Hi Everybody!

(Hi ~~Doctor Nick!~~ Father Dougal!)

Juddlow’s excellent Rookie Review is all about rookies and Cow Talk is about cows, meaning rookies who are making money; how much, and how much we can project over the next few weeks. I only discuss rookie stuff other than the cash growth if it happens to amuse me. Anyways, at this point in the season I can confidently say that every rookie will make $0.00 next week! A 100% accurate answer. Also, useless. Darn.

Well, there really isn’t enough data to make any sort of useful predictions. Trying to project out from one week would end up misleading people. So, I’m going to talk about some more general cow growth topics. You can expect this trend to continue as we wait for more data and some cows to show up. In fact, I’d like to hear what sorts of things you would like to read about over the next few weeks while we wait for meaningful cow data. If you have any suggestions please make them in the comments.

First we are going to look at how a variance from a flat average affects scores. Let’s assume a rookie costing $117,300 averages 60 aside from weeks 3-4 where he goes 70, 50. At the end of the season, his price will be off from a guy who goes 60 every week, but by less than $50. Someone going 80, 40 or 40, 80 would be off less than $100. So, the effect of that long term is not enough to worry about. There is some effect in the short term though. I picked round 8 because that is about as soon as this cow is ready to be harvested.

– 60-60 40-80 80-40

Round 8 $ 271,327 $274,181 $268,472

R8 Difference 60-60 to 40-80 = $2,855

R8 Difference 60-60 to 80-40 = $2,854

R8 Difference 40-80 to 80-40 = $5,709

(Round 6 is about $2,220 more pronounced for the top two and $4,440 for the bottom one)

This tells us that cows who have good and bad weeks end up with higher selling points than cows who have a stable output. We also see that having the high score later result in a higher price than having the high score sooner. So let’s spread out the off average scores and see what happens. I’ll put the first off average score in week 3 and the second one at week 6 so the effects of the first are fully priced in when the second happens.

– 60-60 40-80 80-40

Round 8 $271,327 $282,620 $260,034

R8 Difference 60-60 to 40-80 = $11,293

R8 Difference 60-60 to 80-40 = $11,293

R8 Difference 40-80 to 80-40 = $22,586

That’s more than I expected. The early scores were far outdone by the scores closer to selling time. Which makes me wonder what if there was only the early score that was off. Below with one off score, still in R3.

– 60 40 80

Round 8 $271,327 $263,059 $279,594

R8 Difference 60 to 40 = $8,268

R8 Difference 60 to 80 = $8,267

R8 Difference 40 to 80 = $16,535

Dang! Looking at the 40 from this chart compared to the 80-40 above there is only a $3,025 difference. Urk, and the 80-40 guy has a higher average but a lower price than the 40 only guy. The difference shrinks over time though, by R12 it is less than $1000.

MJ made a very important point in a comment that I want to repeat and test. “Round one scores only affect price changes for one price cycle.” The above examples all used Round 3 or later. What happens if you throw the 80 or 40 into R1?

– 60 40 80 20 100

Round 8 $271,327 $269,406 $273,247 $267,485 $275,168

R8 Difference 60 to 40 = $1,921

R8 Difference 60 to 80 = $1,920

R8 Difference 40 to 80 = $3,841

R8 Difference 60 to 20 = $3,842

R8 Difference 60 to 100 = $3,841

R8 Difference 20 to 100 = $7,682

So that 100 in R1 ends up being a less than $4k difference from a 60 by selling time. In fact, an 80 in R3 is more than twice as valuable than a 100 in R1. I’m glad I though to include this effect in my pre-season Cow Talk, Strength of Schedule calculations.

So, to sum up, early scores have little effect on the eventual selling price of a cow, especially R1 and R2. What really matters is how they have done in the weeks prior to selling, especially the score three weeks prior to selling. There is a long term effect from a bad start, but for cows it is pretty small.

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Thanks Father, Moneyball analysis Spot on. Gives us all hope for the rookies we own who produced low 50s and 40s in the first week.

so if a cow hits a good score in rounds 4-6 you should look to cull it in 3 weeks time

Thanks Father. It’s a good question from Chong . . . when is the ideal time to cull the cow? Lets compare Hewett from Syd scoring a 96 to an L.McCarthy that only scored a 42 (??? I think). If Georgy boy comes out in the next 3-4 weeks and scores sub 60’s, it’ll be comparable to Linc coming out and scoring 70+’s. This beggars the question – when do we offload these cows? Is it just a matter of watching the BE’s and assessing whether the player will attain that score? It’s good “beef jerky” to chew over, isn’t it?

any thoughts what rookies to play onground hewitt vs mills dea vs tippa

Spectacular!

Another excellent statistical analysis Father Dougal, they are most welcomed.

On the basis of your projections, it is clear that you are privy to the formula that is used to calculate the rolling 3 round price variation.

Is it possible to post the formula, so that we can all engage in some mindful/less statistical prognostications?