. I might even be better off holding him until he either is worth trading in or becomes a loophole. He has only made $171,000 so far. (How much is enough?) I’m also wondering if I should just keep B Goodes, since I’ll make so little from trading him in. I think I may want that trade later for actually making money or dealing with an emergency. The Dogs are decent for loopholing…..and “loopholing” is now a word, ’cause I just made it one.
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