Cow Talk – R3

Written by Father Dougal on April 13 2016

Small or Far Away – Father Dougal on Cows

Another week of data, and more frantic fiddling with numbers. I wasted a fair amount of time this week thanks to a missing set of (), but am at least feeling good that I figured the problem out with enough time left to run some useful numbers.

The biggest thing I found was the breakevens from Supercoach do appear to take the money supply expansion price drops into account this season, and while they were not 100% accurate, they were close enough to be useful, at least last week. I’d like to see that trend keep up before I reach a firm conclusion, but so far so good. The predictions are more accurate the higher the player’s price, which I suspect is rounding error related but I don’t know for sure. Papley, for example, remains an outlier, but not by enough to stop projections for him being useful.

Last week I concluded the SC multiplier was about 0.9875 and the real one appears to be about 0.986.  That 0.0015 difference means about a $900 difference for a player prices at $600,000.  There is a good argument for trying to figure this out being a waste of my time given the small variances, but it interests me so what the heck. If nothing else I have hopes of improving my season price projection sheet for future years. And I don’t know yet if their SC projections are going to stay accurate(ish) or not.

CT 3

Above is the actual sheet I used for this week. I calculated the price with no Multiplier (#) and the price with 0.9875 and also a R4 price using a multiplier based on the SC BE. I also compared the SC projected score R4 prices using that multiplier against the SC price gain/loss projection. They came out pretty close.

It looks like the SC multiplier for next week is about 0.986. If not, it is close to that. If I have time I’ll test that more, but I am seeing this as a big project for the off season right now. Hopefully my saving the projection and BE web pages each week will work and I’ll have the data to crunch before 2017. (Arrgh)  I’m also thinking I will need to use high priced players for calculating as much as possible, since there is less issue with rounding. And if I pick fewer players who miss the week after I run their numbers, that will help too!

Next week I’ll talk about when to harvest cows, which is far from an exact science but I can at least give pointers on, and after that I’ll be back to making projections since some cows will be be wandering towards ripe.

Looking at the above, I’m not feeling it so useful, so here’s something perhaps more interesting. For this round (and this round only) every point above or below a player’s breakeven is worth about $443 in price at the start of next round.

As always, if you have anything you want me to look into, please say so in the comments.

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10 thoughts on “Cow Talk – R3”

  1. All seems legit Father. The closer you get to the magic number the better off we will be in future rounds. I will look forward to your forecasts to get us closer to the final dance!

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  2. Nice work, FD!
    Since we’ve started doing the BreakEvens, a lot of Coaches have been asking for projected prices. For me, it’d be a little too time-consuming. But that reference of $443 per point (above/below) will come in handy if anyone asks. Thanks!!

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    1. Sorry, I can read it but it must vary depending on how you are looking at it. Fiona’s suggestion / link should work. If not let me know and I will see what I can do.

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  3. Hello Father!

    Long time reader, first time replier. Love your in depth analysis!

    I know you mentioned for people to keep an eye out for people hitting their breakeven to see if you can retrieve any data when a player should “theoretically” stay the same price.

    Although not this exact scenario, I have found a similar situation this weekend. Darcy Parish was projected to score 83 and, you guessed it, scored 83.

    He was projected to appreciate by 48.8k (which would leave him at 309.2k), I figure that if these projected figures are marginally false come price changes, it could (at the very least) prove your rounding error theory.

    Let me know if this helps!

    Love your work mate, Lesley

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    1. That does help, thank you very much! I’m very curious to see if he really breaks even and if not by how much.

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